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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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25 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

To be fair , these toastie ssw strat charts have been at +384 for the last 3 weeks, (just scroll back through this thread) might be a trend ok, but goes to show you can't take a +384 chart literally as it should be at T+0 by now. For me I think mid Jan onwards will be interesting , especially if you have been following the Sunspot activity , lowest I've seen in years . 

The damage has already been inflicted on the strat vortex, its obituary has already been written. The precursor pattern has been seen in the NWP for some time now. 

It's a bit like men going past the 'point of no return' A chain of events has now been initiated. 

Edited by CreweCold
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Meant to post this last night  but some forecasters saying mild Christmas. At this range ,about any thing could turn up ,strange year weather wise so far ,snow in the forecast tomorrow , STORMY with i

I'm sorry for being off topic but I'm sure mods will forgive me for this one. Very sorry to hear you're missing your wife, this time of year can be especially hard and you can't just switch off that s

I love having the FV3 now.  There used to be that dead time between the end of the GFS and the start of the ECM where I had to talk to the wife.  Not any more ?

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10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The damage has already been inflicted on the strat vortex, its obituary has already been written. The precursor pattern has been seen in the NWP for some time now. 

It's a bit like men going past the 'point of no return' A chain of events has now been initiated. 

hope so mate, it's like anything .. can only take so much ... 

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Now then UKMO !!

Are you having a change of heart?

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Tbh NW I think that ship has sailed now on current chance of an easterly.the Atlantic has just to much energy ATM and the block looks a bit lightweight.its not s bad looking chart but I think looking across the board not this time.hope I'm totally wrong btw!!!

Edited by swfc
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12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Tbh NW I think that ship has sailed now on current chance of an easterly.the Atlantic has just to much energy ATM and the block looks a bit lightweight.its not s bad looking chart but I think looking across the board not this time.hope I'm totally wrong btw!!!

If you run the 120-144 progression i would say the Atlantic has hit a wall and is disrupting at 144..

But thats only my amatuer opinion..

?

ps i think wetter shows it better but i cant post the  charts..

Edited by northwestsnow
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15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If you run the 120-144 progression i would say the Atlantic has hit a wall and is disrupting at 144..

But thats only my amatuer opinion..

?

ps i think wetter shows it better but i cant post the  charts..

looking  at the gfs charts this  morning   the hunt goes on   all i see is plenty  of rain  up to  the 23  dec at the  moment!

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5 minutes ago, tinybill said:

looking  at the gfs charts this  morning   the hunt goes on   all i see is plenty  of rain  up to  the 23  dec at the  moment!

 GFS is bad... and im at work and its rained here ALL night,again..

I can see flooding becoming an issue again soon in the North west..

Ukmo better though ?

on closer inspection GFS is worse than bad...its an abomination!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Worrying about the old soon to be replaced GFS output is akin to complaining about how your old banger keeps breaking down when you have 2 or 3 new reliable cars sat in the garage. Treat the GFS as pure entertainment only, whether that be positive or a horror show. Save the real worry and analysis for UKMO, ECM and the FV3. 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Now then EC..is the block putting up a real fight 144-168...

 

Good start so far!!!could still be in for a turnaround lol!!given me a boost for my run although its hammering down here!!

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Just now, shaky said:

Good start so far!!!could still be in for a turnaround lol!!given me a boost for my run although its hammering down here!!

Although the models are often over progressive with the Atlantic, the block isn't that cold. It is forecast to be above freezing in parts of Germany and Poland all next week. Even southern Sweden is forecast to be between 1-4C. 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

168-192 looks very strange to me..

Block gets absolutely smashed..

It is a fairly weak block, especially against a fairly active Atlantic.

One further issue is the fact it is not a true cold block with low 850s - for December it is not particularly cold a high, so easier to shift.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

168-192 looks very strange to me..

Block gets absolutely smashed..

Actually thought i would take a look and it on second thought it looks terrible at 144 hours!no where near what it was showing last night!!hardly an undercut!!ukmo the best so far!!

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10 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Worrying about the old soon to be replaced GFS output is akin to complaining about how your old banger keeps breaking down when you have 2 or 3 new reliable cars sat in the garage. Treat the GFS as pure entertainment only, whether that be positive or a horror show. Save the real worry and analysis for UKMO, ECM and the FV3. 

FV3 has a nice FI for us. Lows finally digging in, bringing snow and then pulling cold air from north.

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I would laugh if the old GFS calls it right.. That would be called sods law.. 

However, I don't think it will, like we always say the GFS has such a biased output when it comes to Atlantic driven weather... 

Intresting times and like every year its battle of the models! 

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8 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

FV3 has a nice FI for us. Lows finally digging in, bringing snow and then pulling cold air from north.

Agreed. If only it would verify as it sets us up very nicely for a white Christmas and we may avoid the dreaded mild spell that often happens that time of year in Central Europe. Very naughty of me to post 384h charts but doesn't get much better than this for festive cheer

gfs-0-384.png

gfs-1-384.png

gfs-16-384 (2).png

Edited by Seasonality
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Checking out the polar profile as modelled up until a few days ago and now reveals that the failure of a ridge here and the movement of a chunk of vortex there means our ridge is unable to gain the traction it was supposed to via WAA and the subsequent split flow isn’t really split to force any meaningful undercutting to support the fledgling scandi high ....... with a chunk of vortex moving across near Svalbard it could have survived in a sausage shape  if it had established long enough to force a euro trough to hold it up but development over the arctic where the vortex movements were supposed to be on the n Pacific side of the pole are now also occurring on the Atlantic side - hence our ridge doesn’t make it self stick and the Atlantic appears to power through - even so, some impressive trough disruption shows that we really weren’t far away from some of those memorable runs verifying .....

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Well that ecm and gfs were pretty horrible viewing this morning lots more wind and rain to come. Atlantic is looking too powerful at the moment. Sending dartboard lows our way. Now I see the ec46 is our saviour. But wasn’t it only the last few updates where some were saying ec46 changes like the wind. Then we move onto a ssw. Now the only problem with a ssw is it doesn’t guarantee cold weather for the U.K.. even with a ssw we could end up with very similar to what we have now. Yes a ssw does raise our chances of colder weather. But definitely not a guarantee. 

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32 minutes ago, shaky said:

Good start so far!!!could still be in for a turnaround lol!!given me a boost for my run although its hammering down here!!

Chilly rain, the worst weather for running imo. Keep the faith shaky and get out there and laugh in the face of the weather gods. 

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5 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well that ecm and gfs were pretty horrible viewing this morning lots more wind and rain to come. Atlantic is looking too powerful at the moment. Sending dartboard lows our way. Now I see the ec46 is our saviour. But wasn’t it only the last few updates where some were saying ec46 changes like the wind. Then we move onto a ssw. Now the only problem with a ssw is it doesn’t guarantee cold weather for the U.K.. even with a ssw we could end up with very similar to what we have now. Yes a ssw does raise our chances of colder weather. But definitely not a guarantee. 

Good call there.yes I think its been game over ie any easterly in the next ten days or so for a couple of days now.The block isn't substantial enough plus theres no real entrenched cold either.

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31 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

Although the models are often over progressive with the Atlantic, the block isn't that cold. It is forecast to be above freezing in parts of Germany and Poland all next week. Even southern Sweden is forecast to be between 1-4C. 

Parts of. In Warsaw it is mildish on Sunday Monday then trending to average and slightly below from Tuesday. Don't forget, it unusual for the warmer parts of Poland and most of Germany to have above freezing spells in December. Still early in the season. 

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