The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[weirpig]

   

 

Not enough to not let the atlantic  in  but the block is more robust on this run.   edit  para  isnt without interest for some northern members

Edited December 6, 2018 by weirpig

[snowray]

Just now, shaky said:

Still cant believe how things have gone wrong this morning!!happens with easterlys everytime!!gota hope 12zs bring back the cold theme otherwise we staring down another few weeks of boredom!!

Here's the 06z compared to 00z, yes a lot better, just need the 12z runs to pull things back west a bit more.

[shaky]

Gfs control.looks pretty good aswell at 156 hours!much better than the op!more undercuttin and an upgrade on the 00z!

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs control.looks pretty good aswell at 156 hours!much better than the op!more undercuttin and an upgrade on the 00z!

Lol  the control is much better  snow midlands

[johnholmes]

Not only are the synoptic 6 or 12 hour models swopping from run to run. The anomaly charts are not showing any real solid consistency, 2-3 days with charts suggesting an upper flow pattern, then a change, see links below. I suggest that the NOAA 6-10 with its large +ve heights and ridging over N Norway is unlikely to show on the next 6-10. Already no sign of it on its 8-14 version.

The Atlantic, in some form, looks the most likely to me amid all the differing outputs from any source. Probably more Polar than Tropical in terms of weather type. Windy at times as well as surface features deepen as they run across the Atlantic.

Beyond 14 days, not my area so I leave to others. Do not take much notice of the synoptic 6 and 12 hour outputs much further than 144 hours at the moment, and again as I mentioned earlier try comparing like with like at that time scale, perhaps down to 120 hours?

[Danielvn]

2 hours ago, Team Jo said:

Awful Lot of folks on here this morning with an opinion about how silly looking at day 10 models are. Interestingly not many of them had much to say on any output analysis at all until now. Amazing how we have a slew of new experts when the models don’t behave as expected

if you’re in that camp of ‘day 10 model watching is pointless’ then might I suggest you stick to watching the televised weather forecasts and basking in the knowledge that you will probably always be right, and then you can leave those who like to make a stab at a forecast based on output analysis alone to pursue a hobby they enjoy.

nobody gets a prize for being right or wrong and it’s frankly just a bit poor if you enjoy being the person who takes pleasure in saying ‘I told you so’.

there’s lots of other places on the internet for your badly articulated ‘realism’.

Thanks.

 

Apologies if it comes across like that. But it's no different than the people who delight in posting charts which show Nirvana and delight in getting loads of likes for their post and then disappear when it doesn't happen or there are no good charts to post.

I don't mean to come across as one of those people who has a forecasting stone (you know the meme!), I'm a coldie at heart who rather optimistically bought a snow shovel this year and I've been around long enough to know that looking for potential too far in the distance is just going to end up in frustration for a lot of people.

Anyway there still seems to be a bit of snow next week, just not quite what we were all hoping for. Oh well.

[SMU]

GFS control & PTB 1 show how its done-

& thats a cursary glance as well ( PTB 1 !! )

[Met4Cast]

EPS clusters certainly a step towards Atlantic weather this morning

No real sign of bloicking to the NE being able to sustain itself. Quite a sharp temperature boundary between Newfoundland/South Atlantic I suspect the reason for firing up the jet and sending lows directly to us and our block sinks away too far NE. 

Still a chance of course that the models are underestimating it and struggling to send the energy SE underneath, 06z runs a slight improvement but it does seem likely the Atlantic will be making an appearance now, it’d be surprised to see a huge backdown back towards solid blocking and undercutting.

When it gets to the point we’re bringing out individuel ensembles to show cold then you know the models are ditching the idea.

Edited December 6, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS an improvement on 0z suite although not had a real good look.

[minus86BriJ]

7 hours ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Good Morning John, I was trying to explain how December 2018 is increasingly looking like it won’t eclipse December 2017 with cold NW winds and slider lows which means that the Winter to date is nowhere near as good as last year. Also frost and fog has been lagging behind last season as well.

Schadenfreude entry #162.

Johnp pointed out that the meteorological winter is just 6 days old, an indisputable fact that implies there's plenty of time for the 98% of us on here hoping for cold. 

Anyway, I for one am fairly optimistic going forward after reading some of the top players assessments of the potential SSW towards the end of the month. Thumbs up emoji!

Edited December 6, 2018 by Paul

[SMU]

PTB 11 also locking up the SE energy transfer with a corker !

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 11 also locking up the SE energy transfer with a corker !

Go on steve whats your prediction for the 12zs!!i think we going to see an upgrade to that high and will be a much stronger feature!

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 11 also locking up the SE energy transfer with a corker !

You and GP seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet this season. He also warned people not to get fooled into believing the Scandi high would give up so easily. The problem I have is that the gfs 06z suite tends to be the most amplified out of all the runs so the improvement was to be expected to be honest. The 12z runs will be very revealing tonight. I wonder if GP still feels the Scandi high will be more resolute than the output is showing?

[Met4Cast]

GEFS mean suggests the block putting up more of a fight compared to the 6z Det run

Difficult to know where we're going. GEFS/EPS do bring the Atlantic in just slower than the Dets, could be the Dets on both ECM/GFS are being a little too progressive and the ensembles have it about right, in any event Atlantic influence is looking increasingly likely despite the small improvements on the 6z runs.

I'm down to 40% on the deep cold option..

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

You and GP seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet this season. He also warned people not to get fooled into believing the Scandi high would give up so easily. The problem I have is that the gfs 06z suite tends to be the most amplified out of all the runs so the improvement was to be expected to be honest. The 12z runs will be very revealing tonight. I wonder if GP still feels the Scandi high will be more resolute than the output is showing?

 The assumption that the scandi ridge giving up quickly on this occasion is not the same as a scandi ridge reappearing in the modelling in a few days time for week 2 is not necessarily correct - I believe Stewart was of the opinion that we will see further scandi ridging this month but he wasn’t saying next weeks offering is going to stay close enough to w scandi to hold the Atlantic back

incidentally, enough gefs members in their high res phase keep us on our toes for the next set of runs re the battle being worth watching .....

 

 

[frosty ground]

27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS control & PTB 1 show how its done-

& thats a cursary glance as well ( PTB 1 !! )

You can add 2,10,11,13,18 & 19

Or we could equally say that the majority favors the op.

Edited December 6, 2018 by frosty ground

[summer blizzard]

Having just had a chance to review this mornings output i consider many of you too despondent. Although it's true that the easterly attempt is a flop the Euro (backed by the GFS6z) illustrates that the jet stream is still more or less headed into central/southern Europe and so while wet the chances of an eventual northerly or easterly once the upper trough moves east of the UK are still relatively high. 

It's really not a bad place to be in the long run. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

11-12-18 Onward 

Reload Reload Reload

PPN to 600ft asl Pennines in the firing line.

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

GEFS mean suggests the block putting up more of a fight compared to the 6z Det run

Difficult to know where we're going. GEFS/EPS do bring the Atlantic in just slower than the Dets, could be the Dets on both ECM/GFS are being a little too progressive and the ensembles have it about right, in any event Atlantic influence is looking increasingly likely despite the small improvements on the 6z runs.

I'm down to 40% on the deep cold option..

Really? You need to get another fence then Daniel ......... I would put it no more than 20% now on deep cold although I feel there is a 50/50 chance that we see a snow event as the Atlantic comes through in the transition (which could be quite an extended affair)

[swfc]

So not the best day so far regarding anything cold or even dry within the next week or so .The models look to have picked up on a signal since last night and basically ran with it.I don't know if its correct but we often say when a cold spell is looming " we need cross model agreement " so im guessing the same applies whatever the models show.I imo don't see a movement of 50-100 miles either way on a specific run really stopping a more wnw spell of weather.gp posts are hinting at a more favourable set up for later this month so hopefully something festive for xmas for many

Edited December 6, 2018 by swfc

[frosty ground]

A distinctly average outlook with no real mild or cold weatrher expected, with the majority of the sub 0 850's being derived from the atlantic influence I would expect temps to be around average.

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Really? You need to get another fence then Daniel ......... I would put it no more than 20% now on deep cold although I feel there is a 50/50 chance that we see a snow event as the Atlantic comes through in the transition (which could be quite an extended affair)

I see someone woke up on the pessimistic side of the fence this morning..

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 The assumption that the scandi ridge giving up quickly on this occasion is not the same as a scandi ridge reappearing in the modelling in a few days time for week 2 is not necessarily correct - I believe Stewart was of the opinion that we will see further scandi ridging this month but he wasn’t saying next weeks offering is going to stay close enough to w scandi to hold the Atlantic back

incidentally, enough gefs members in their high res phase keep us on our toes for the next set of runs re the battle being worth watching .....

 

 

Cheers. I will take your word for it with regards to Stewart's thoughts. They can sometimes be a little cryptic. That is not a criticism by the way before anyone comments lol. More like me maybe not understanding the ins and outs of what he is portraying.

[Catacol]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 The assumption that the scandi ridge giving up quickly on this occasion is not the same as a scandi ridge reappearing in the modelling in a few days time for week 2 is not necessarily correct - I believe Stewart was of the opinion that we will see further scandi ridging this month but he wasn’t saying next weeks offering is going to stay close enough to w scandi to hold the Atlantic back

incidentally, enough gefs members in their high res phase keep us on our toes for the next set of runs re the battle being worth watching .....

 

 

Yes - agreed. Good summary. Of note perhaps is the rate of decline visible today on the momentum budgets around 30N. Very steep. This suggests to me that a stormy atlantic spell prior to rebuilding of heights in and around 18th Dec could end up being very stormy. I am personally confident in what I have laid out over the last few weeks, which is of a cyclical attempt at high lat blocking that will only really begin to take hold in the second half of the month - but it is uncanny that a momentum signal in the charts today suggests a very stormy period just when RJS suggested there might be one. I know this isnt the seasonal forecast thread, but if you havent read RJS's take on the season ahead over on that thread then do so. Totally different methodology - but an uncanny knack for accuracy.

So - we have a ridge approaching....we will have an atlantic brewing alongside, and in 7 - 10 days' time we will have interaction of the two. Undercut? Heights blown away? Up for grabs....but whatever happens next week I cant see a flat alantic being the end product. Heights will soon pop back up, and with luck our cold air source gets colder in the meantime. Best case scenario next week would obviously be for as much energy as possible to pass under the block, but the sharp fall in momentum evidenced today suggests to me that the storm track next week wont be far enough south for that. Let's wait and see. I'm still munching my breadsticks and hoping to see Muse take to the stage.

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z looks a lot more wintry..and close to Christmas too..Lots of knee jerk reactions earlier...I'm quietly confident there is some wintry weather on the way before crimbo!