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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

gfsnh-0-96.png?12

GFS in its early stages a fair bit better than any of its other runs recently, unlikely to be enough though but nice to see the block fighting back?

that's quite some shift at only 4 days out

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

UKMO still the best for blocking

 

Screenshot_20181207-160004.png

UKMO is very very close to a marginal snow event for the UK

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Am trying to keep my exciteent under check but i gota say what an improvement on the gfs and that ukmo chart has got me drooling right now!!carries on from the 00z run!!

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted (edited)

GFS still persisting with these ludicrous lows that people said wouldn't verify.

Will be interesting to see if they still appear that deep in a couple of days time - and think of the difference that might make if they're shallower.

Screenshot_20181207-160409.png

Edited by Johnp
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 6 is disrupting the main trough to our sw and the scandi ridge is better aligned ....... they thought it was all over .....

I didn't...

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 6 is disrupting the main trough to our sw and the scandi ridge is better aligned ....... they thought it was all over .....

GFS is actually better aligned than UKMO at 120 - the question is what happens next?

gfsnh-0-120.png?12UN120-21.GIF

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO is very very close to a marginal snow event for the UK

So marginal to marginal then? Let's just call it marginal among friends 

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I didn't...

Me neither 

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

It’s not likely make a massive difference, but if we keep seeing changes like that at day 4 even that early, you never know what could happen... it’s quite w significant shift west

7B82D3B1-A5B2-4E6F-98C1-FF01EAFCC57E.png

0477F95E-E07C-4145-A778-047F2DB55586.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Lets just say its complicated !!

UKMO has not backed down from disrupting the low, its absolutely chalk and cheese to this mornings EC at 144- UKMO has a good chunk of energy heading SE - still think the Atlantic is coming but early changes could have big ramifications thereafter with the broadscale set up.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

UKMO isn't quite Mr Kipling yet but it is pretty good. 

UE144-7.gif

UE144-21 (3).gif

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Another slight correction west and it's a potentially snowy Thursday for some

gfsnh-0-144.png?12

Possibly, we’ve seen it happen before. 

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
8 hours ago, carinthian said:

Think UKMO run is the best run again in the hunt for cold especially in the medium term. I noticed on the chart below that the flow backs during the period 120 to 144T and introduces colder uppers back into Eastern Areas. So still clinging on to the prospects of some type of undercut. Longer term , you would expect the Atlantic troughs to be driven through on a fairly strong 300mb jet that heads for Southern Britain and deviates into Europe. However, looks like the UK will be on the slightly colder side of the Polar Jet, so never that mild. One features that is still resilient throughout the runs is the high block to the NE and could easily force its hand again in later runs. In the meanwhile, the main models show a deep Atlantic system fuelling a returning Pm into much of NW Europe.

C

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Indeed the latest UKMO continues with a prospect of some sort of undercut. At 144t upper cold air being returned into much of Eastern and Northern Britain. Hold on to your hats. More good news to come tomorrow?

C

UW144-7.gif

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted

Remember a few days ago, I posted an analogy where if you were aiming at a target I.e. the centre is the sweet spot with best synoptic and during your aim you passed through the centre and then back again on the second pass, this could be it. One can hope

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted (edited)

This should start getting the attention of those in the NE of the British Isles for starters. It only needs a slight correction west and it's game on

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.e66cf1e7ea5d23022c84660ce33bec18.png

The Atlantic is coming through but the axis and latitude are clearly still up for grabs. Not only will this make a big difference on the day but ramifications in the mid term.

Edited by s4lancia
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

This should start getting the attention of those in the NE of the British Isles for starters. It only needs a slight correction west and it's game on

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.e66cf1e7ea5d23022c84660ce33bec18.png

The Atlantic is coming through but the axis and latitude are clearly still up for grabs. Not only will this make a big difference on the day but ramifications in the mid term.

1

Are we really sure?  Tonight's ECM is critical as ever but if it shows a significant westward shift then who knows?

Edited by mulzy
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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted (edited)

When a model goes the way of GFS (all flabby and disorganised) this is sure sign the model has lost the plot.

It normally means there is a change coming but the model has not been able to resolve it

Edited by warrenb
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Yep, the block isn't going without a fight looking at the GFS and UKMO. Interesting.

Yes and hence this sentence in the METO update is worthy of notice

 

"there is a fine balance between colder air to the east and milder air in the west"

Edited by winterof79
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
20 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Remember a few days ago, I posted an analogy where if you were aiming at a target I.e. the centre is the sweet spot with best synoptic and during your aim you passed through the centre and then back again on the second pass, this could be it. One can hope

Sorry Had Worse I don't get what you mean there.

Nice to see the high further west, will it be enough though? UKMO looks the best at T144, ties in with the earlier T168 chart that was posted from the 00z suite. The undercut alone, should it happen, would suck in the colder air from the continent I would have thought so could see rain turning to sleet and snow in eastern areas. At least we have some interest coming back in today's 12z runs.

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