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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Was gona mention the same thing buddy!!over to gfs now!!

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Meant to post this last night  but some forecasters saying mild Christmas. At this range ,about any thing could turn up ,strange year weather wise so far ,snow in the forecast tomorrow , STORMY with i

I'm sorry for being off topic but I'm sure mods will forgive me for this one. Very sorry to hear you're missing your wife, this time of year can be especially hard and you can't just switch off that s

I love having the FV3 now.  There used to be that dead time between the end of the GFS and the start of the ECM where I had to talk to the wife.  Not any more ?

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ICON at 132 hrs is on the move imo with the atlantic forcing a ridge!! wedges of heigths splitting and forcing the low in atlantic

 

Edited by swfc
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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Respect Steve, but feel like the majority on here really aren’t interested in a bit of snow that either doesn’t lay or thaws within hours of falling. Perhaps I’m on my own here but I prefer no snow than snow not laying/thawing rapidly. I could be wrong though ? 

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17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

The approach of the front is just not conducive to snow, mostly mixed out by the time the PPn gets there, unless of course your lucky enougth to pick up a shower from the east before hand.

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7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Respect Steve, but feel like the majority on here really aren’t interested in a bit of snow that either doesn’t lay or thaws within hours of falling. Perhaps I’m on my own here but I prefer no snow than snow not laying/thawing rapidly. I could be wrong though ? 

Rather it doesn't snow than an hour of it lol

Edited by lassie23
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15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Hi Steve Murr ???

Starting to feel very quiet in here and it’s the only thing getting me through my long days at work lol.

do you or anyone else fancy having a guesstimating Stab at what will happen over Friday and Saturday?

my brain has been fried over the last few days with the yes it will no it won’t posts regarding this weekend and now I’m at a loss what to think?

thanks in advance,

Ryan

(long time lurker... love the show guys and gals ??)

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25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Keep posting about this weekend Steve! I'm certainly interested even if it is a brief affair and I'm sure many others in the North will be.

Can't see much in the way here at my elevation but with the nearby North York Moors and Yorkshire Dales, they may be some fun to be had with the new winter tyres on Saturday evening for a time.

iconeu_uk1-1-105-0.png?11-16

Edited by vizzy2004
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54 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Iirc there is even an expression in German for the Christmas thaw, for some reason between Christmas and new year the weather is even more often than usual Atlantic 

An-slush?

Remarkable how mild continental North America is overall at the end of the ICON 12z:

iconnh-0-180.png?11-12

 

As mentioned above, really want to see a renewed push of heights over Alaska on the latter parts of the GFS 12z to get that wave 2 activity going.

 

Edited by Yarmy
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37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Personally I'm very interested in the developments for this weekend. There is a fair chance that the colder air could last well into Sunday over Scotland and this could potentially bring a whole day of snow on Saturday to many. 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144-

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

that looks a mild chart to me, lets hope the high builds north and shuts the Atlantic down

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7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not sure if its just run by run differences  or infact if it will lead to anything   but the low is much more shallow than its previous run

81-7UK.gif84-7UK.gif  

Still sayin it but ecm will fall in line with gfs this evening!!no other model has as low 850s as ecm does for thursday and friday!!

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