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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
14 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

That looks blocked and surely even the UK cant mess that up.

wanna bet!

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Just now, Sweatyman said:

wanna bet!

I would take that bet lol. We will see snow between Xmas day and the 5th Jan. Rember this post mate.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The FV3 returns to a short sharp snow event for many on Saturday night:

gfs-16-114.png?6

(But I wonder if the main event of the weekend will really be this - storms)

UW120-21.GIF?11-06

Onto this morning's ECM clusters, probably very unsettled by 19th December

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121100_192.

But that Canadian ridge appearing again by the 21st, I still feel this could produce a colder type of WNWly / NWly for the UK a day or so after this:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121100_240.

And by the 23rd, that ridge is starting to make its way into the N Atlantic (flattened slightly), and certainly more orange than blue close to Greenland - note the trough anomalies are starting to push east away from the mid-Atlantic, too.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121100_300.

It's not screaming cold from any direction, but clusters 2, 3 and 4 leave you wondering if a temporary phase of colder air could get to the UK shores around Christmas time. My (very) early wager is on a white Christmas for northern hills and perhaps Scotland - the most obvious places for snow when NWly elements come into play.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The FV3 returns to a short sharp snow event for many on Saturday night:

gfs-16-114.png?6

(But I wonder if the main event of the weekend will really be this - storms)

UW120-21.GIF?11-06

Onto this morning's ECM clusters, probably very unsettled by 19th December

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121100_192.

But that Canadian ridge appearing again by the 21st, I still feel this could produce a colder type of WNWly / NWly for the UK a day or so after this:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121100_240.

And by the 23rd, that ridge is starting to make its way into the N Atlantic (flattened slightly), and certainly more orange than blue close to Greenland - note the trough anomalies are starting to push east away from the mid-Atlantic, too.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121100_300.

It's not screaming cold from any direction, but clusters 2, 3 and 4 leave you wondering if a temporary phase of colder air could get to the UK shores around Christmas time. My (very) early wager is on a white Christmas for northern hills and perhaps Scotland - the most obvious places for snow when NWly elements come into play.

 

Inline with my bet I put on a few days ago surprised by some of the odds tbh I thought Leeds at 5-1 is very good considering it's on high ground and away from warming influences of the sea better odds than Heathrow was!

Screenshot_20181209-094947_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

Because it's a 3 month ensemble blend chart it doesn't really tell the whole picture - You could have an entire month of intense blocking and then be stuck in no-mans land for 2 months and still get a chart like the one above.

Though it's certainly encouraging! GLOSEA is tied heavily into Stratospheric forecasts too I believe, it's the model MO focus heavily on when doing contingency based forecasts, so encouraging nonetheless!

I'd settle for a month of intense blocking thank you very much!

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
5 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Yesterday, @ArHu3kindly posted this, which shows temperature anomalies specifically following stratospheric displacements. I'd like to see similar regarding stratospheric splits as I expect this would yield different results. For Central Europe I see two colder, one average and 4 warmer but this is a rather small sample to be drawing solid conclusions from. 

figure-iv_12012018 (2).webp

There haven't been that many splits in the same period, I can remember early January 2013 and mid February 2018 but I think we all remember what followed in the months after those events 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
20 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

There haven't been that many splits in the same period, I can remember early January 2013 and mid February 2018 but I think we all remember what followed in the months after those events 

And who could forget 2010, when there wasn't even a SSW?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And who could forget 2010, when there wasn't even a SSW?

Looks like there was to me - in February.

archivesnh-2010-2-3-12-4.png?

There was - its in Amy H Butler's compendium of SSW's

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
58 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Inline with my bet I put on a few days ago surprised by some of the odds tbh I thought Leeds at 5-1 is very good considering it's on high ground and away from warming influences of the sea better odds than Heathrow was!

Screenshot_20181209-094947_Samsung Internet.jpg

I'm not a betting man, but you're right, Leeds Airport very good value.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Things looking up via strat thread it would seem.Anyway pretty similar fi on gfs and para late on with an attempt ie ridging ete .Would be hopeing to see an increase in some pretty good nhp profiles regarding the pv fading over the next week or so.heres hoping anyway.id sell my grandmothers wooden leg for a wintry xmas period !!

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

Interesting to see the UKMO seasonal model and the ECM mild biased seasonal model in the action! That should including Metro France previous update provide a big signal... All down to this SSW event materializing you would think..

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Is the Atlantic going to win this battle? Forecasters are pretty confident the block will have its block knocked off come the weekend and we will be back to Atlantic drivel.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Just now, lassie23 said:

Is the Atlantic going to win this battle? 

Yes.

Atlantic back in over the weekend then Atlantic domination until after Christmas. Hopefully see a change between Christmas and the end of the year.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes.

Atlantic back in over the weekend then Atlantic domination until after Christmas. Hopefully see a change between Christmas and the end of the year.

Usual Christmas crap then lol

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
4 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, you just need to load the 65N one and change to 60N in the URL, here's the chart:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_60N_10hpa_gefs.png

Yes, still good at 65N - but the 'official' criterion for SSW is at 60N.

Thanks Mike, pretty much what I thought, glad I wasn't Barking up the wrong tree.

 

Thanks for the link

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes.

Atlantic back in over the weekend then Atlantic domination until after Christmas. Hopefully see a change between Christmas and the end of the year.

Perhaps.....

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
19 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Usual Christmas crap then lol

Iirc there is even an expression in German for the Christmas thaw, for some reason between Christmas and new year the weather is even more often than usual Atlantic 

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Posted
  • Location: Gloucester
  • Weather Preferences: Snow that settles then freezes!
  • Location: Gloucester
3 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

6z remarkably similar to the EC46 actually. Heights raise in the Atlantic behind an area of low pressure pulling colder air in over the UK

6z.thumb.png.d8132ccc7ff64bdb88d0d276fb15bb6b.png

But the energy coming out of Canada is too strong and pushes the heigh Eastwards bringing a return to milder weather

Trans.thumb.png.da4db15a7049c0fc018bb685b26a6e12.png

EC46 shows transient highs exactly like this, maybe we'll get lucky and the cold portion of the high will coincide with Christmas day.

Yes but you must know by now that that is what the GFS does. Surely more fool you

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

charts looking poor for long term cold...re after Xmas to the new year..the big Alaskan high breaking through the Arctic has disappeared to be replaced by lots of low heights..could even be a green Xmas over here looking at those charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
5 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

Yes but you must know by now that that is what the GFS does. Surely more fool you

What? I was pointing out that the GFS was very, very similar to the EC46 model.. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
17 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

Yes but you must know by now that that is what the GFS does. Surely more fool you

Hes showing the profile and its similarity to ec46!!! Nothing foolish with that.Grow up sunshine!!!

Edited by swfc
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