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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Meant to post this last night  but some forecasters saying mild Christmas. At this range ,about any thing could turn up ,strange year weather wise so far ,snow in the forecast tomorrow , STORMY with i

I'm sorry for being off topic but I'm sure mods will forgive me for this one. Very sorry to hear you're missing your wife, this time of year can be especially hard and you can't just switch off that s

I love having the FV3 now.  There used to be that dead time between the end of the GFS and the start of the ECM where I had to talk to the wife.  Not any more ?

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Surprise, surprise...after December 21, the GEFS op is an outlier. Who'd a thunk it!?

GEFS Ensembles Chart

 

The ops leading the way ??? . The ensembles will wake up soon and smell the coffee . ?

Edited by ICE COLD
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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The ops leading the way ??? . The ensembles will wake up soon and smell the coffee . ?

It's almost as if the building blocks, the SSW at T+384 and the overpowering smell of freshly ground coffee, have all gone into stasis? I think my TARDIS must've got stuck!?

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1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Nothing exciting at Sea Level on the GFS - strong LP's held off by the emerging Scandi.

FI has the Polar floodgates possibly opening on 24-12-18 :santa-emoji:

h500slp.thumb.png.59e45c1da37ffeb5ed254e8d6f0289ee.png

.....but it's FI

I'd take that any day of the week and gladly wait for it...as always...FI land ...but having flicked through the charts up till then (admittedly only GFS) with my extremely amateurish eyes...this is the only thing that really resembled 'winter'.....what i'd give for a snowy Christmas !!....hopefully exciting times ahead for this winter...hats off to all you knowledgeable posters on here..makes great reading!!  

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Just for fun, nitpicking I know.

Comparing the strat plot from a few days ago with the latest one...

ha-plot-0812.thumb.png.71d2306c791b5b50a44f9197f27a7c41.png

GEFS strat charts have relaxed a bit over the past few days. Still showing a lovely big drop in U winds, just not quite as much as at the start of the week. Not one member spotted that minor spike on the 10th / 11th though (only 6 days away at the time).

However, I reckon we will see more and more members drop back under 0 m/s at the end of the graph in the coming 7 - 10 days. And stay there. Got to think we must be 60% for a SSW out of this.

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1 hour ago, snowray said:

In my experience once you miss a decent chance of an easterly or northerly, ie cold air grinds to a halt at Lowestoft and heads south, along with piles of snow down the north sea with none of it coming inland in the UK, well it can be a long wait until something else of interest turns up, particularly when the Atlantic fires up before Christmas and before you know it its early February. Hopefully this winter will be different, the signs are all there.

 

Looking at the GFS high res model, the lower dew points are not too far away, just to our south east over Benelux but over us and to our south we are still looking at mainly 2s and 3s, still time though for this to improve of course, long may the upgrades continue, 12z UKMO and ECM really important today.

144-101UK.gif

150-101UK.gif

yes indeed interesting stuff.

i noticed the gfs 6z has the heights pushing out from the far sw.

and signs of the heights to our south is receding although there's loads of other options.

but i feel the scandi ridge just does not have the legs to deal with the deep lows coming up against it. 

image.thumb.png.22623180dd087abf56543f7b83e5b71b.png

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7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Guess what guys westward shift again on ICON 12z..?

Its just ridiculous and its happening so early on aswell!!you can tell differences as early as 48 to 60 hours°!!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Its just ridiculous and its happening so early on aswell!!you can tell differences as early as 48 to 60 hours°!!

Yea seems to be the starting data from the off is Westwards correction early doors..

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea seems to be the starting data from the off is Westwards correction early doors..

And prettty much all the models have been doing that oveer the last 24 hours!!

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9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Stronger block & further West.

ICON.thumb.png.c25c7d60685cd995e02417ad50bdffe3.png

The trend continues!

Lol am waiting for those dreaded words from one of the mild lovers on here that the ukmo and gfs 12z are FURTHER EAST?

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2 hours ago, Smartie said:

No not soar, just making a valid point, you're post was inaccurate & I don't  see the need for your somewhat childish reply either. 

Edit : oh and maybe you missed the lol at the end of my reply as well, as I'm a little bit of tounge & cheek. Jeez I like snow as much as the next person who browses this thread but I ain't going to lose any sleep if I see snow or not, I have far more in life to worry about that but having you call me a bit soar kinda makes me think you in fact would be if you missed out on the white stuff. 

I like it how you deliberately included the odd misspelling the OP used in your response ;) I thought I'd become accustomed to some of the appalling mangling of the English language here but 'soar' instead of 'sore' is a brand new and highly amusing example. 

Edited by Seasonality
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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Lol am waiting for those dreaded words from one of the mild lovers on here that the ukmo and gfs 12z are FURTHER EAST?

Don't worry shaky, I think the 12zs will be OK. And don't let other folks' schadenfreude wind you up. 

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11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I like it how you deliberately included the odd misspelling the OP used in your response ;) I thought I'd become accustomed to some of the appalling mangling of the English language here but 'soar' instead of 'sore' is a brand new and highly amusing example. 

Nope the word was "sour" and my bloody phone and its predictive texting.?

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