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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Hopefully that will change as it’s quite far out . I mean 10 days ago we were staring at long zonal spell and the charts looked awful . Then the height rises appeared , I know it’s hasnt really come of but things can change quickly . 

We were? 

Also, that’s a mean chart - it won’t verify like that - the trough would be  more defined somewhere around  the low anomoly ....... not without potential ....

ec46 due out and looking to see if weeks 6/7 are similar with the tend towards the meto extended with northern blocking and suppressed Atlantic trough into nw Europe 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, bluearmy said:

We were? 

Unless I’m imagining it . The models looked awful before these height rises were picked up ? Not that they even looked that good now . 

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Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Unless I’m imagining it . The models looked awful before these height rises were picked up ? Not that they even looked that good now . 

There were a good few days without the thread being 'hot' pardon the pun!

 

Not great for us all yet  but surley this game has only just begun!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Unless I’m imagining it . The models looked awful before these height rises were picked up ? Not that they even looked that good now . 

 

1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

There were a good few days without the thread being 'hot' pardon the pun!

 

Not great for us all yet  but surley this game has only just begun!

Some were less pessimistic than others ............. even when the ops were showing endless mobility and the ens not obvious on amplification.....

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec46 !!!!!!!,

Have you ever seen such strong anomalies at such range before in your life??

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Some further explanation of the ECM 46 dayer would be nice, you teases  Suppose people are restricted as to images they can share though.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Have you ever seen such strong anomalies at such range before in your life??

Not commenting further till  I’ve seen the global picture ........... and T2’s which won’t show till the morning ...

good to see though ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is a January Jackpot.

Could this have something to do with it today's update still showing zonal winds tanking!

Screenshot_20181206-220645_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Some further explanation of the ECM 46 dayer would be nice, you teases  Suppose people are restricted as to images they can share though.

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120600_0600.pngSpákort gert á VÃSpákort gert á VÃSpákort gert á VÃ

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

That low  No wonder the block struggles

16F87AAC-92D6-478E-9ABA-641D664CF38F.png

I'm just thankful it's not heading straight for ireland/scotland. Would cause all sorts of damage. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120600_0600.pngSpákort gert á VÃSpákort gert á VÃSpákort gert á VÃ

That looks absolutely beautiful.

With a heavy heart i will sacrifice Dec for that.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Could this have something to do with it today's update still showing zonal winds tanking!

Screenshot_20181206-220645_Samsung Internet.jpg

Put it this way, with those ridiculous anomalies at more than a months range, you would have to think an SSW is involved on a huge cluster, dont think bluearmy gets the strat charts though on his subscription so we wont know unless someone like Fergie ,Liam dutton or Mtt Hugo or someone  like that comment on twitter.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Have you ever seen such strong anomalies at such range before in your life??

I don't know as I don't see those charts regularly unless someone posts them, but (aside from my flippant comment earlier) from the comments here models such as this are really starting to factor in the SSW now - what I take from this is that the model is suggesting that the SSW, if it happens, will break favourably for the UK.  If so that is very good news.

GloSea5 update should be out next week, will be very interesting indeed!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

If the ec46 and glosea show an ssw then you will see it reflected in the 16/30 dayer  - they will speak of potential for cold at the back end. It’s happened plenty of times in the past. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I don't know as I don't see those charts regularly unless someone posts them, but (aside from my flippant comment earlier) from the comments here models such as this are really starting to factor in the SSW now - what I take from this is that the model is suggesting that the SSW, if it happens, will break favourably for the UK.  If so that is very good news.

GloSea5 update should be out next week, will be very interesting indeed!

Yes, if we do get a decent warming event at that time of year, TBH i would very surprised if we dont at some point get a proper Northern block with cold uppers at some point before the end of the winter and probably January.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Just now, bluearmy said:

If the ec46 and glosea show an ssw then you will see it reflected in the 16/30 dayer  - they will speak of potential for cold at the back end. It’s happened plenty of times in the past. 

Ian replied to a tweet yesterday suggesting that Glosea is predicting a SSW in January.

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