Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
1 minute ago, Dacyfo said:

Hi All, quite new to this and trying to learn but there's something I don't understand. The models are predicting a SSW for just after Xmas. So why the sudden if it's being predicted 2weeks ahead.

It's referring to the speed at which it happens. It's "Sudden" not "Surprise!" 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

@Daniel Smith   Have you hacked into Exeter’s computers ..... glosea charts are tough to come by .....

Was wondering myself ??!!!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Weather Preferences: coldie
  • Location: Reading
9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The "sudden" refers to the rapid warming of the Stratosphere, it can jump 40/50/60c in a matter of days

Ok , understand now. Many thanks.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, Dacyfo said:

Hi All, quite new to this and trying to learn but there's something I don't understand. The models are predicting a SSW for just after Xmas. So why the sudden if it's being predicted 2weeks ahead.

Had me confused, for a while too, Dacyfo!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Haven`t flicked through today`s thread and maybe already mentioned but the Arpege has a modified take on Saturday`s rain/snaw.

 

arpegeeur-2-54.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Haven`t flicked through today`s thread and maybe already mentioned but the Arpege has a modified take on Saturday`s rain/snaw.

 

arpegeeur-2-54.png

That bloody M4

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Haven`t flicked through today`s thread and maybe already mentioned but the Arpege has a modified take on Saturday`s rain/snaw.

 

arpegeeur-2-54.png

Snapshot from the higher resolution charts.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=42&map=330

A5A2102F-D480-4325-A24A-C39E7F2D7516.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Snapshot from the higher resolution charts.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=42&map=330

A5A2102F-D480-4325-A24A-C39E7F2D7516.jpeg

It keep the theme and you do have to wonder about the channel having an effect in that bizarre zone between South UK and France.

Cheers mate.

 

EDIT: The Hirlam doesn`t have the sector.

hirlamuk-1-48-0.png

Edited by Stuie W
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Just now, Stuie W said:

It keep the theme and you do have to wonder about the channel having an effect in that bizarre zone between South UK and France.

Cheers mate.

It’ll be air at and near the surface moving over the channel and being ‘modified’. An example of our island climate vs continental climate. May be some urban heat island effect as well, at least around London. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

It’ll be air at and near the surface moving over the channel and being ‘modified’. An example of our island climate vs continental climate. May be some urban heat island effect as well, at least around London. 

Probably right, I did edit my post to show the Hirlam not having the sector. What is noticeable is that it appears even further delayed coming in so room for upgrading further.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
8 hours ago, Snowman. said:

No nothing to do with your mild prediction it's your attitude towards forecasting itself. There are plenty of people in here who have spent years learning and researching the drivers of the world to try and understand how are weather funtions where they then form a forecast. Then you come in say anything past day 6 isn't worth looking into because no one gets it right.

Do you understand how rude that it is? You basically discredit those who work hard and base their forecast on actual science rather than a 'gut' feeling?

At the end of the day it is just a forecast, a prediction, a estimate it's not solid facts that in 3 weeks time it looks like there might be some blocking around but from our current point of view it's the best bet and that's all we're trying to do is get the best idea of the future.

As per the bold text highlighted above, effectively, all forum enthusiasts are doing are looking at algorithms produced by a selection of weather forecasting centres/organisations and then putting their best foot forward in terms of what they believe an outcome to be. Unfortunately, due to internal bias, it is commonly human nature to see something that perhaps isn't there and put an altogether exaggerated slant on their preferred result. However, it is still just a guess at the end of the day. Remember; when the fun stops - stop.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

@Daniel Smith   Have you hacked into Exeter’s computers ..... glosea charts are tough to come by .....

He's taken it off twitter and not given the source

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
3 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

As per the bold text highlighted above, effectively, all forum enthusiasts are doing are looking at algorithms produced by a selection of weather forecasting centres/organisations and then putting their best foot forward in terms of what they believe an outcome to be. Unfortunately, due to internal bias, it is commonly human nature to see something that perhaps isn't there and put an altogether exaggerated slant on their preferred result. However, it is still just a guess at the end of the day. Remember; when the fun stops - stop.  

Amazing how people get so wound up because someone’s opinion is different to their own.Poster was correct too,after 6 days is basically guess work,but an educated guess for people that have put a lot of research trying to understand how the weather works.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Yeah, there's a reason I didn't publicly out an account Tweeting GLOSEA charts.. 

Well I don`t like the graphics, bin that run...

Chart 1, is this one of those periods where our weather mirrors the US?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...