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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I believe the ECM shows any wintry precipitation (even sleet) as settling. Normally if you halve the snow depths on the ECM, you'll get a more realistic picture, but in this case I think even that would be optimistic (It has circa 5 inches for me!).

Well surely whoever pulled this thing together has at the very least sat in a science lesson at school? lol 

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4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

OK - A little drifting off is fine, but it's straying way off-topic now.

Let's resume back to normal service now. 

Thank you! ?

Oops my bad sorry , I did post that same time as you posted ?

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Loving how this colder trend is continuing on the Ecm 12z..friday looks icy cold!!..let's hope we can squeeze even more cold goodness out of this with further favourable tweaks!?:santa-emoji:❄️:cold:

72_thickuk.png

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Always the weather optimist come rain, sleet, heat, sun and snow. No bias in any of your posts. Makes me smile. Good on you frosty??. I can’t read the charts, so I’m glued on here listening to all the updates. Obviously, not just from you but a few good posters I’ve been following over the years.

good to have you back on here posting

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21 minutes ago, More Snow said:

As a kid growing up i would wake up every morning from 1st December to the 28th Feb (29th every 4 years) and run to my bedroom window pull the curtains back and expect Snaw, was let down so many times and i just couldnt understand why it was winter but not Snawing.

Think you should change your name to more SNAW ?

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30 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Carlisle's looking like a favourable spot. 

Think that was lost on many in here...the good old days ?

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Anyone know whether it's possible to view strat (10 hpa temperature) charts from models other than the GFS? I've been watching the GFS strat charts for the past week or so due to the expected warming but I've seen people say the GFS doesn't normally have a good handle on this?

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18 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Some poor sod is going to come online at some stage and see a massive number of replies and think winter wonderland charts are being rolled out, when in all reality its us Aspies clogging up the thread with our obsessions ?????????

Make that a 4th person- I'm borderline aspergers too! Maybe it's part of our obsession with the weather/snow

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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Think that was lost on many in here...the good old days ?

Will it snow in Carlisle?

EC det an outlier in terms of upper 850s at the weekend (North Yorkshire)

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=290&y=9&run=12&

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Anyone know whether it's possible to view strat (10 hpa temperature) charts from models other than the GFS? I've been watching the GFS strat charts for the past week or so due to the expected warming but I've seen people say the GFS doesn't normally have a good handle on this?

Yes, the ECM, but it only goes out to 240 hours, you can view all levels of the atmosphere, the information is delayed by a day though, the 12z run is updated the next day at 5am, just one update per day.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

 

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Anyone know whether it's possible to view strat (10 hpa temperature) charts from models other than the GFS? I've been watching the GFS strat charts for the past week or so due to the expected warming but I've seen people say the GFS doesn't normally have a good handle on this?

Yes, you can view a whole range of strat diagnostic charts from the ECM here:

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html 

But it only goes out to T240, and what we are discussing here is still beyond that timescale.  

GFS has actually been good at picking up all the main SSWs that I can remember, I expect the FV3 to be better due to the higher resolution out to day 16. 

Hope that helps.

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So  intriguing to watch the ec op jump from one cluster to another from the previous suite at quite short notice 

 making any predictions seems fraught with danger beyond day 4/5 - note the changes on the Atlantic troughing quite early in the new ec run.  that channel runner at day six is the new option into the mix and if there isn’t any phasing between the low heights to the east and west then more routes forward open up ..... late on the run begins to look very wedgy and whilst it’s bound not to verify, I think a general weakening of the Atlantic looks much more feasible than looked likely only a day ago! 

less than an hour to see if that week 5/6 pattern repeats on the 46

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Lots to eyeball but I`m interested in ECM migrating the SH SEwards over to Caspian sea/Kazakstan (although it forms a weak ridge over Finland midweek?) or the GFS holding its lat yet moving Ewards to C Russia?

Either way an inevitable mobile return next week is 60/40?

WRussian/C&E European cooling is always a bonus this time a year?

hello again everyone btw ?

Edited by mezzacyclone
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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

brilliant mate ?

PS my son has mental health problems , there are many people all over the world with problems,issues and illnesses.

On here, we are snow lovers, so we are one big family, young , old, girl and boy..

My son is Autistic plus other issues and my wife has severe mental health issues as well, so much more recognised now days than when i was young, i only found out about my self in my early 20's although my parents were told when i was very young but chose to not say anything to anybody. im very glad that there is a lot of help and support in the world now days. and to keep things on topic, im very happy with the model output today and i for one would welcome Snaw this weekend transient or otherwise.

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Icon out to 120 on the 18z. Atlantic stalling, lows becoming shallower, heights building to the north, azores high trying to ridge towards scandi as the low stalls out west. 

Can we be sure the Atlantic is going to come in at all? What a turn of events if we went from cold and snow to mild and wet to very wet and windy to sliders to the block flexing to no Atlantic at all? 

Interesting none the less, and probably why every year I find myself back for the chase. 

 

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Been browsing through the 12z GEFS now, and there is not one run that shows a low pressure undercutting the Scandy HP, not one. That really surprised me, would have thought that there would have been one, as it looks primes to do it. Just to barrel through the link up between the Azores HP and the Scandy HP. I find that really bizarre. I did fine 1 run that started driving Lows south into the med, but that seemed very erroneous.

 

I know it's not very scientific, but this HP does look very "under-cutty" despite it not happening. It's robust enough too. Bloody Azores poking it's nose into something that's not it's business! Anyway, eyes down for the pub run. Hopefully it will pick up a new signal and surprise us all!

 

 

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ICON 18Z is better, but still not good enough for anyone south of northern England.

iconeu_uk1-42-120-0.png

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 120.... beginning to morph over to more snow

F9D15CD8-8726-4317-8B4D-B106367D9D56.thumb.png.32c916acc8c2b1c3c7f1588b7e4569f3.png

Good Evening Steve, how far south do you think we will see the snow, if we do see any snow at all from this event? I do trust you as your instincts have been very good lately but still remain cautious. For eg, the Met Office forecast for this day is for temps to increase with the precipitation.

Edited by AppleUK 123

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1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

ICON 18Z is better, but still not good enough for anyone south of northern England.

iconeu_uk1-42-120-0.png

This weekend is likely to be a win some and you loose some. 

Anyone N and E of that band stands a chance with increased chance the further NE you travel.

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2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

ICON 18Z is better, but still not good enough for anyone south of northern England.

iconeu_uk1-42-120-0.png

Correct me if im wrong but that chart shows Snaw from the North of Scotland right down the spine of the UK and into London and the South East. surely London is south of northern England?

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9 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

This weekend is likely to be a win some and you loose some. 

Anyone N and E of that band stands a chance with increased chance the further NE you travel.

1 thing i can bank on...

These precip-charts will look a lot different..come friday...and with given fluctuating synoptics...

Only 'nowcasting' will surfice!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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