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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

This chart should come with the sound of sleigh bells!

Netweather GFS Image

Great chart, there would be lots of happy people at Xmas should this happen 

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

This chart should come with the sound of sleigh bells!

Netweather GFS Image

I think this is the third GFS Ops run in a row that has brought in a white Christmas for many. 

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goodbye mild air on the 6z at 222 hrs. Going to be an interesting day imo.Watch the para join ecm and ukmo now🙄be worth bookmarking that 252 hr chart,its a classic

Edited by swfc
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3 minutes ago, swfc said:

goodbye mild air on the 6z at 222 hrs. Going to be an interesting day imo.Watch the para join ecm and ukmo now🙄

Yup and then watch ecm come on board and gfs go the other way!!and then in the end we get naff all lol!!!mind you today is cold still -1!!

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AT 162T , The GFS run shows the stark difference from the ECM. at the same time. GFS has trough disruption in the Atlantic with falling heights pushing towards NW Europe. A complete opposite to the lastest ECM run. I think looking at the UKMO chart for the same time, it also shows signs of disruption in the North Atlantic. So looks like ECM is out on its own with its pressure profile. 

C

GFSOPEU06_162_1.png

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Yes the 6z looks to be the start of the big freeze 2018-2019 and will be talked about for years from now..😅😜⛄

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Uh.. Gfs 06z makes it look so easy... And what a perfect Christmas it would be too if it happened 

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Another second warming of the strat again kaboom baby.....

gfsnh-10-372.png

gfsnh-10-384.png

Edited by booferking
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The key chart is the 144h chart on the 6z GFS.  The amplification and the significant gap between the two lows is what we want to see.  Limited support for such a solution at the moment.  Hopefully that will change on the 12z runs.

Edited by mulzy
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The potential for significant cold is there in FI, although it would still be very cold over Xmas - setting up a possible beast!!

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certainly the run of the season on the Gfs 6z    and would be a wonderful starter before ( hopefully) the Strat starts to play ball     The christmas miracle is on. 

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Netweather GFS Imagewell the gfs06z is a cracking run. Just look at that for xmas eve. Just need the ecm to stop be the scrooge of christmas past now.Come on gfs you can do it.

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GFS 06z is a cracker. Slices through Greenland and would give us Coldies a White Christmas. Plzzz GFS Dont screw this one up. We need to EC move towards this tonight.

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Has anyone got the temps/dew temps on that channel runner when it hits? I.e. would it be all snow from the South Coast up? I know it won't happen that way but it would be nice to dream (until the 12z!)

 

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2 minutes ago, tcc said:

Has anyone got the temps/dew temps on that channel runner when it hits? I.e. would it be all snow from the South Coast up? I know it won't happen that way but it would be nice to dream (until the 12z!)

Uppers would be around -5-7C, I'd guess? Nowt marginal about the grand finale, though:

Netweather GFS Image

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4 minutes ago, tcc said:

Has anyone got the temps/dew temps on that channel runner when it hits? I.e. would it be all snow from the South Coast up? I know it won't happen that way but it would be nice to dream (until the 12z!)

 

If its the low near the channel at 180   Dew points around 3/4   way to high. 

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there are ec clusters that could loosely fit with that gfs solution days 8/10, the usual op tease is too overstate the pattern at that range and then dilute it as time ticks down 

certajnly the flatter ec op is not necessarily the favoured option of the suite 

extended clusters are pretty indecisive offering a three way option of quite different solutions 

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10 minutes ago, tcc said:

Has anyone got the temps/dew temps on that channel runner when it hits? I.e. would it be all snow from the South Coast up? I know it won't happen that way but it would be nice to dream (until the 12z!)

 

ukmin.thumb.png.687b30d5e665d6a71927b38a44418062.pngUKMAX.thumb.png.b99faa805bc8a1fc41fe9e9c1ed9ea77.png

I haven't got NW Extra at the minute so maybe someone with it can dig out the DP's

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5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

24 hours on from yesterdays update (above post ) Basically no change in the output. UK will be back in cold by day 9. They think ECM will correct in its next run. Meanwhile , a bit cold on the mountain this morning, currently -10c in the location of the picture below.  Hope the weather turns seasonal for Christmas as I will be back in Blighty for a few days over the festive period before jetting off to Vancouver for a few weeks to see my new grandson.

C

93.jpg

Wow  great update.   This model  they use is it the one they use at the SACRA head office?.

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