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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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The pub run manages to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory .........

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Just now, Rocheydub said:

Is this an instantaneous reaction to the SSW?

 

Or a GFS brain fart!

I know downwelling from a SSW can be quite quick in some circumstances, but this is a bit extreme, it hasn't even happened yet, earliest date possible is Dec 24th, more likely few days later! 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not the former as it isn’t going to happen until after Boxing Day .......... if it happens ......

The predicted date of it....

 

Miss Marple couldn't work this out!

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Just now, bluearmy said:

The pub run manages to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory .........

Fabulous to watch tho ..

Some places would get cut off up north..

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There's that second strat warming showing again on the GFS very shortly after the first warming.

2nd.png

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Fabulous to watch tho ..

Some places would get cut off up north..

I like the general pattern - displace it a few hundred miles south and you have a seventies winter! 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The pub run manages to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory .........

Snow fest for the north! 

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Yes looking very  seasonal that chart bbc long range saying no sign of any cold  weather around Christmas  personally  still could change.😁

DF490232-1986-4EFF-B4B0-D52C1B2DD7FC.jpeg

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Absolutely fantastic post, @Catacol. As a rank amateur I (think) fully grasped your take on very complex science. 

The cold and snow bit did not lead to any bias whatsoever in this post 😉

Edited by Sperrin

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31 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What the -24s 1000 miles north, can't see anything else?  GFS T198

image.thumb.jpg.fe4e463c3411d9fba0baffbebb868f26.jpg

Like to see you put an argument forward that can't go wrong that gets that air here!  Nice thought though.

I hope someone doesn't have to eat their words later... 🙄

Iceland would be surely feeling it !

 

20181213_230413.jpg

Edited by BlazeStorm

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26 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

So, the GFS shows the peak of the first warming around 24/12/2018. Then the peak of the second warming around 28/12/2018. A good battering for the PV.

peak1.png

peak2.png

Yes, these look good, but they are repeated punches at a vortex that still exists, now matter how far displaced from the pole, what we need to see now is a second line, different attack, called wave 2 by the experts, that squeezes the vortex from both sides and annihilates it, no sign of it on the FI models yet! we watch for it...we expect it.

Edit GFS T384

image.thumb.jpg.e59158e8d44489b6a6ecf4d8dc5bae27.jpg

We need something from the opposite side to finish the sodding thing.  Watch this space.

Edited by Mike Poole

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1 hour ago, AppleUK 123 said:

A bit of an improvement with the GFS?

18_39_preciptype.png

Yh Midlands bk in the game. Although briefly but just happy to see some Snaw. Damm you More Snow i now love that word lol

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2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks bitter - thats how Warsaw should be late December ..

A big difference to how Warsaw is now, barely below 0C, although there was a touch of snow yesterday, but even that came down to nowcasting but glad I chose this week to visit. 

Luckily I'm back tomorrow in the more reliable Consett, Co Durham, for the real fun back home if would seem 😀

20181212_163020.jpg

20181212_155948.jpg

Screenshot_20181214-000207_Weather 14 days.jpg

Edited by geordiekev

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, these look good, but they are repeated punches at a vortex that still exists, now matter how far displaced from the pole, what we need to see now is a second line, different attack, called wave 2 by the experts, that squeezes the vortex from both sides and annihilates it, no sign of it on the FI models yet! we watch for it...

Aye. That being beyond the range of the model output at the moment. These warmings and the weakening and displacement of the PV should though make a split more likely further down the line should the wave 2 occur.

Edited by MattStoke

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15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, these look good, but they are repeated punches at a vortex that still exists, now matter how far displaced from the pole, what we need to see now is a second line, different attack, called wave 2 by the experts, that squeezes the vortex from both sides and annihilates it, no sign of it on the FI models yet! we watch for it...

Yes the second warming needs to take the pv down and reading between the lines on here and the 16 to 30 days meto I think that’s what’s gonna happen . 1st warming at Christmas = displacement . 2nd warming around new year = split vortex . That’s why , I think the meto update is going for early Jan . So the second warming is out of view on the outputs at the moment , give it 3 or 4 more days and we should start to see it in full swing . 🙂

Edited by ICE COLD

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15 hours ago, snowangel32 said:

Lottery numbers why youre at it plz.

The silly thing is that he wouldn’t get that sort of reply if he said he “had a feeling” that there was cold weather on the way.

 

The thing is as we’ve seen countless times before, background signals don’t guarantee anything for us on this little island which is usually in the firing line of the incessant Atlantic wind and rain. They increase our chances, but they don’t guarantee anything. How many times has the NAO looked favourable and we end up with high pressure just that bit too far west?

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ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

Good to at least some colder memmbers in the run up to Xmas

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5 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

The silly thing is that he wouldn’t get that sort of reply if he said he “had a feeling” that there was cold weather on the way.

 

The thing is as we’ve seen countless times before, background signals don’t guarantee anything for us on this little island which is usually in the firing line of the incessant Atlantic wind and rain. They increase our chances, but they don’t guarantee anything. How many times has the NAO looked favourable and we end up with high pressure just that bit too far west?

Sorry if i hurt your feelings it wasn't intentional. Will try to refrain myself in future okay. Now bk to models plz the hunt for Snow is on as its bloody freezing here so well and truly found the cold. 😁

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1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

Sorry if i hurt your feelings it wasn't intentional. Will try to refrain myself in future okay. Now bk to models plz the hunt for Snow is on as its bloody freezing here so well and truly found the cold. 😁

My feelings are unhurt, don’t worry! Lol.

 

had to get the gloves out today, hoping it gets cold enough soon that I need to get the balaclava out!

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