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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Now then UKMO !!

Are you having a change of heart?

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

There are two issues here. On the one hand, the extra Atlantic progression in the past 36 hours is partly a result of very tight lows around D5-D7 - these are often downgraded nearer the time (though but always). On the other hand, the cold looks too far east now to be sucked back even if we do get disruption in a favourable way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Dreadful output today. I'm just waiting for someone to pop up with the usual 'oh at least it's cold zonal weather, we might see one flake of snow over Ben Nevis so it's not all that bad'. Wise up, it's awful. The worst kind of winter weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Dreadful output today. I'm just waiting for someone to pop up with the usual 'oh at least it's cold zonal weather, we might see one flake of snow over Ben Nevis so it's not all that bad'. Wise up, it's awful. The worst kind of winter weather.

rather it was Feb '98 style

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

There are two issues here. On the one hand, the extra Atlantic progression in the past 36 hours is partly a result of very tight lows around D5-D7 - these are often downgraded nearer the time (though but always). On the other hand, the cold looks too far east now to be sucked back even if we do get disruption in a favourable way. 

I'm still of the opinion UKMO 144 is a good chart MWB..

EC not as good at the same time it has to be said, small differences can equal big ramifications down the line..

im not saying its correct , all i'm saying is the 168 chart might be a pleasant suprise when it gets posted this morning..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

At least the Ecm 00z shows cold zonality later on which is much better than sw'ly zephyrs!!!:santa-emoji:

If you live 300m oop norf aye, but I'd prefer SW'ly zephyrs living here

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Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham

 oh lordy lordy

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Good news everyone! The output now shows cold zonal!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Good news everyone! The output now shows cold zonal!

TBH i would just like some restbite from this relentless wind and rain, its literally not stopped raining for like 48 hours  here and i worry flooding is going to be an issue again unless it relents.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, carinthian said:

Think UKMO run is the best run again in the hunt for cold especially in the medium term. I noticed on the chart below that the flow backs during the period 120 to 144T and introduces colder uppers back into Eastern Areas. So still clinging on to the prospects of some type of undercut. Longer term , you would expect the Atlantic troughs to be driven through on a fairly strong 300mb jet that heads for Southern Britain and deviates into Europe. However, looks like the UK will be on the slightly colder side of the Polar Jet, so never that mild. One features that is still resilient throughout the runs is the high block to the NE and could easily force its hand again in later runs. In the meanwhile, the main models show a deep Atlantic system fuelling a returning Pm into much of NW Europe.

C

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Hoooorah !!

I was feeling very lonely with my thoughts on UKMO C !!

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Things look to turn a slow moving and quite banal later on the ecm run. That sturdy high pressure on the eastern seaboard of the US gives me some hope. Looking at the later frames of that run and I cannot see a return to mild dross anytime soon. In fact you could bet on quite a cold run up to and probably including Christmas based on this. 

ECH1-240 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hoooorah !!

I was feeling very lonely with my thoughts on UKMO C !!

still wet and windy from the west tho NW !!!!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

A new trend emerging forget Scandinavian heights let's have a Atlantic ridge build JMA and gem have it showing although fi.

One to keep an eye on because if it happens then just beyond mid month as gp and others have suggested could get very interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Things look to turn a slow moving and quite banal later on the ecm run. That sturdy high pressure on the eastern seaboard of the US gives me some hope. Looking at the later frames of that run and I cannot see a return to mild dross anytime soon. In fact you could bet on quite a cold run up to and probably including Christmas based on this. 

ECH1-240 (1).gif

It's not been a great morning, let's face it, but that isn't a bad chart at all. Purples struggling to establish in Greenland, ridges of high pressure punching their way into the arctic and the jet taking a southerly track. On the less positive side, we've seen plenty of wintry charts (or at least charts that feature that dreaded word - POTENTIAL) that have proved to be false dawns already this season. 

I am generally optimistic that cold and snow will feature strongly this winter though

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

168-192 looks very strange to me..

Block gets absolutely smashed..

not really bud....it's basic physics to my eyes, if you look at the air pressure over central/NE europe, the slab of air in situ simply isn't dense enough to hold more energetic air spilling eastwards in place....and if you look at the core of the HP cell, it remains at about 1032Hpa, and doesn't really move that much from T168 to T216 as air at that pressure is dense enough to stay more or less in situ

Edited by beerandkebab
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Not a fan at all of pattern matching. The number of times people compare the current setup to a past one only for weather to end up completely different. No two events are ever the same.

Of course you can compare events in terms of a few factors but no two events are ever identical in every single factor, and so conditions are never likely to be identical and can often be complete opposites. Weather is just far too variable.

Me neither, Matt...It's nigh on impossible to find a perfect match.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Just now, PerfectStorm said:

I advise all members to not be despondent, there's still plenty of interest around the 8-12 day period. In the immediate, cold zonality under light winds can bring bitterly cold nights with hoar frost. It can also bring (with the right ingredients of course) snow to many. The Jet Stream is forecast to track south of the UK so anything can and will happen. 

In short, reading the models today, we may not see significant snowfall but I don't think we will see just one flake on Ben Nevis either  Looking more seasonal going forward after this horrible wet and mild period. That's still better, isn't it?

absolutely..........and anything is preferable to this horrific wind and rain, rinse & repeat guff we're currently enduring...............hang on, let me look out of the window, and what a surprise it's blowing a hoolie and absolutely chucking it down 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

It will be interesting to see if Exeter change their update later, if they go with the UKM then i suspect they will not change their outlook-Think i will keep the faith that the block will do its job and deflect systems into Europe..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Anyone have the 168h UKMO?

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
54 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Think UKMO run is the best run again in the hunt for cold especially in the medium term. I noticed on the chart below that the flow backs during the period 120 to 144T and introduces colder uppers back into Eastern Areas. So still clinging on to the prospects of some type of undercut. Longer term , you would expect the Atlantic troughs to be driven through on a fairly strong 300mb jet that heads for Southern Britain and deviates into Europe. However, looks like the UK will be on the slightly colder side of the Polar Jet, so never that mild. One features that is still resilient throughout the runs is the high block to the NE and could easily force its hand again in later runs. In the meanwhile, the main models show a deep Atlantic system fuelling a returning Pm into much of NW Europe.

C

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Now that's an interesting chart at 168t from UKMO extended .

C

ukm2.2018121400.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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