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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
1 minute ago, More Snow said:

Correct me if im wrong but that chart shows Snaw from the North of Scotland right down the spine of the UK and into London and the South East. surely London is south of northern England?

It does just not as heavy nor defined as further north, probably just asking too much, I don't know but if we continue to see the improvements that we've seen today it will be interesting. Have to say there has been a clear trend in the right direction in regards to the ICON, and as many know I don't say that lightly.

Edited by AppleUK 123
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
4 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Correct me if im wrong but that chart shows Snaw from the North of Scotland right down the spine of the UK and into London and the South East. surely London is south of northern England?

Just look how diffrent that is from the previous run. Still no snow for me will need more corrections West but happy some of us will see some snow the weekend. And More Snaw time to start dusting of those sledges looks odds on for quite a bit of Snow in Scotland.

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Just before the pub run hots things up in here ( or not ) i would like to thank the mods in here tonight for showing tolerance toward the mass of off topic stuff in here, it is very important that we all show understanding toward each other in here and maybe just maybe it would help to cut out some of the over reactions by some if we all sat back and took a moment to try to understand others posts and the reason they may have made that post before reacting, some of us see the world from a different angle not an incorrect angle just a different one. try and remember that guys and girls. peace love and understanding. (oh and snaw lots of big fluffy flakes of the stuff)

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
11 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

This weekend is likely to be a win some and you loose some. 

Anyone N and E of that band stands a chance with increased chance the further NE you travel.

Tbh come the day I actually think that front would be much further west, in fact I wouldn’t be surprised if it only made it as far as west wales and start to push back west

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

High pressure further west by 30-40 miles on the latest GFS. Lets see how this pans out. 
gfs-0-66.png?18

 

EDIT: Well at least it was at +66h

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The atlantic feeling the pinch run2 run..

Pockets of hp intrrcepting the drive...as westward progression take advantage...and the bocking pressure..ups the anti!!!

 

The iberian feature acting as prop up..also...

Interesting yet small exactions...

gfs-0-78.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

Well what a roller coaster ride it's been for the last few days will it won't it and I don't think even now the models have a handle on things yet come end of this week I think it will be lamppost watching for most of us.  Yes I know the atlantic will break thrue but I don't think the block will just give up the fight yet.  For those of you who is interested the MJO forecast has been update if you mjoupdate. 10TH DECEMBER 2018.pdfguys want to take a look.

Edited by syed2878
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

What I would like most from the pub run?  Honestly - a chart on Meteociel that looks like an elephant.  

But we are where we are, T84, with 12z at same time for comparison

image.thumb.jpg.afeefda88f61c5ceac74d072315f90fa.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3584748ba318a2081f939506138ded1d.jpg

Note the more elongated low on the latest run - forgive my memory, wasn't this a bowling ball a few days ago?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What I would like most from the pub run?  Honestly - a chart on Meteociel that looks like an elephant.  

But we are where we are, T84, with 12z at same time for comparison

image.thumb.jpg.afeefda88f61c5ceac74d072315f90fa.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3584748ba318a2081f939506138ded1d.jpg

Note the more elongated low on the latest run - forgive my memory, wasn't this a bowling ball a few days ago?

Not even a few days ago mike...even more recently..

The atlantic was/is as per overplayed.

And as again...like the vortex...its running out of puff !!.

And more exactions of this likely to play out over the nxt 48hrs.

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 nowhere near as good as Thursdays run.

Thursdays run wasn’t ecactly amazing as it was..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

@bluearmy

Dont know if you have the hemispheric view of the E46, the scadi ridge is signalled week 4- is the Alaskan?

 

Really not sure i like this at all tbh, i don't like week 3 and don't like the general timeframe of events trying to tie in with any SSW.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The drop off at-system showing major dissengagment from the main upper lobe..

This as well as other signs..likely small but telling signs of vortex annoyance..

As waving starts the wobble.

That being..also that that feature will likely weaken as we progress..and mods should start picking up on notable ridging..into/at greenland.....

gfsnh-0-120.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@bluearmy

Dont know if you have the hemispheric view of the E46, the scadi ridge is signalled week 4- is the Alaskan?

Too early - the fun and games were weeks 5 and 6 ..... no sight of that yet 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Too early - the fun and games were weeks 5 and 6 ..... no sight of that yet 

Yes, with this SSW situation though, i'm hoping to see the pre-cursor patterns to a split SSW show up before that timescale, not because i am in any rush but just to make sure we don't 'waste an SSW'

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Thursdays run wasn’t ecactly amazing as it was..

It was deep into it - it was a stonker.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 18z is dyer for the weekend.

Most runs have been dire for the weekend!  I share your concerns in your earlier post, and indeed your post several days ago about the SSW.  A displacement SSW which is now almost nailed on isn't enough to deliver the deep cold to the UK people are expecting of it, it needs to be followed up with a split or annihilation and that's not visible on the modelling yet - maybe only because it doesn't go that far out, that is the signal I will be looking for on subsequent runs. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Most runs have been dire for the weekend!  I share your concerns in your earlier post, and indeed your post several days ago about the SSW.  A displacement SSW which is now almost nailed on isn't enough to deliver the deep cold to the UK people are expecting of it, it needs to be followed up with a split or annihilation and that's not visible on the modelling yet - only because it doesn't go that far out, that is the signal I will be looking for on subsequent runs. 

Look for the pattern bottom left to be repeated.

image

The red indicates the wave 2.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

gfsnh-0-198.png?18

There's that ridge up to Greenland that keeps popping up in recent runs. 

Will it come to anything???

Edited by Spah1
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look for the pattern bottom left to be repeated.

image

The red indicates the wave 2.

Let's hope so.  If that does happen the chances of the UK going into the freezer would be very high, I would imagine, >85%.      If.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Just my opinion but i expect a climb down from ecm tomorrow!!even latest arpege is slightly further east at 60 hours!!which will mean ecm shall be wrong at a very early timeframe!!very rare!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Let's hope so.  If that does happen the chances of the UK going into the freezer would be very high, I would imagine, >85%.      If.

Well hopefully that would be the trigger for it anyway.

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