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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Lol at everyone posting the same chart! 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Atlantic hits a trump wall on this run, really intruiging to see how this develops. Also worth remembering with a continental flow like that and heavier PPN the magic -5 850’s aren’t always required.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Lol at everyone posting the same chart! 

Dog eat dog chart posting world mate

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Nice bit of cold air nudging the east of the UK. Good for the Kent and East Anglia crew. 

ECM0-144.gif

Cold but dry though? I’d rather gamble at chance of the snowy jackpot? 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

And we will stop there with the ECM, nothing more to see.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

You best edit to say chalk and cheese with UKMO mate, not previous run.

Yup, just noticed that, cheers for pointing it out.

 

Also lovely T144, battleground me thinks, by T168 the Atlantic comes through but thats a long way off. FI is at T96 now by the look of things.:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold but dry though? I’d rather gamble at chance of the snowy jackpot? 

I think most of us are factoring in some further 'corrections' on the models, and that by T0 the cold will be further west by a couple hundred miles maybe.  Let the trend be your friend, they used to say on here...

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold but dry though? I’d rather gamble at chance of the snowy jackpot? 

Fine margins, Tim. Yes 6hr difference but at this range, still in the equation.

gfs-2-138.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
50 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Whatever the individual operational runs are showing there's a Battleground set to develop next week between the atlantic / scandi block with fronts struggling to push east into some cold air..recipe for rain to turn to sleet / wet snow!!..very good to see this so early in winter!!:santa-emoji:

Yay!  Frosty's back!  Now I KNOW it's definitely winter and it's gonna SNOW!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
6 hours ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Audacious comment. Be hopeful for sure, but NEVER expect anything

We will see! 20th December, remember the date, check the charts!

In the nearer time, the ECM looks an upgrade for snow later this week surely? 

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL

Never seen a transition like it... at +144 you have increasingly Cold air backing West . 24 hours later it's all moved 1000 Miles East .. Don't have much confidence in the later stages of ECM

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

.....and here's the first decent snow depth chart of the winter:

image.thumb.png.74954c39cf4a49ed6a6a6822c8404a28.png

Of course, everyone here knows it won't happen exactly like that.      Will it?

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

Never seen a transition like it... at +144 you have increasingly Cold air backing West . 24 hours later it's all moved 1000 Miles East .. Don't have much confidence in the later stages of ECM

We really won't know until that block sets up shop. Could be 48hrs out before the models really have it pinned. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

Never seen a transition like it... at +144 you have increasingly Cold air backing West . 24 hours later it's all moved 1000 Miles East .. Don't have much confidence in the later stages of ECM

There is no confidence at that range, Chris. That`s what people class as  `Fantasy Island` as you are looking for trends not answers, in this case not a great trend but no doubt it will be different tomorrow, either positive or negative.

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
2 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

.....and here's the first decent snow depth chart of the winter:

image.thumb.png.74954c39cf4a49ed6a6a6822c8404a28.png

Of course, everyone here knows it won't happen exactly like that.      Will it?

I bet those in Warwickshire will be thinking otherwise

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Guys chill out its only weather I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad! Nobody died.just give it a few days.look NNW all good

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

.....and here's the first decent snow depth chart of the winter:

image.thumb.png.74954c39cf4a49ed6a6a6822c8404a28.png

Of course, everyone here knows it won't happen exactly like that.      Will it?

That is the 00Z chart, tonight`s will look different.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

Looking very interesting Thursday a chance of snow as a front moves in from west and colder air moves in From east what happens after that still up in air could we see the front stall and move back west ..

4CC2126C-D431-41F3-9C4E-822A9D79CF50.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

There is no confidence at that range, Chris. That`s what people class as  `Fantasy Island` as you are looking for trends not answers, in this case not a great trend but no doubt it will be different tomorrow, either positive or negative.

Aye. It just adds more confusion to the already high level of uncertainty, resulting in even more anxiety...

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