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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Now things are starting to get interesting:

Netweather GFS Image

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GFS 12z headed to Greenland, via a diversion route, here T204:

image.thumb.jpg.97e58dd802cd08460aa9b601dcd71a02.jpg

GEM a flavour of it too though more messy, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.eac462931581caddc98ac53573070d28.jpg

NH wise, good depiction of the state of the trop vortex in total disarray and the strat warming has yet to strike!

Edited by Mike Poole

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Gem ready to deliver the goods also all roads led to rome.

gem-0-240.png

Edited by booferking

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 12z headed to Greenland, via a diversion route, here T204:

image.thumb.jpg.97e58dd802cd08460aa9b601dcd71a02.jpg

Looks like an immediate trop response to the vortex being pushed to Siberia to me. 

 

Hopefully the ensembles follow but encouraging to see the oP go for this twice in a row.

Edited by Snowy L

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Knife age stuff to get that cold air over us by the 25th! Look at the GFS for the 24th...

Edited by Dave Kightley

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Well hello Arctic High -- come to Blighty. Pleaseeee!

image.thumb.png.b8b10b820a2bb85519741818143c80a1.png

😍

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So if this were to come to fruition on Christmas Day, GFS T252...

image.thumb.jpg.faefa45b2ca0cb84e2f3a47639e66bbb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3057b6cdbf51c896ca4a39205c107b02.jpg

I think a fair few might be waking up to a seasonal snowy scene! 

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9 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Knife age stuff to get that cold air over us by the 25th! Look at the GFS for the 24th...

Quite a lot of c. -13 uppers, away to our northeast?

Netweather GFS Image

It's a long and winding (and painful) road:

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone

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Well some strat second warming chart on  GFS at T384:

image.thumb.jpg.586faf71974d7e6d47294510ffa5b2f8.jpg

I think this one will go for the split, although if you look at the chart it looks like it'll split it 90:10, think it's more of the case of the models very gradually getting wind of the split and we will see this more and more in subsequent runs.

Edit, reason I think a split, remember the charts for the first warming, i.e. curvy, very much yin and yang, this one has a distinct corner about it - very similar to warming in Feb - this suggests to me the split is being smelled in the coffee!

Edited by Mike Poole

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GFS P has some temporary snow cover all the way down the country  and into the SE, there is a pocket of slightly milder air then cooler air sweeps in behind so could be rain > snow > freezing rain or something along those lines (a real nightmare for forecasters) 

tempresult_uwl7.thumb.gif.cdb2f38e1c87f0c06405bb7d23846e47.gif

gfs-2-30.thumb.png.1c5c1e48f27d6f03a5415db0d0c7ca5a.pngtempresult_aha9.thumb.gif.80e80798b9a4bdc28fa2ad034d95f6ca.giftempresult_aec5.thumb.gif.4a03d2a0c47e22aa9f3550c3fcb76a6c.gif  

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Yep... second, even stronger warming showing. (It was also there on the 06z) up to a toasty +12°c! 

Greeny high not as strong on this run but nothing to worry about, a variation of a theme. As long as that theme keeps showing up, it's all good. 

I never get too excited about snow prospects showing in the models until I see the same showing up in the Met Office forecasts.

This time, they are.... 😉 

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16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

300mb jet..

Is buckled and [email protected] south

And with the pressure synop on overide

(In a prime position)..

Its an -upper layer responce..and an exceptional placement-format...

THE TIME IS NIGH...!!!!

Indeed it is! Just look at this. GFS you naughty girl. 

gfseu-0-264.png

990c2623d7e180c8975041e9d503abea.jpg

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The risk of freezing rain, in the afternoon, in some parts of the UK is growing on the short term models, here's the situation at 3pm tomorrow, from the NMM 12z, the freezing rain is the purple hatched areas:

image.thumb.jpg.8c5c97e03feab0eaf186359affca6a86.jpg

If you are in the affected areas, please take care, this stuff turns everything into an ice rink, including roads even if treated with salt.

Edited by Mike Poole

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