Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Out to 186 and not sure where this is heading for our small island, but the NH is absolutely primed for cold weather to flood into lower latitudes later in the month.  Great stuff and all prior to the potential SSW.

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Ice Day said:

Out to 186 and not sure where this is heading for our small island, but the NH is absolutely primed for cold weather to flood into lower latitudes later in the month.  Great stuff and all prior to the potential SSW.

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

I agree, but whats bothering me is the endless conveyor belt of lows coming off the ES..

Looks like we are going to have to be very patient - i can only see more wind and rain for the forseeable..

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Weather-history said:

tumblr_p7tc260LBG1r3hg0io1_500.gif

Sums it up for me.

Hehe that made me chuckle Kevin!!

I think you are right though, for all the hope and expectation, its shaping up to be an absolute horror December..

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I agree, but whats bothering me is the endless conveyor belt of lows coming off the ES..

Looks like we are going to have to be very patient - i can only see more wind and rain for the forseeable..

5

And that part is key - but I genuinely believe out patience will be rewarded on this occasion!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
9 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Although that GFS and GEM are better generally through what worries me is the UKMO has back tracked 

I don't think that is right, this situation is of high uncertainty, an analogy the casino , the roulette table to your left rolling mainly reds, the one to your right rolling mainly blacks, all perfectly possible.  Just because UKMO has then churned out a bad run (black after a run of reds) doesn't  mean it hasn't been right the last few runs, if other models are picking it up , then actually it probably has.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Out to 186 and not sure where this is heading for our small island, but the NH is absolutely primed for cold weather to flood into lower latitudes later in the month.  Great stuff and all prior to the potential SSW.

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

ECM 12z the other day looked 'primed' after day 10, a day or so later not much difference. Can't help feeling this will be a December with low pressure never far away but strangely cold never far away either, so be prepared for one long tease.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

gfseu-0-216.png?12

Those heights across Southern Europe are an absolute bane..

 

Sadly been the story in general of the last few winters or so...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

ECM 12z the other day looked 'primed' after day 10, a day or so later not much difference. Can't help feeling this will be a December with low pressure never far away but strangely cold never far away either, so be prepared for one long tease.

 

Absolutely, the story of every winter for UK cold and snow lovers!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
26 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The difference between UKMO and the GFS at T120 is laughable. 

5811ADE3-5BDB-45E7-B170-9585267DC2CE.gif

6BB02FCC-04B5-4DE6-96A7-E86D673AFB23.png

Yes I noticed that I tell you what though there is some serious storms.

And the PV is taking an absolute battering.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

No worries people. The pros have always gone for uncertainty. ✴

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Still looking toasty in the strat towards the end of the run.... and not at 384 either!

gfsnh-10-312.png?12

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
11 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

ECM 12z the other day looked 'primed' after day 10, a day or so later not much difference. Can't help feeling this will be a December with low pressure never far away but strangely cold never far away either, so be prepared for one long tease.

'primed' after day 10', says it all. Honestly try checking like for like at those time scales it will be rather more consistent , honestly!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

The strat warming continue to be modelled. -8 from +312 hours.

warm.png

Edit: Someone always beats me to it!

Edited by MattStoke
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Satans love child has appeared in the form of tonights UKMO.

A horrible run which unravels as early as T96 hrs. The big problem is you can see the lack of phasing at the key timeframe  of the two lows to the west and nw .

The phase motion slows the earthwards progression and takes the energy ne then nw as the other Atlantic low phases at the base of the main trough .

The UKMO just barrels everything east and it’s game over .

We are talking at just day 4 and it’s very unusual for it to be that far out at that timeframe . 

We await the ECM but even if that’s still okay we’ll have to wait to tomorrow morning .

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The strat warming continue to be modelled. -8 from +312 hours.



Edit: Someone always beats me to it!

Cooled a bit by end of run, but more widespread,  has it done the job?

image.thumb.jpg.60c80ca0c766b4f00c98ac9d5a195be1.jpg

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
9 minutes ago, stodge said:

You're a miserable sod, aren't you? If it's not the heights over southern Europe, it's the lack of heights over northern Europe.

Winter is eight days old, not eighty-eight and cold spells in December rarely amount to much which is why we remember 2010 so well (but who remembers Jan and Feb 2011?).

If you've also forgotten, we had a fairly interesting wintry spell in March 2018.

 

Had this debate the other day...you've forgotten 2009 and to a degree last year (in instances), January has been a pee poor month since 2013 in general. The straw I'm clutching at currently is we see no raging jet or Greenland PV but there's always time for that too to change! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The strat warming continue to be modelled. -8 from +312 hours.

warm.png

Edit: Someone always beats me to it!

And look at this - the best 1mb temp and heights profile so far, that red line must be continuing on the mountain torque charts, its seems that just as the warming seems to fizzle out - a new injection of heat seems to ensue.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018120812&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Cooled a bit by end of run, but more widespread,  has it done the job?

image.thumb.jpg.60c80ca0c766b4f00c98ac9d5a195be1.jpg

 

GP thought there would be significant warming on the 26th. He hasn't posted in a few days but hopefully he'll give an update on whether things are still going along with his thoughts, whether timing has changed a bit, whether the GFS is just too progressive with it or whether there's something else we should be looking at. Don't know much on the subject myself, unfortunately.

Edited by MattStoke
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

39 members online so I take it all faith is in the UKMO outlook then. Might as well it`s never wrong.

Let`s see what the ECM churns out. Not looking for much of an upgrade, the same or slightly better will do but if it back tracks a bit I hope it isn`t too gloomy in here.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...