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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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24 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Oh wow everybody. Stop writing off winter, people get too excited by charts and then write off winter whenever a few bad runs come along. We are looking at around t96 to t 120 again and the heights need to be in Greenland as well as near us, which helps make the low pressures smaller

I've just read the last 3/4 pages and not one person writes off the winter. Actually everyone seems to be quite positive that the trend is going the right way.

It's disappointing it doesn't look like this current spell will deliver much (still open to change) but many on here clearly state they are looking forward to the next evolution beyond that in the run up to Christmas and beyond.

I think most on here can see the potential this winter, compared to many winters before.

Edited by c00ps

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5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Remember my post the other day about not jumping on the Op before the whole package has come out NWS. Always worth waiting to see where the middle ground lies. Of course the middle ground can be crap too. Lol

Yes, although i wasn't impressed with the UKMO 00z or GFS 00Z and the GEFS 00z are pretty awful , so my reaction to EC was probably a accumulation of those others as well..

I'm not suggesting the EC mean is the holy grail but looking at it, there must still be quite a few members showing Atlantic disruption..

Bed time for me after night shift, i'm kinda still hoping for a switch back to say, the EC det yesterday, although i'm still fearful of another deluge later next week..

I know its only the 6th of Dec but so far ive had 1 dry day and 5 wet ones, add the next 3 or 4 days of wind and rain and that will 9 wet days and 1 dry, thats 2014 kinda stats ..

Edited by northwestsnow

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1 minute ago, c00ps said:

I've just read the last 3 pages and not one person writes off the winter. Actually everyone seems to be quite positive that the trend is going the right way.

It's disappointing it doesn't look like this current spell will deliver much (still open to change) but many on here clearly state they are looking forward to the next evolution beyond that in the run up to Christmas and beyond.

I, and virtually everyone on here, can see the potential this winter compared to many before.

Sorry I just thought I saw a comment saying 'signs are not looking good for the rest of winter but anyway prospects are good.  👍 

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18 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Oh wow everybody. Stop writing off winter, people get too excited by charts and then write off winter whenever a few bad runs come along. We are looking at around t96 to t 120 again and the heights need to be in Greenland as well as near us, which helps make the low pressures smaller

I havn’t read one post writing off Winter

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2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Sorry I just thought I saw a comment saying 'signs are not looking good for the rest of winter but anyway prospects are good.  👍 

Lots to be excited about - that said if we're at the end of Feb and we've just had our 8th failed scandi high/easterly set up and no snow, I might be just saying that winters over lol

Edited by c00ps

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49 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, disappointing outputs this morning.  It has been trending this way but a very decisive move this morning.  Probably need to wait for the 12z’s before finally calling it but it looks like next week’s cold spell is now just a cool dry blip before the Atlantic rushes back in.

The correction east on the block was there to see, the fact the block or should we call it transient high is being pushed a side so quickly is not too surprising, as you say the trend was there for us all to see, but of course the 12z could swing the other way.

I'm glad i wasn't misleading people 

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1 hour ago, markw2680 said:

The trouble is people are constantly looking too far ahead that’s why the disappointment, if you constantly look for stunning charts right in fi then the dates will just keep getting pushed back or it just changes as if it was never there, remember small changes early on end up been pretty big by the end of the run.

there will be some sort of cold next week before just maybe the proper cold beast just around xmas

Exactly,anything beyond t144 is going to be modelled differently when it hits the reliable timeframe.None of the models which showed a decent easterly arriving were in the reliable time frame,it was always after t 144,until any weather modelled in fl hits the reliable timeframe,then always expect big changes in the output ,good or bad if your looking for cold.

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7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The correction east on the block was there to see, the fact the block or should we call it transient high is being pushed a side so quickly is not too surprising, as you say the trend was there for us all to see, but of course the 12z could swing the other way.

I'm glad i wasn't misleading people 

At you insinuating that someone else on here was/is?? 

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59 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

The trouble is people are constantly looking too far ahead that’s why the disappointment, if you constantly look for stunning charts right in fi then the dates will just keep getting pushed back or it just changes as if it was never there, remember small changes early on end up been pretty big by the end of the run.

there will be some sort of cold next week before just maybe the proper cold beast just around xmas

It's like this every year. People keep looking into FI for cold weather, someone "knowledgeable" talks about a sausage or something and then people get excited up until the point that it doesn't actually happen. But people never learn and let this happen again and again and again but yet somehow people seem to keep their mythical status as almighty predictors of weather. It's great to talk about stuff in FI, but at least watch it get close enough to get reliable before getting too excited.

 

That said you've not done yourself a favour making predictions out in FI...

 

Anyway, back to waiting for some nicer charts to turn up in a more reliable timeframe... 😎

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1 minute ago, Smartie said:

At you insinuating that someone else on here was/is?? 

Nope, I was accused of misleading people by talking about a correction east.

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47 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes very disappointed this morning 🙁. But at least it wasn’t a proper beast showing next week , would have been even more annoying. METO and BBC were even on board. Just proves that even with there super computers they can still get it wrong ( not a dig by the way ) . Oh well the signs our still very good moving forward. 

They never mentioned their would be prolonged snow and deep cold,and  METO said it won’t be like March,and any snow on the hills mostly.So how  did they get it totally wrong exactly.

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Not sure if its mentioned this morning but isn't this the norm for GFS.....pick up Easterly at Day 10....drop it a few days later....then smell the coffee and return with the Easterly with 72-96h to go ?

It is normally when the GFS reigns back the easterly that METO extended forecast mentions easterly and snow...and hey presto as if by magic.....😀

 

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That is one serious storm for the south coast in FI on the ECM. Gusting up to 180 km/h in places...

ejMzRAf.png

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UKMO extended has the low in the Atlantic slightly closer to Ireland at t168

ukm2.2018121300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.5562270ae7c42f6a3adcde7e11ec434e.png

Probably not a huge surprise to see the easterly downgrading GEM, JMA and ICON never fully on board

Edited by Summer Sun

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11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

They never mentioned their would be prolonged snow and deep cold,and  METO said it won’t be like March,and any snow on the hills mostly.So how  did they get it totally wrong exactly.

Sleety you have taken it the wrong way mate . If the models reapeat from this morning on the 12z runs and it counts down to T 0 there will not even be an easterly next week . So the models had it wrong , the meto and bbc . Both forecasts said easterly winds and wintry precipitation, there for if tlthe models go on to verify from this morning they’ll be wrong . But like I said it’s not a dig . It’s just hard to predict easterlys . 🙂

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12 minutes ago, radiohead said:

That is one serious storm for the south coast in FI on the ECM. Gusting up to 180 km/h in places...

ejMzRAf.png

Just 122mph gust on Cornwall coast for the bin🤔..

Screenshot_20181206-091211_Chrome.jpg

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No real time to show verification as I’m rushing out, but my recollection over the last week was that icon was probably the most accurate regarding the non-easterly?  Assuming of course that today’s runs are correct!!!

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^^^ Its been a bit woeful but the 06z is  its best run yet -

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3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

No real time to show verification as I’m rushing out, but my recollection over the last week was that icon was probably the most accurate regarding the non-easterly?  Assuming of course that today’s runs are correct!!!

You would be correct will be interesting to see the final outcome..

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

^^^ Its been a bit woeful but the 06z is  its best run yet -

And in this complex set ups there's nothing to say it's wrong.

And there's nothing to say the ECM not right but there's way more twists to come.

That ECM storm looking major.

Definitely something brewing.

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lol the way the models work,next runs will probably upgrade the cold potential again.Dont back against it,seen that happen many times before.

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^^ Its been a bit woeful but the 06z is  its best run yet -

Any charts steve to compare!!

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