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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

A noticeable shift back Westwards on the ICON with more energy going underneath, good start!

 

WEST.png

Yes much better, battleground scenario back on the table on the ICON 12z, about the best run its come out with I'd say. GP did say I believe that the Scandi high would come back west.

icon-0-153.png

icon-0-165.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Supercallifragilisticexpiallidocious...The 12Z is off to a stonker!!!!!!!!

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

How about this, cold air a lot closer on the ICON, lapping at our eastern shores. Sod's Law usually dictates thats as far as it will get, but all we need is another inch on the chart westwards and its game on again.:clap:

icon-1-165.png

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
6 minutes ago, snowray said:

How about this, cold air a lot closer on the ICON, lapping at our eastern shores. Sod's Law usually dictates thats as far as it will get, but all we need is another inch on the chart westwards and its game on again.:clap:

icon-1-165.png

certainly scope for further improvements 

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
18 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes much better, battleground scenario back on the table on the ICON 12z, about the best run its come out with I'd say. GP did say I believe that the Scandi high would come back west.

icon-0-153.png

icon-0-165.png

 

I've always considered myself to have a basic understanding of model watching but I'm confused here..

Is that not a very cold low pressure system hovering out to our west here? 

 

Yet posters in here seem to want anything but it to hit us, surely it would bring significant snow, sleet/wintry mix to most of the UK if it tracked straight over us? Or do we need colder air from east first here? Surely if that tracked over us it could bring significant wintry weather to us, and then if it managed to make it's way to Scandinavia, offer a reload? Or are posters looking to get that low to Greenland?

 

Edit: Nevermind. Idiocy on my part.

Edited by Deep Snow please
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

I've always considered myself to have a basic understanding of model watching but I'm confused here..

Is that not a very cold low pressure system hovering out to our west here? 

 

Yet posters in here seem to want anything but it to hit us, surely it would bring significant snow, sleet/wintry mix to most of the UK if it tracked straight over us? Or do we need colder air from east first here? Surely if that tracked over us it could bring significant wintry weather to us, and then if it managed to make it's way to Scandinavia, offer a reload? Or are posters looking to get that low to Greenland?

That's the 500Mb charts (Pressure)  You need the 850's

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

GFS has stopped at 66 again.. 

Edit: No it hasn't

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
3 hours ago, WINTRY WALES said:

 

Just a quick note....I can’t see RJS’s winter forecast anywhere...can someon point me towards it. I’ve looked in the obvious but cannot see it

I've bumped it back to the top of the page in the general section - but here is the direct link. Posted on Oct 13. 

 

 

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

GFS has stopped at 66 again.. 

Yep its froze in time again

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Atlantic 3 Siberia 0 bit of a pattern developing this winterroll on winter 2019/2020 when the new ice age begins.

Actually if one wants real heavy frontal snow....I think we need the Atlantic to be in the game....if we get southerly tracking LPs diving into near continent....could be very good.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not good. Not good at all...Atlantic has edged east by 187.7 miles!

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Actually if one wants real heavy fronyal snow....I think we need the Atlantic to be in the game....if we get southerly teacking LPs diving into near continent....could be very good.

 

BFTP

And the Icon is not far from from that scenario. Cold air in situ incoming atlantic low pressure that stalls. Lovely jubbly lol.

Edited by snowangel32
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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nice UKMO

144- Atlantic angle means its not coming through-

 

 

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Not good. Not good at all...Atlantic has edged east by 187.7 miles!

Hmmmm- something has to give between your two opinions!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nice UKMO

144- Atlantic angle means its not coming through-

Quite pleased so far

E3367058-66C0-4A9B-89F9-C9C17CED823A.thumb.png.85a74d319a47f49ec20abdc3212cc708.png

The energy is going over the high as the trough is positively titled. It doesn't look good to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

At t108 the isobars on the LP more vertical, less inroad to the block likely imo 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland

The gfs snow accumulations chart show the Atlantic clashing with the cold over the UK and dumping on the Pennines and Scotland 

7FBB9DD1-9332-4E8A-8DBC-9E1C532164A6.png

A2E67F94-C167-4DD4-9F6E-9372495750C4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

Pleased to report there is a very slight positive regarding the GFS12Z although this still may not result in an ideal outcome for the UK. The lows to the south of Greenland are around 10-15millibars less intense.

gfs-0-114.png

Edited by AppleUK 123
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, karyo said:

The energy is going over the high as the trough is positively titled. It doesn't look good to me.

Yea this morning run looked better cold pool heading to greece but that's my own opinion of course..

UW144-21 (1).gif

UW144-21 (2).gif

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4 minutes ago, karyo said:

The energy is going over the high as the trough is positively titled. It doesn't look good to me.

Yes however it wont go through it like the ECM & as it moves NE it will become neutral the neg tilted allowing Energy SE..

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Yea this morning run looked better cold pool heading to greece but that's my own opinion of course..

UW144-21 (1).gif

UW144-21 (2).gif

I would concur Booferking. A further downgrade compared to the 0Z. Chances of a easterly are fading fast.

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