The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Mokidugway]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Nasty feature at 144h 

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Nasty feature at 144h 

The PV has turned into an alien.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Big solar wind hit starting today, I think we’ll see some further adjustments ahead.  Let’s see what Monday/Tues bring us. This is a massive coronal hole bringing monthly hit after hit....unusual indeed

 

BFTP

[Skullzrulerz]

Ouch the few comments saids it all about the GFS unfortunately but most likely was going to and has somewhat gone with the UKMO

Though there is still time for it to change but not looking bright in that respect

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Big solar wind hit starting today, I think we’ll see some further adjustments ahead.  Let’s see what Monday/Tues bring us. This is a massive coronal hole bringing monthly hit after hit....unusual indeed

 

BFTP

Been reading about this recently. Am I right in saying that this massive hole which is causing monthly geomagnetic storms at the pole is having the same affect as solar flares? If so, this cannot be a great sign for cold winter chances as the jet will be fired up.

[Weegaz]

2 minutes ago, togwotee pass said:

Could be some vicious storms on the way, I'll be following knocker's posts for a few days I think.

Indeed, starting Friday 

Edited December 8, 2018 by Weegaz

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Indeed, starting Friday 

Might need to stop worrying about naming storms but actually start to worry about their impact  

Edited December 8, 2018 by Mokidugway

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Might need to stop worrying about naming storms but actually start to worry about their impact  

What weather service predicted a repeat of 2013-2014?

[Derecho]

16 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Been reading about this recently. Am I right in saying that this massive hole which is causing monthly geomagnetic storms at the pole is having the same affect as solar flares? If so, this cannot be a great sign for cold winter chances as the jet will be fired up.

There is no evidence to suggest that a solar flare in itself is responsible for the firing up of the North Atlantic. Why would a geomagnetic storm form a low pressure system that would specifically conspire only against us to stop a cold spell? We have had many severely cold winters with high solar activity and very mild winters with low solar activity. The only things that the literature have found is that solar activity slightly increases then chance of a severely cold winter in our part of the world.

 

The main problem is that the Scandi High isn't strong enough to withstand an Atlantic onslaught if the 18z were to verify and no energy can slip under the block (if the 18z verifies). The other problem is the huge temperature off the eastern coast of Canada. Get rid of the cold pool in NE Canada and things may calm down a bit. A solar flare isn't responsible there are too many other factors influencing things simultaneously.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

What weather service predicted a repeat of 2013-2014?

You tell me lol

[Weegaz]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

What weather service predicted a repeat of 2013-2014?

The Express, or was it Daily Mail 

[Mokidugway]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

What weather service predicted a repeat of 2013-2014?

Possibly  the Trinadad and Tobago national weather service 

[lassie23]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

You tell me lol

 

Just now, Weegaz said:

The Express, or was it Daily Mail 

lol maybe the voices in my head told me

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

There is no evidence to suggest that a solar flare in itself is responsible for the firing up of the North Atlantic. Why would a geomagnetic storm form a low pressure system that would specifically conspire only against us to stop a cold spell? We have had many severely cold winters with high solar activity and very mild winters with low solar activity. The only things that the literature have found is that solar activity slightly increases then chance of a severely cold winter in our part of the world.

 

The main problem is that the Scandi High isn't strong enough to withstand an Atlantic onslaught if the 18z were to verify. The main problem is the huge temperature off the eastern coast of Canada. Get rid of the cold pool in NE Canada and things may calm down a bit. A solar flare isn't responsible.

You were direct with your reply there and each to their own. Now allow me to be just as direct when I say that I totally disagree with your assumptions on this subject.

[Derecho]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

You were direct with your reply there and each to their own. Now allow me to be just as direct when I say that I totally disagree with your assumptions on this subject.

Can you elaborate on why you disagree?

[MattStoke]

At least the strat warming continues to be modeled. Just differences with timing and exact positioning and strength. As you'd expect at such range. Develops slightly later on this run, but is at its strongest for longer.

Edited December 8, 2018 by MattStoke

[lassie23]

11 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Possibly  the Trinadad and Tobago national weather service 

i'll be getting the winter forecast from them from now on

[Weathizard]

24 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Might need to stop worrying about naming storms but actually start to worry about their impact  

Indeed, could be a real worry for some areas. The ground around here is saturated at the moment and with more rain forecast and these storms possibly to come we could have bigger concerns than a bit of snow!

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Can you elaborate on why you disagree?

Many years of reading on the subject and my own observations on such matters. I remember making a post on this forum many years ago on this subject and another member suddenly turned all keyboard warrior and tried (but failed) to trash my comments. He or she failed because in more recent years most of the professionals now agree on the link between solar minimum and cold winter's in western Europe. We are approaching solar minimum but the difference this time round is the gaping coronal hole in the sun which is spewing out immense energy akin to what happens during higher solar activity. I believe from many articles I have read that this adds incredible energy and mobility to earth's weather circulations.

[Man With Beard]

Still lots of variation on the clusters as early as Friday 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Still lots of variation on the clusters as early as Friday 

All much of a muchness though it has to be said.

[Derecho]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Many years of reading on the subject and my own observations on such matters. I remember making a post on this forum many years ago on this subject and another member suddenly turned all keyboard warrior and tried (but failed) to trash my comments. He or she failed because in more recent years most of the professionals now agree on the link between solar minimum and cold winter's in western Europe. We are approaching solar minimum but the difference this time round is the gaping coronal hole in the sun which is spewing out immense energy akin to what happens during higher solar activity. I believe from many articles I have read that this adds incredible energy and mobility to earth's weather circulations.

I'm not convinced unfortunately, all you have to do is look at solar flux and its relationship with CET to see how weak any link is

 Lockwood et al (2010) Solar flux on x axis, winter CET on y axis

A very weak correlation there (r ~ 0.2) so I'm not convinced of any link , it may be one factor in amongst a myriad of others that makes weather forecasting so difficult. If I were to say a reason why it didn't materialise you can see from the 18z...

  

Whenever someone mentions coronal hole in a winter forecast it just reminds me of excuses from Piers Corbyn when a winter forecast is failing.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Banbury]

A personal opinion but I cant see much in the way of Winter for my back yard until after Xmas , probably mostly wet rather than white but not without interest for the usual suspects 

[snowangel32]

Seems like we lost out this time as that damm atlantic just keeps throwing dartboard lows at us. Could be some potentially damaging storms. But on to the next one lets try and be positive and hope we finally get lucky. Damm models teased us the past 48 hours just to fold at the crucial time. If it changes its mind and corrects bk west again i am going to need prozac and its only early December lol. Goodnite all.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I'm not convinced unfortunately, all you have to do is look at solar flux and its relationship with CET to see how weak any link is

A very weak correlation there (r ~ 0.2) so I'm not convinced of any link , it may be one factor in amongst a myriad of others that makes weather forecasting so difficult. If I were to say a reason why it didn't materialise you can see from the 18z...

  

Certainly many variables at play which makes meteorology so fascinating. With regards to sst's in the Atlantic  and it's affect on the nao, the met office used this as one of their main driver's for UK winter weather forecasts for many years - sst's off the eastern seaboard of US in May corresponding to those during the following winter. The met office then abruptly changed this method of forecasting about 8 to 10 years ago due to little evidence of this theory having any bearing on UK winter patterns at all.