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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

216..

216.thumb.png.989691e9b5987b79d9b288c546db9823.png

 

I think Ireland and west Wales / Cornwall could find a slight breeze there.

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

216..

216.thumb.png.989691e9b5987b79d9b288c546db9823.png

 

Ive seen worse charts, still no raging PV in its normal winter home. wave attacks still on going and lets face it its the GFS and it does so love to blow up these atlantic lows as soon as it hits low res.

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not sure how we got there  but we are under a hurricane at 216h

Someone get Michael Fish in here! lol 

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Well however we got there, mystery or not, who was it earlier that said "look west"? 

 

gfsnh-0-252.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Nevermind the GFS(P) has frozen at 66. I think we may as well give up at this point..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Straight for the bin this one but does show nice rise of heights out west late on..

gfsnh-0-276.png

Because of  the scandy block 'forcing'..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Sorry but the pedant in me suggests we are not under a hurricane or ever going to be - the storm wasn't formed and maintained over SST's of 27c

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, tight isobar said:

Im honestly 'glad' i can brighten ya lights..

Whether good..or on a scarastic note

I will however 'EXPLAIN' my notion of vascular interp...as it may make oerfect sense..

 Once elaborated!!!..

It does 2 myself...and gas scope/decipher/sense.

I hold faith it will 2 the 'confused'... also

Lifes ..short...expressiin is of the upmost!! X

Thanks for clearing things up, I was a little confused before but now I think my brain has melted into a puddle. 

GFS 18z is one for the bin for the same reasons the 6z was one for the bin, dartboard lows like that never verify. Models still struggling to resolve the energy SE in the mid-term. 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Im honestly 'glad' i can brighten ya lights..

Whether good..or on a scarastic note

I will however 'EXPLAIN' my notion of vascular interp...as it may make oerfect sense..

Once elaborated!!!..

It does 2 myself...and gas scope/decipher/sense.

I hold faith it will 2 the 'confused'... also

Lifes ..short...expressiin is of the upmost!! X

I haven’t got a clue on what you are on about but whatever it is, I absolutely love it!!

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Well however we got there, mystery or not, who was it earlier that said "look west"? 

 

gfsnh-0-252.png

Me! Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Sorry but the pedant in me suggests we are not under a hurricane or ever going to be - the storm wasn't formed and maintained over SST's of 27c

Pretty sure comments are tongue in cheek and mocking the way the GFS loves to blow up these lows in a way that almost never verifies.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Im honestly 'glad' i can brighten ya lights..

Whether good..or on a scarastic note

I will however 'EXPLAIN' my notion of vascular interp...as it may make perfect sense..

Once elaborated!!!..

It does 2 myself...and gas scope/decipher/sense.

I hold faith it will 2 the 'confused'... also

Lifes ..short...expression is of the upmost!! X

You sir are a genius

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Last month the eps turned out to be correct in predicting the return of the Atlantic despite many feeeling the blocking would hold - but it had support of the op (bar one run). The 12z is the first op which has blasted the Atlantic through and there was a decent size cluster reflecting the previous ops. So tomorrow mornings ec op is of significance to me. A repeat of the back end of the noon op run and the ec mean and spread  will confirm the strong likelihood that we will see a fairly swift demise of this scandi ridge but it’s likely to be a brief respite from cold. 

It remains more than feasible that the 00z op could revert to a more undercutting look  

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Again finishes with strat warming over Asia. Doesn't seem to be bringing this forward much. Perhaps its picking up on the warming that GP has been posting about but has been progging it too early, hence it pushes it back with each run (for now).

gfsnh-10-384.png

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49 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Im honestly 'glad' i can brighten ya lights..

Whether good..or on a scarastic note

I will however 'EXPLAIN' my notion of vascular interp...as it may make perfect sense..

Once elaborated!!!..

It does 2 myself...and gas scope/decipher/sense.

I hold faith it will 2 the 'confused'... also

Lifes ..short...expression is of the upmost!! X

I couldnt have said it any better than this.

Edited by Guest
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Again finishes with strat warming over Asia. Doesn't seem to be bringing this forward much. Perhaps its picking up on the warming that GP has been posting about but has been progging it too early, hence it pushes it back with each run (for now).

gfsnh-10-384.png

That warming has massively downgraded - it was really looking good on the runs yeasterday.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Im honestly 'glad' i can brighten ya lights..

Whether good..or on a scarastic note

I will however 'EXPLAIN' my notion of vascular interp...as it may make perfect sense..

Once elaborated!!!..

It does 2 myself...and gas scope/decipher/sense.

I hold faith it will 2 the 'confused'... also

Lifes ..short...expression is of the upmost!! X

Honestly Tight  its like you are compiling a new quatrains   you arent realted to the bloke who wrote this are you?.  i swear folk will look back in years to come  and say you predicted the great blizzard of 2166

"Pau, Nay, Loron, more fire than blood, 

Swimming in praise, the great man hurries to the confluence. 

He will refuse entry to the magpies, 

Pampon and Durrance will confine them. "

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That warming has massively downgraded - it was really looking good on the runs yeasterday.

Well, GP reckons there will be major warming around the 26th of December. It will be interesting to see in 5 days time and onwards whether the GFS sticks with this for in or around the 26th. Being that in 5 days time the GFS will be running out to the 26th. I've yet to see GP being anything other than spot on!

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
13 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Im honestly 'glad' i can brighten ya lights..

Whether good..or on a scarastic note

I will however 'EXPLAIN' my notion of vascular interp...as it may make perfect sense..

Once elaborated!!!..

It does 2 myself...and gas scope/decipher/sense.

I hold faith it will 2 the 'confused'... also

Lifes ..short...expression is of the upmost!! X

I have a great avatar for yourself you should use it..

Riddler_(DC_Animated_Universe).jpg

Edited by booferking
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I have no idea what's going on with the models tonight as some weather apps are struggling, they're all over the place next week, some suggesting temperatures here in South Wales will be 6C rising to 14C and dropping back to 4C in just 3 hours, wind gusts over 3 hours 50-12-65mph, pressure 1010-955-1000mb what the hell?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Well, GP reckons there will be major warming around the 26th of December. It will be interesting to see in 5 days time and onwards whether the GFS sticks with this for in or around the 26th. Being that in 5 days time the GFS will be running out to the 26th.

This is in no way any disrespect as worship i GP, but in my mere mortal, humble opinion, thats a bit too soon, yes its model related and i am going on what the models tend to do prior to SSW's rather than the in depth teleconnection knowledge of GP, but i can't see it until the turn of the year, of course it might not happen at all but obviously hope it does.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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