The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, shaky said:

Pretty shocked to see how the charts look this morning!!was expecting much better!!hell even the easterly doesnt even reach us!where stuck in no mans land and then atlantic comes steaming in!!so dissapointing man and draining!!

Me too Shaky..

A lot of talk about how the models underestimate blocks, from where im sitting they have underestimated our perennial nemesis, the Atlantic yet again.

Maybe Carol Kirkwood is looking at last nights EC because i can see precious little in the way of snow next week on any of the NWP this morning.

3 perhaps 4 days of colder dry weather..(And the way Dec is shaping up thats about as good as its going to get for a while as its back to wind and rain soonafter)..

Edited December 6, 2018 by northwestsnow

[MR EXTREMES]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Carol Kirkwood says it's going to snow next week, that's good enough for me!! The models still show it turning colder next week compared to this week's mild dross!!

Well sorry to say with this morning outputs won't be much down here.

[terrier]

Well the ecm and gfs are horrible this morning for cold and wintry weather. The easterly doesn’t even reach us. Gfs looks like from middle of next week we are back to heavy rain and strong winds. Let’s just hope Steve Murr is on the money with the models been too keen to bring in the Atlantic. But this morning isn’t great for the hunt for cold thread

[JoeShmoe]

6 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

The trouble is people are constantly looking too far ahead that’s why the disappointment, if you constantly look for stunning charts right in fi then the dates will just keep getting pushed back or it just changes as if it was never there, remember small changes early on end up been pretty big by the end of the run.

there will be some sort of cold next week before just maybe the proper cold beast just around xmas

you do see the irony in that post ?

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Me too Shaky..

A lot of talk about how the models underestimate blocks, from where im sitting they have underestimated our perennial nemesis, the Atlantic yet again.

Maybe Carol Kirkwood is looking at last nights EC because i can see precious little in the way of snow next week on any of the NWP this morning.

3 perhaps 4 days of colder dry weather..(And the way Dec is shaping up thats about as good as its going to get for a while as its back to wind and rain soonafter)..

Yes, disappointing outputs this morning.  It has been trending this way but a very decisive move this morning.  Probably need to wait for the 12z’s before finally calling it but it looks like next week’s cold spell is now just a cool dry blip before the Atlantic rushes back in.

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Well sorry to say with this morning outputs won't be much down here.

There wont be any here either ..

 

[booferking]

Well that was a surprise boy i hate Easterlies putting that aside best warming in the start yet hopefully it's Greenland highs we are seeing end if the Month cause phantoms don't really do it for us out West anyhow..

[mountain shadow]

16 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Yeah there’s no sugar coating this mornings output, the UKMO is okay but the ECM and GFS are awful for cold, the block barely becomes established before the Atlantic pushes through. 

Lets hope it’s just a wobble..

The ECM day 10 is loaded with potential with the PV vacating Greenland.

Also, the ECM is only a couple of hundred miles to North with the Atlantic from being decent.

 

[bluearmy]

Just looking back at the past four eps runs and the failure of heights across Greenland is the clear culprit ....probably more of an ingression of low heights from the vortex south across Greenland into the Atlantic trough - this was previously an area of no anomaly or even slightly high anomaly. the results are obvious - the ridge is unable to make enough latitude just east of Greenland, the Atlantic trough becomes even stronger and the rest is clear from the mornings runs. we need another run to set this change in place - the polar field is usually tough to get right for the models ........

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

There wont be any here either ..

 

Yep exactly.

might change but I doubt it.

Mind you they all seem to implode around 144 168 hrs.

This could be the start of the next wave of blocking perhaps maybe bit more vortex disruption.

Hopefully we can get a reversal or split.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

The ECM day 10 is loaded with potential with the PV vacating Greenland.

Also, the ECM is only a couple of hundred miles to North with the Atlantic from being decent.

 

I don't think it is loaded with potential MS..

Probably academic at day 10 but the azores high looks like its ready to ridge into Europe to me..

[blizzard81]

This easterly was never progged to be of the convective snow machine type. Most would have seen a couple of flakes at most. The only chance was for an undercut. For this reason I am not too bad fussed about any easterly fail. The only thing that bugs me though is that all the classic winters showed great propensity and appetite for retrogressing scandi highs, even early in the season. This one looks like rolling over like a b***c to the Atlantic. Not a great sign for the rest of the winter. 

[That ECM]

Seeing gfs output that has the Atlantic pilling through is never a good thing. It’s rarely correct but if the other models have the opposite we often end up in a halfway house. I love looking in fi and try to spot trends etc but t120 plus is fi for a reason.  Onwards and up. We are definitely one day nearer the next cold period, we’re just not sure when that will be.

[Chesil View]

54 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

remains more fluid than many would hope but that keeps things interesting - not for the first time, Exeter’s better update for coldies proved to be the ‘kiss of death’ for this particular easterly!  MOGREPS wasnt good for the easterly according to @essexweather so surprised that they issued what they did ....... maybe was a new run 

 ........looks like upstream could be weakening considerably and as kris pointed out, the polar developments meant an overpowering Atlantic jet push was v likely ....... the pattern is there - it’s just moved ene.  it could swing back a bit but it’s quite a way back to bring the majority of the uk into play on this one.

Quite so Blue. And this op could be at the very mildest end of the ens. The positive news even if the ECM came off as per this morning is that the lows are diving South East and essentially acting as trigger lows for a colder spell in the run up Xmas. If the ECM has overcooked the eastward progress of the Atlantic then it's game on for snow somewhere next week.  So pretty much win win .

[ICE COLD]

Yes very disappointed this morning . But at least it wasn’t a proper beast showing next week , would have been even more annoying. METO and BBC were even on board. Just proves that even with there super computers they can still get it wrong ( not a dig by the way ) . Oh well the signs our still very good moving forward. 

[MattStoke]

Firstly, next week is not a done deal yet (Is a week ahead ever a done deal?).

Secondly, was this ever expected to be a prolonged and significant cold spell? Everything has pointed to a brief chilly spell before milder conditions return but with greater potential for cold from around late December/early January onwards. That hasn’t changed.

[shaky]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Me too Shaky..

A lot of talk about how the models underestimate blocks, from where im sitting they have underestimated our perennial nemesis, the Atlantic yet again.

Maybe Carol Kirkwood is looking at last nights EC because i can see precious little in the way of snow next week on any of the NWP this morning.

3 perhaps 4 days of colder dry weather..(And the way Dec is shaping up thats about as good as its going to get for a while as its back to wind and rain soonafter)..

Its so depressing dude!!it all happens quite early on aswell around 96 120 hours with not as strong a ridge going into scandi!!why cant it be the other way around have upgrades at short notice instead!!hardly ever happens!!

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I don't think it is loaded with potential MS..

Probably academic at day 10 but the azores high looks like its ready to ridge into Europe to me..

Pressure is relatively low in the Azores on the day ECM 10 chart, the Azores High has gone West and is over the Western Atlantic about to push into Greenland ( I hope)

[Leon1]

Oh wow everybody. Stop writing off winter, people get too excited by charts and then write off winter whenever a few bad runs come along. We are looking at around t96 to t 120 again and the heights need to be in Greenland as well as near us, which helps make the low pressures smaller

Edited December 6, 2018 by Leon1

[northwestsnow]

Hold the press, EC mean is better than i thought it would be, perhaps we have a progressive EC det this morning?

[syed2878]

ok guys so  The outputs isn’t all that good this morning let’s wait till the 12 hours run before we panic and deliver a verdict  let us  enjoy  the roller coaster ride and adjourn this trial until the 12 hours run come out the way we are then 

Edited December 6, 2018 by syed2878
typing mistakes

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

you do see the irony in that post ?

Not just that post, there are a few posts turning up saying things like what should we expect? it was all out in FI blah blah blah, don't look too far ahead you will be disappointed. And then finish off  with something like the "the signs are promising further down the line", or "the beast will arrive Christmas" or "wait for the new year" yh like it's easier to forecast out at T500 with a crystal ball I guess. Quite funny really.

 

Anyway, I will just have to stick with the JMA from now on this winter, it never once went for the easterly scenario, the new super king model! But it's all still a long way off so you never know, could be game on again by the 12z, certainly still a decent chance of a undercut or more likely battleground scenario later next week.

[carinthian]

Morning all. Looks like all models in agreement at 144t, with possibly the UKMO the most robust to hold the block to the NE a bit longer. Although the promised Easterly has been unable to push enough westward this time , it looks like a 3rd attempt just before Christmas will have a bit more potency. During the medium range period ,days 7-10 , both GFS and ECM push the Atlantic trough well into the British Isles, however this could be a bit premature as I think the block to the NE will be exerting some disruptive forces against the Atlantic systems during this period. As always we will have to see but encouraging news in the longer term .

C

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Not just that post, there are a few posts turning up saying things like what should we expect? it was all out in FI blah blah blah, don't look too far ahead you will be disappointed. And then finish off  with something like the "the signs are promising further down the line", or "the beast will arrive Christmas" or "wait for the new year" yh like it's easier to forecast out at T500 with a crystal ball I guess. Quite funny really.

 

Anyway, I will just have to stick with the JMA from now on this winter, it never once went for the easterly scenario, the new super king model! But it's all still a long way off so you never know, could be game on again by the 12z, certainly still a decent chance of a undercut or more likely battleground scenario later next week.

Good post Ray, from my perspective i think this wind and rain is getting me down a bit so feel a bit jumpy i suppose..

Ive just posted about the EC mean and i have a feeling the det will be very progressive, lets see..

[Chesil View]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hold the press, EC mean is better than i thought it would be, perhaps we have a progressive EC det this morning?

Remember my post the other day about not jumping on the Op before the whole package has come out NWS. Always worth waiting to see where the middle ground lies. Of course the middle ground can be crap too. Lol