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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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1 hour ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Such a dissapointment when considering a few days ago the mean was consistently below the average even into FL, a growing number of exceptionally mild runs there as well as we enter Winter. Also it seems the the snow row has dropped significantly as well... 
A monumental improvement needed by all models on the 12Z runs.
gefsens850Birmingham0.png

You  cannot  just use the gfs ensembles as a tool to make a forecast in the longer range.What about the ecm ensembles etc. TBH I find the METO extended text forecasts on their website a lot more accurate than just using the gfs.

 

They still talking about chance of even colder weather or maybe a short lived less cold spell,and they have a lot more data than we have at our disposal.

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

You  cannot  just use the gfs ensembles as a tool to make a forecast in the longer range.What about the ecm ensembles etc. TBH I find the METO extended text forecasts on their website a lot more accurate than just using the gfs.

 

They still talking about chance of even colder weather or maybe a short lived less cold spell,and they have a lot more data than we have at our disposal.

I accept that the Met Office have a lot more data and tools at there disposal, but I am unable to comment on such things as I don't have access to them. 

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Unfortunately in the medium time frame the low to the south west becomes the main driver introducing much milder temperatures, which is a real shame given how there are colder 850s pooling to the north.

icon-0-180.png

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11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Looks decent, this from ICON 12z at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.670ca5925f8b1e83da7339776fabef7c.jpg

Compare GFS 6z at same time, this one has the heights spewing out into the likes of Germany:

image.thumb.jpg.785c0935a7ba1d3fd3b97988988d7679.jpg

ICON looks much better, I think.

The problem is still what's also happening over Spain pressure is shown to build which is forcing the low/s in the Atlantic north 

icon-0-144.thumb.png.89b7df91049acf78e05a44c5d6a5fe0f.pngicon-0-168.thumb.png.2a113e1a1c18b7b1d6788ad446e60c5c.pngicon-0-180.thumb.png.4507b836422e32b3ad7dbfd45f273c20.png

It certainly wouldn't be really mild but at the same time never getting really cold

icon-1-144.thumb.png.578f2cee4446208b6e1c7c0e7ea6c765.pngicon-1-168.thumb.png.0c316e256e8ba449edb703a712687cee.pngicon-1-180.thumb.png.4e4c8f9dddf252d2f9967c5c3560d923.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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ICON was another improvement but that low to sw would give you the skitter why do lows always blow themselves up over the uk.🤮

But on a brighter note once that low clears pressure building towards Greenland we should see a Northerly like what other models have shown in the fi.

Screenshot_20181118-153056_Chrome.jpg

Edited by booferking
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ICON done and looks good, couple of further comparisons with GFS 6z, here at T156

image.thumb.jpg.ef6501a50c34cec5287b347078bb8c55.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7540a71f9591d4003cef12e551922a06.jpg

Notice the low W of UK, splitting up on the ICON, maintaining form on GFS, roll forward to T180:

image.thumb.jpg.fd6540105888fee61e57285fbcad040b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ea7bdbcdd3b8eca16e6267bc0f7e4b37.jpg

Goes under and supports block, whereas GFS it just sits there being annoying.

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UKMO 12z at T144 laughably different to recent output, and better:

image.thumb.jpg.9841f3ea0c1a39fbc14d775355d33121.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Ukmo solid, hopefully like the ground will become👍👍

8172519F-92D4-4A07-ABC9-FC607FA7D17E.png

78FC6630-F9A7-468F-9EAE-4A0966656947.png

Edited by That ECM
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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO is a 😍

144

UN144-21.GIF

like to see the day 7 ..... 

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Gem Hello hello what we got here Northerly.😎❄️

Screenshot_20181118-160615_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181118-160624_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181118-160923_Chrome.jpg

Edited by booferking
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

like to see the day 7 ..... 

I would LOVE to see day 7 blue..

UKMO really puts the cat among the pidgeons tonight!!

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GEM (I know) very similar to the UKMO 144

GEM1.thumb.png.bfdc88812324541d6b296032866564f2.png

But it does go on to produce this..

GEM.thumb.png.59a0ea8ad22e2b3bdd1f0bfe026b1d57.png

Big steps forward..

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

like to see the day 7 ..... 

Expecting cold to be pulled down from the NE? Possible imo.

Edited by That ECM
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does anyone know if the fv3 / GFS(p) has an ensemble suite we can view? 

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Great start the the 12 z suite. GFS better ridging into GL early on as well.

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GFS starting to elongate the low, first early signs of trough disruption.. come on GFS, you can do it!

207984421_Atlanticlow.thumb.png.cf71dc47fb872564a90712b3423062f1.png

Heights further North and bette orientated, too. Could this be a 2010 all ensemble/model switch to cold?

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A chance of a blast from the north or northeast?

Netweather GFS Image

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Gawd I hope UKMO 144 comes off, i can't see an easy way to mild from there!!

Still a little to far out to be confident ...

 

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Here's Day 7...Cold looks the odds-on favourite, but will it fall at the last fence?

Netweather GFS Image

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6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Expecting cold to be pulled down from the NE? Possible imo.

The Atlantic trough is what matters .......the cold will come down  if that trough is weaker than has been modelled and disrupts and undercuts 

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2 hours ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Hello WalsallWeather123 I concur with you. This seems to be an occasion where I would like an increased precipitation signal as well as increase intensity. I believe timing of such precipitation will be crucial in determining the precipitation type. 

Does the Arpege fit the bill there AppleUK?😉

arpegeeur-2-57.png

arpegeeur-2-60.png

arpegeeur-2-63.png

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