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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Hang on, Perkins got blown up a few seconds after that shot !

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ECM marginally better than UKMO at T96.

T120 all important now.

ECE1-96.png

UE96-21.gif

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Great 96 ECM

656BCBEF-912C-4DAD-B0F5-E9CB8D3E6CDB.thumb.png.404410e825dd223d13528893e9655e91.png1A4AD69C-B468-4DB6-B352-18E6E932760E.thumb.jpeg.70637e1489f1d8433918fa44a32c8d56.jpeg

LOL Steve - you really are hilarious at times, that post cheered me right up!!

As you say, EC better than ukmo at 96- (toddles off back into the background).

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ECM T120, difficult to know what to compare against, as previous run is out by 12 hours, and UKMO 12z is suspected of being an outlier, or worse the vanguard of an alien invasion, so have decided to go with GFS at same time here:

image.thumb.jpg.defd2673e00d11ed82cef2519b545b98.jpg

 

image.thumb.jpg.f41213e0bc337b4f6166fc3a31018dc3.jpg

Looks OK is all I'll say, considerably further west.

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How about 120 ecm game on if the ECM is right good run so far

ECM1-120.thumb.gif.8306f2d28c0e2b0cf708ec91c77eddd5.gif

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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Much of a muchness regardlng the cold at T120...

EDIT: which is not a downgrade on previous

 

ECM0-120.gif

Edited by Stuie W

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Chalk and cheese compared to UKMO at T120, yes much, much better!:oldgood:

ECM1-120.gif

UW120-21.gif

ECM0-120.gif

UE120-7.gif

Edited by snowray

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2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Much of a muchness regardlng the cold at T120...

 

ECM0-120.gif

Wouldn't take much for those -4/-6 uppers to get over East Anglia and it could well be game on for a time

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Chalk and cheese at T120, yes much, much better!:oldgood:

ECM1-120.gif

UW120-21.gif

ECM0-120.gif

UE120-7.gif

You best edit to say chalk and cheese with UKMO mate, not previous run.

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent EC !!

🙂

Yes, Atlantic held west, is on GFS too, could we see a dry day in the west? definitely will in the east

ECM1-120.GIF?08-0

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1 minute ago, CanadaAl said:

Wouldn't take much for those -4/-6 uppers to get over East Anglia and it could well be game on for a time

Yep those in the east will be tasting snow flakes.

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3 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

Wouldn't take much for those -4/-6 uppers to get over East Anglia and it could well be game on for a time

If Saffers gets something mate I`ll let you know. It won`t be Canada style!

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ECU0-144.GIF?08-0

Very nice! Just a few corrections west and most of the UK could be in for the fun

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Couldn't get any closer than this nail biter or what epic battle

ECM0-144.thumb.gif.8a6aa83e7e5e7a1b2667e0adaaa11426.gif

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-7c Scraping the SE @144 with -5c more widespread - could do with a bit more undercutting though- but 8/10 none the less

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Nice bit of cold air nudging the east of the UK. Good for the Kent and East Anglia crew. 

ECM0-144.gif

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The uppers to our North and East are quite poor for the time of year. I don't see any proper cold over the Arctic which I guess is a symptom of global warming. 

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The big three side by side at T144
image.thumb.png.8acc34d29987f5c7a7c483715f8e2406.png UKMO - Pass me the sick bucket

image.thumb.png.a23a6e541d72c4c2bd4ba91185098ad7.png GFS - Better
 image.thumb.png.11d196d03e157eee641436865d9d2243.png ECM - Looking rather interesting

If we can shift everything further west then that will make things really interesting!

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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