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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

UW120-21.GIF?10-16UW144-21.GIF?10-16

and just like that the easterlies influence is gone, hello to the atlantic.

Can someone else have a go?

Block holding on longer on tonight's GFS

UKMO had a similar run a couple of days ago if I remember rightly.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
25 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

Did a quick research on google

Image result for winters with strong aleutian lows

1957-58 is interesting

NOAA_2_1958012112_1.png

NOAA_2_1958021706_1.png

CETs

December 1957: 4.5

January 1958: 3.4

February: 4.7

March: 3.7

 

 

Good stuff, It proves that CET doesn’t tell the whole story

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

No snow on UKMO or GFS. Atlantic being held back a bit or slightly lower uppers only help if the low at the end of the week / weekend slides and some cold air remains for a while. What we have seen today is models backing away from that so it’s cold and dry followed by rain unfortunately. Still time for things to change again though

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

Although the ARPEGE 12Z does indicate something wintry, it is at 0.5 resolution, not as high as the Arpege 0.1 12Z which is still running.

arpegeeur-2-114.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The block remaining stedfast...as in these set ups...as normally usual..both the block being underestimated..and atlantic infer-overly so.

Fully expect a further bounce on both moving forwards...

=less at-progres and clearer modeling on block in situ..and remain..

What the overall answer will be remains of wait......

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Snow!!
  • Location: Isle of Wight

-8 Cold air over Scandinavia is not budging too easily on today's 12z GFS 120-132 charts!

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=1&carte=1

 

Edited by wightwootton
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

No snow on UKMO or GFS. Atlantic being held back a bit or slightly lower uppers only help if the low at the end of the week / weekend slides and some cold air remains for a while. What we have seen today is models backing away from that so it’s cold and dry followed by rain unfortunately. Still time for things to change again though

Yep these uppers will not support snow

UW120-7.GIF?10-17

it's almost like we have gone back to the pre weekedn wobble with the breakdown quick and decisive, unlike our politicians. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Spot the rather crucial difference in the incoming Atlantic. 

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-0-210.png

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
30 minutes ago, wightwootton said:

-8 Cold air over Scandinavia is not budging too easily on today's 12z GFS 120-132 charts!

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=1&carte=1

 

Is that correct? over here in the Netherlands I can suddenly already feel that cold dry air coming in just now

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-228.png?12

Thats a complicated picture.

It's a very wet one, that's for sure.

If we can get height rises to the North though and a more Southern jet, it opens plenty of opportunities.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-228.png?12

Thats a complicated picture.

From what I understand, tropospheric forcing on the PV (through HLBs, however small) maybe what is needed to push the displacement caused by the impending SSW into a split. So, however complicated it looks, the picture above is a good indication that the atmospheric conditions are conspiring to heighten the risk of a destroyed vortex going into January. 

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

Have been sitting back with this weeks cold spell just because I feel its more a fleeting affair than a full on snow/frontal snow maker.

The Models continue to paint a very uncertain outlook towards the Weekend. The 12z GFS brings the Atlantic through by Saturday morning across all parts, other models return to this idea today from earlier runs.

While I believe this is too progressive, it is basically delaying the inevitable. The Atlantic is likely to return next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Yep as expected ,the next Easterly showing , will definitely make it ,but probably have to wait till the end of the year,for the fun and games to start!⛷️

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Ed Stone said:

I've seen better 12Zs than that, I'm sure!

I've seen worse..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've seen better 12Zs than that, I'm sure!

I actually think its a run loaded with potential

but its very different profile to our west at 144 to ukmo so not much confidence in either..

not looked at the strat on GFS , hoping the signal for warming maintained..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Saturdays Snow depicted by the GEM

if we want more widespread snow we will need more SE feed

A1ACFAAD-DA44-466D-96EE-3CEA5D0FE46B.thumb.png.6140a67a4767fde47c41f8be08ba4918.png9FDFDAC1-DBFE-4D43-B424-8FB695F9BD5B.thumb.png.4e2994035b5dedf6824fced68b9a1d7c.png

looking through the 12z GEFS these 2 members seem to have the snow slightly further south than the rest (still time for the boundary between rain/ snow to move north or south in the coming runs)

gens-14-2-102.thumb.png.6cd4b16318e9826872ce34ddb055efbe.png gens-14-2-108.thumb.png.bc673e4097bca562bd10d05d9f018e06.pnggens-14-1-102.thumb.png.28b5f6b33aa30e05a1c85cef5a406edf.pnggens-14-1-108.thumb.png.23ee3919fd2fd6f240466666eb0e8446.png

gens-16-2-120.thumb.png.03af49e668d9d90a812ab1dbb8e7908e.pnggens-16-1-120.thumb.png.5a6049df29770326c402559c38852569.png 

   

 

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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