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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Im glad you commented on UKMO Nick, my first reaction was positive, not to say its correct of course!

Bit of relief for you Northwestsnow from the horrible GFS latest ops. The Gem Globel Models brings some festive snow  cover for your part of the world and zero temps at 240t !!

.

snowdepth_20181211_12_240.jpg

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Goodness me GEM is rather nice!!

I would be happy of EC followed that !

Anything but GFS ..

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Just now, carinthian said:

Bit of relief for you Northwestsnow from the horrible GFS latest ops. The Gem Globel Models brings some festive snow  cover for your part of the world and zero temps at 240t !!

.

snowdepth_20181211_12_240.jpg

You must have a 6th sense C, i just posted about GEM the same time as you! 🙂

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I'm actually not sure what some members are expecting ATM on the mo.imo I can't see anything wintry in the next 10 +.we don't live in continental Europe were surrounded by water !!! Anyway enjoy your hunt for cold ete 

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51 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Since when has the gfs operational run been accurate into Fl never.Why do people hang off one operational run,especially the gfs.Still it’s at the end of the year when the fun and games start,even the METO are mentioning snow now at the end of the year.,just have a little patience.

Nice Meto update never seen it till you mentioned it been away all day and of course gfs will change as it has been doing daily was just a dreadful zonal run that's all.👍

Lets see what EC can throw out hopefully something more like ukmo..

Edited by booferking

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Ec looks consistent (which I guess is something to hang your hat on!) 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec looks consistent (which I guess is something to hang your hat on!) 

You say that blue but regarding this weekend and their infamous snow chart, that is in for a big change, will be a lot less colour on that map

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The difference in the handling of Atlantic low at 144 between the ECM and the GEM is crazy. Looks like Steve Murr has been at their (GEM) algorithm. 😂

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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Well here is the EC`s uppers chart for a weeks time. It could be better...

 

ECH0-168.png

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9 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

You say that blue but regarding this weekend and their infamous snow chart, that is in for a big change, will be a lot less colour on that map

The micro changes for T48/T96 aren't what the model is really about stuie. its supposed to excel in the T96/T168 period.  the subtle differences, run to run, with trough placement and angle of attack etc is bound to offer variations on a theme. i think there were five clusters at T96 this morning …… that offers plenty of options which wouldn't generally be of any relevance to us - ie. its going to rain at some point on Saturday.  now we are micro analysing it to see when/where/how etc etc

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Disgusting ECM, low after low spawning out of the remnants of vortex left across the Atlantic. Would love to have had some dry weather if we aren’t going to get snow, im refraining from throwing my toys out the pram about that though as every year Christmas seems to be dross weather.

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9 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well here is the EC`s uppers chart for a weeks time. It could be better...

 

ECH0-168.png

They are ok for a transitional period tho that will take us to Xmas week and beyond. then hopefully things will get progressively colder towards New Years.

Edited by Tony Beets
Dyslexic spelling

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Ecm downgrades weekends snow to nothing just as i thought earlier!!gota hope arpege is on the money!!you can tell as early as 72 hours the high is not as further west!!

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13 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well here is the EC`s uppers chart for a weeks time. It could be better...

 

ECH0-168.png

Don't like the look of that chart the PV looks like its starting to get its act together and set up shop. Also regarding Snow for the weekend only the Gem and Arpege has intrest in it for south of the Scottish border. Not a good day for us Coldies

Edited by snowangel32

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Just an observation but Scandi going nowhere and inrodes in to pole noticable 

Screenshot_20181211-185403_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181211-185250_Chrome.jpg

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3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Don't like the look of that chart the PV looks like its starting to get its act together and set up shop. Also regarding Snow for the weekend only the Gem and Arpege has intrest in it for south of the Scottish border. Not a good day for us Coldies

Would take a miracle for the PV to become more organised and stronger with the current and projected strat developments.

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Like a lot of the big stratosphere posters have said previously... Wave 1 is likely to push vortex into an unfavourable part of the world for us but it's what happens afterwards that remains interesting.. so let's accept what's ahead and hopefully eventually we will get our cold and snow ❄️ 👌

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The micro changes for T48/T96 aren't what the model is really about stuie. its supposed to excel in the T96/T168 period.  the subtle differences, run to run, with trough placement and angle of attack etc is bound to offer variations on a theme. i think there were five clusters at T96 this morning …… that offers plenty of options which wouldn't generally be of any relevance to us - ie. its going to rain at some point on Saturday.  now we are micro analysing it to see when/where/how etc etc

Very true mate but compared to last nights 12z, pretty stark to the point of it will only rain Saturday. On this run my wee chase is over but will see what tomorrow brings.

1st chart 12Z yesterday

 

ECH0-120.png

ECM0-96.gif

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LOOKING GREAT FOR EXTENDED COLD SPELL IN EUROPE AND EAST CONUS FROM XMAS ONWARDS

I posted this on a US forum teleconnections thread and @Raythan asked me to copy it on here. It does relate to both US and UK/Euro patterns.  I shall not edit it and it was rather rushed.

At last, the AAM, torque and GWO charts have all just updated to Dec 9th and they are almost entirely in line with Tams' @Tamara and Tom's @Isotherm predictions and very good news for those hunting the main cold spell starting around or just after Christmas in the eastern US and a few days later in western Europe and the UK.

11a.thumb.PNG.dd6edaf715d0313354956a66b79f6049.PNG

Total GLAAM having fallen back is on the rise again.

11d.thumb.PNG.9e5d4df84dbaa0c93595758b7f69ffa5.PNG

Following the huge fall in the relative GLAAM tendency anomaly it's bouncing back equally strongly exactly as they predicted.

11c.thumb.PNG.afcd14cad2d9233a11748402c924b47b.PNG

FT rose and has gone +ve albeit briefly.

11b.thumb.PNG.92ca6ec558034d25b2097e2e43398e2b.PNG

The rising FT (from its low point) has led Global MT up (with the usual time lag) and that's another huge spring back and leading NAMT and EAMT upwards.

11e.thumb.PNG.23984b2e2c76bb0eed6544d4c0f8d6b7.PNG

The GWO did not go -ve while it has moved from phase 8 and has pushed through the COD and is re-emerging in phase 5, exactly as Tams predicted. It's set to rise at increased amplitude through phases 5 and 6. 

I've run out of time (incredibly busy this week) to say any more but with the MJO also playing ball (entering a higher amp run through phases 5/6/7) and the signs of a significant strat warming (if not a major SSW) make me feel really bullish about a significant cold spell - probably in Europe/UK and the eastern CONUS.  I'll leave it up to the rest of you to scrutinise the finer detail.  I wonder how quickly the models will "fully" factor this in?  David  🙂 

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Would take a miracle for the PV to become more organised and stronger with the current and projected strat developments.

Yh i agree but at present the models arent showing it. Also isnt there a lag effect before the effects are felt.

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Day 10 ECM, not without interest with a possible ridge building our west and heights building to the NE also. I think we need to extends our hopes past the day 10 period, which of course many already have. Dangerous game though, seen many winters washed away with the zonal train but I think this winter is different, I don’t see the zonal train lasting too long the vortex is in tatters already.

11B743A4-D084-4A82-B74B-046DDBF496DE.png

Edited by Weathizard

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12 minutes ago, Tony Beets said:

They are ok for a transitional period tho that will take us to Xmas week and beyond. then hopefully things will get progressively colder towards New Years.

We will monitor, Tony and yes I have bolded the most important word imo. Plenty of theories about that period, all good from what I read but will stick with the bolded word for now.

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The updated fax chart for Friday shows the block to be stronger and the fronts struggling more when compared to this morning's chart for the same time. 

fax72s.gif

fax84s.gif

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