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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes that wave that develops would be potentially very good for Scotland & the north as it cuts off the flow from the south-

Updated snow chart

 

A9BADD5B-448E-4129-9896-8874FB9231B5.thumb.png.f3fdaad784d1908ad23398e74e946fb8.png

 

Yup just checked and that snowline has backed west quite a bit!!hardlyy any on the 12z!!

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes that wave that develops would be potentially very good for Scotland & the north as it cuts off the flow from the south-

Updated snow chart

 

A9BADD5B-448E-4129-9896-8874FB9231B5.thumb.png.f3fdaad784d1908ad23398e74e946fb8.png

 

I will take that chart straight to the bank..

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Plus more in the Midlands & South East...

Hi Steve. What is the resolution of the icon at a few days range. Is it considered high? I know it did well during our last cold spell back in March. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

I hope the ICON is right, yes we will get the Atlantic pushing through but an early snowfall will make things feel very festive. Talking of christmas, the swingometers this morning showed a few more cold runs for christmas day. 12z's wern't as good. Wouldn't it be amazing if we got a proper white christmas this year? I'll update this daily but long range doesn't look exciting yet. If BB62-63's post is anything to go by that may change. Cold Eastern US and Western Europe is indicative of a strong Greenland/Iceland high.

image.thumb.png.8bb4af9f8f5d3c6844f26fbdee068f69.png

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Depth max > 15-20cm at say +150M...

West of the M6 in Lancashire is one of the worst places in the country for snow. 

Won’t see anything Sat but hope others do. 

18z rolling out. Will there be any further signs of Atlantic heights in and around Xmas? Hope so.

 

Edited by Spah1
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

loved the 90's, remember this snow to rain event, quite a lot of lying snow, until around midday, think it was 11 degrees by evening

archives-1994-2-3-12-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

then of course the snowfest later in Feb '94, just hope we see something similar now, Saturdays snow a taster of the main course later

 

archives-1994-2-22-12-0.pngarchives-1994-2-23-12-0.pngarchives-1994-2-24-12-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As highlighted that wave makes it an all snow event lincs Northwards ( more so at a reasonable height )

5062CA0E-2AED-4EEF-9A2B-C5A3C5D0715B.thumb.png.0eefe75e6ad1247598b407bffa267a65.png

So glad I am not the only person on here chasing this event, Steve...

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Very interesting bbc weather for the week ahead just now, showed clearly the Atlantic coming in, but he finished off his forecast with " unsettled in the run up to xmas, but keep an eye on the forecast" i think he really wanted to say something more like " go buy bread and milk as much as you can coz we are about to enter a massive nation wide deep freeze as we head toward 2019"

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The Scandi Russian block, it aids the strat, I'm told.  GFS 18z at T138

image.thumb.jpg.f966ac3a0daa2090f7268c0c8415cf6b.jpg

That is what need to look out for now.  Nail the first part of the strat vortex destruction, there will need to be another development over what's currently modelled to finish the jaffa cakesing (edit wasn't what I posted, but I leave it there anyway, it actually makes the point better!) thing off, but that won't be resolved for a couple of weeks, in my opinion?

Roll on the Jaffa caking of the vortex....that should slow it down at least.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
31 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

loved the 90's, remember this snow to rain event, quite a lot of lying snow, until around midday, think it was 11 degrees by evening

archives-1994-2-3-12-0.png

It was a week and few days later that properly delivered though with a front coming up from the SW against an entrenched Scandi block.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

EPS not as certain as the ICON re: a more widespread event, fairly muted snow signal from the latest ECM away from Northern locals.

EPS.thumb.png.2b3af17c5adc225996b631016a529a18.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

EPS not as certain as the ICON re: a more widespread event, fairly muted snow signal from the latest ECM away from Northern locals.

EPS.thumb.png.2b3af17c5adc225996b631016a529a18.png

 

Knew that was coming, Daniel re my post earlier regarding less colour on that. Tomorrow is another day which you would think would be decisive.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

With the divergence steadfast...

Was'nt any transient affair/or otherwise 'a nowcast' situ??!..

In such climatology as atm...it most certainly was/is.....

And remains as we edge a little forwards!!!

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Knew that was coming, Daniel re my post earlier regarding less colour on that. Tomorrow is another day which you would think would be decisive.

One positive is that the very fine margins could mean the suite is wrong.. you'd expect higher res models (ICON) to have a better handle on things in the shorter range, though given the ICONs inconsistency I'm not sure I'd put too much weight on that calling this right, either.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
26 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Very interesting bbc weather for the week ahead just now, showed clearly the Atlantic coming in, but he finished off his forecast with " unsettled in the run up to xmas, but keep an eye on the forecast" i think he really wanted to say something more like " go buy bread and milk as much as you can coz we are about to enter a massive nation wide deep freeze as we head toward 2019"

Gutted I missed it... don't suppose anyone has a link for that forcast? 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs & Ecm good agreement Day 7 but are they right with dartboard low..

gfsnh-0-162.png

ECH1-168 (2).gif

The dartboard LPS- is quickly becoming my fav-scope on mid-term-modeling...its right at the atlantics achilies heel....(base point greenland )and as again with now well talked about upper dynamics...its another sign post blow 4 the atlantic....as well as the layered vortex..

Everything is begining to rock...an- ROLL !!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Gutted I missed it... don't suppose anyone has a link for that forcast? 

You'll find it on the BBC weather website, don't expect anything Saturday snow wise though, the graphics looked crap earlier when i went on the site, yesterday the heavy snow showers symbol was showing every hour from sat 6 until midday for my area, now its sleet for one hour then heavy rain all day.

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