Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Some wintry precipitation for Northern England, northwards would it be unrealistic to hope that the snow line moves southwards?

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018121012_120_18_155.png

Edited by AppleUK 123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Anything for east coast Ireland showing?

Zero rain and fog as far as i could see the far North shows some snow Saturday but highly unlikely i would say it being right as dew points looked to high..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM snow accumulation charts up to midday Sunday. This model normally overdoes these snow totals but it gives you idea of how its seeing the progression of frontal systems into the cold air.

ecm snow.png

Edited by MattStoke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think your being lead by the repetative worry of the atlantic moving in- Saturday looks quite big for the UK...

Looking forward to @Tim Bland ECM snow chart for sat / sun...

 

DD9A8403-6A0D-4717-A5AC-5024934071BE.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Zero rain and fog as far as i could see the far North shows some snow Saturday but highly unlikely i would say it being right as dew points looked to high..

Agreed. No snow; more rain. Dew points look no lower than 4c at best. Any "battle" is the other side of the Irish sea. 

Edited by jcw
Typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

 

DD9A8403-6A0D-4717-A5AC-5024934071BE.jpeg

Nice ( not concerned about IMBY as expecting a bit more continental flow ) but for December thats a big deal for the UK !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

the model run predicts the temps to reach the heady heights of zero c @ T300.  that's not T384. i've seen quite a few comments about the warmings never making it below the end of the runs - these posts are plainly bollux 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DPs rising from south west as you go through Saturday. Some precip ahead of main front as discussed above which would be snow.

Once main band arrives. Snow looks along a line of Derby/Nottingham north. However further east you go the further south the line comes. Eg) Peterborough when band first arrives there. 

Sunday - snow for much of Central UK (based on model data anyway) 

Sunday snow attached. 

 

39C4D2CB-F2C6-45CB-818A-B80454FC1D59.jpeg

Edited by bradythemole

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, jcw said:

Agreed. No snow; more rain. Dew points some look no lower than 4c at best. Any "battle" is the other side of the Irish sea. 

Nope, NI does OK, far enough north i guess..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Why do people keep posting these charts when time and again they've proved to be about as useful as a catflap on a submarine?

Why do people not bother to read the rest of my edited post? People were talking about what the ECM is showing so I posted it, so sue me.

Edited by MattStoke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Why do people not bother to read the rest of my edited post?

You've just answered your own question. Your post wasn't shown as 'edited' when I quoted it. As you can clearly see from the bit that's quoted  🙄

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The actual ECM snowfall chart is somewhat more muted vs the one posted above

Muted.thumb.png.057e77a924a3827f1777277661bb5da4.png

This is based on a 10:1 ratio so expect them to be more muted still in reality, 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, aitchbomb said:

Pity the trolls can’t be treated with such precision more frequently, it’s the search for cold and their expressed misery is more depressing than a green Christmas 

Yep they are out in force now even though every model shows a diffrent scenario and the cold uppers differ from run to run. Last few posts have shown how diffrently people on here see things let alone the models. The Atlantic will win its just if we can squeeze a snow event out of it before it does. Must be a nightmare for a newbie trying to work out wat is going on today with such conflicting posts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Loving how this colder trend is continuing on the Ecm 12z..friday looks icy cold!!..let's hope we can squeeze even more cold goodness out of this with further favourable tweaks!😉:santa-emoji:❄️:cold:

72_thickuk.png

96_thickuk.png

96_thick.png

96_mslp850uk.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You've just answered your own question. Your post wasn't shown as 'edited' when I quoted it. As you can clearly see from the bit that's quoted  🙄

Please accept my most sincere apology for posting a chart in the model output thread that related to what people were talking about. Clearing the sniping is warranted, even though there's no problem with someone else also posting it and other people discussing it. 

Don't know why I bother with this thread sometimes.

Edited by MattStoke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The actual ECM snowfall chart is somewhat more muted vs the one posted above

Muted.thumb.png.057e77a924a3827f1777277661bb5da4.png

This is based on a 10:1 ratio so expect them to be more muted still in reality, 

Still bank it and run away to the hills with kids sledge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Please accept my most sincere apology for posting a chart in the model output thread that related to what people were talking about. Clearing the sniping is warranted, even though there's no problem with someone else also posting it. 

Don't know why I bother with this thread sometimes.

I just happened to quote you but the gist of my post wasn't solely aimed at you. I've no idea why you took it the way you did. Then you blame me for not seeing an edit you made whilst I was replying to the pre-edited quote.

Those snow charts are terrible, that was the upshot of the point I was trying to raise.

Edited by CreweCold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People keep posting about "battleground" situs towards end of week but classic ones usually involve a few days of bitter temps before Atlantic fronts encroach. Under those situs ground temps, as well as air temps, are low. 

End of this week aint classic "battleground".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nope, NI does OK, far enough north i guess..

As charts stand, based on GFS dew points and my own read of them, I'd be very surprised to see snow at low level along East coast and across NI.

Definitely making for interesting forecasts and model watching...

Still much to learn from this situation and I'll be watching how it pans out for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

ECM has some light snow for Wales, parts of West Midlands, NW England and South west England late Friday night/early Saturday.

This is ahead of the main band of precip later on Saturday. DP’s still below Zero for all and Snow level right down to Sea Level. 

 

BB063F22-933D-4B7E-A6FD-56F2EAED838A.jpeg

EF26ED17-9C24-4AC0-8972-4E8EAAB98621.jpeg

Sounds promising for us here on the coast of South Wales, I wasn't sure if the sea temps would be low enough but given the right setup we can sometimes get some really good/heavy snowfalls from the west with even some thundersnow 👍🏻

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That ecm run would give quite a dumping to the northern spine of the UK - whether the ecm snow charts show it or not. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

 

End of this week aint classic "battleground".

It's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick!!..a few days ago there was no sign of the cold thurs / fri and possibly saturday that the Ecm is now showing.😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Sounds promising for us here on the coast of South Wales, I wasn't sure if the sea temps would be low enough but given the right setup we can sometimes get some really good/heavy snowfalls from the west with even some thundersnow 👍🏻

Yes. However this just some transient light snow here before the milder air and DP’s unfortunately sweep north eastwards across Wales Saturday morning. 

Nevertheless much better than the other models this evening. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...