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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

gfsnh-10-384.png

 

Exactly 1 year ago, same time frame 

The big difference being is this year's Strat is 'much' warmer..

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Just now, Polar Maritime said:

The only difference being is this year's Strat is much warmer..

Last year and the year before and the year before (and maybe before that) it showed much bigger warmings at various runs. I didn't cherry pick one, I just took the same run from one year ago. Take these gfs strat forecasts with a pinch of salt 

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18 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Last year and the year before and the year before (and maybe before that) it showed much bigger warmings at various runs. I didn't cherry pick one, I just took the same run from one year ago. Take these gfs strat forecasts with a pinch of salt 

It's ok you can't damping are spirits we are full steam ahead now on the gravy train.?

Edited by booferking
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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Strat aside EC looking good at 144.. ?

'Up she goes'..

Cmon northwest snow give me that boom 168 hour chart update!am waiting lol!!ukmo coming on board is a massive moment this morning!!

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1 hour ago, snowangel32 said:

Thanks Feb1991, Crewecold you guys truly are very knowlegeable.

So the UKMO backs down and joins the winter party and gfs is solid as a rock. great start to the day and its starting to get into the semi reliable now.  ?

The ukmo never goes as far as the other models so how has it joined the party late exactly.

Its t144 output yesterday evening was not much different from the other models to begin with,amazing how people hang off one model run ,if it shows anything a tiny bit different ?

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9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Cmon northwest snow give me that boom 168 hour chart update!am waiting lol!!ukmo coming on board is a massive moment this morning!!

Boooooooom.....

EC looks very good up to now..192 hours...:cold:?

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Ec op variations on a theme post day 7 so tough to work out if the op is leading us down the correct route or messing about with solutions and we should be following the spreads or clusters - up to this point the op has been the one to follow .......

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Boooooooom.....

EC looks very good up to now..192 hours...?

Any pics mate!!thought the high was ever so slightly further south than i would want on the 168 hour chart!!gota go for a run now?

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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

colder air just about in by 192, but to me looks no different to the E'ly in Nov, still FI though as far as uppers go

ECM0-192.GIF?05-12

 

Yes, but it will certainly feel more seasonal. Although not cold enough for widespread lowland snow. wintery showers, yes. 

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Just now, shetland islands said:

Yes, but it will certainly feel more seasonal. Although not cold enough for widespread lowland snow. wintery showers, yes. 

Think the problem will be whether there are any showers not how wintry they are.

The uppers did upgrade in November though as we got closer to the event. Hopefully that will be the case this time and the -6/7 becomes more like -9/10.

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Think the problem will be whether there are any showers not how wintry they are.

The uppers did upgrade in November though as we got closer to the event. Hopefully that will be the case this time and the -6/7 becomes more like -9/10.

-6 okay if Atlantic system bumps into the cold air, with winds on SE angle, but showers just wintry, rather than proper snow

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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any pics mate!!thought the high was ever so slightly further south than i would want on the 168 hour chart!!gota go for a run now?

Are you a runner shaky? It was -16 when I set off for my 8k run in the forest on Saturday. Much warmer now. Here is the ECM from 192 onwards, but focussing on the relatively reliable out to 144 I think it looks good. UKMO on board at this range too is a real plus and should soothe some worries. 

tempresult_ymh4.gif

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30 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

colder air just about in by 192, but to me looks no different to the E'ly in Nov, still FI though as far as uppers go

ECM0-192.GIF?05-12

 

Nope, the dew points are MUCH lower- sub zero from day 8 as we see the continental air kick in..

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9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I was wondering why we had no commentary on the latter stages of ECM 

Reality is the uppers are not cold enough and they evaporate after about 36 hours

But the reality is it will bring cold conditions, regardless of the temperature 1500m up. Nobody was realistically predicting widespread, long lasting snow. 

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Funnily enough JS you might be well placed as the lows come in..

?

ps i just read my post again and im sorry if i came across the wrong way, it wasn't intended to be rude or arrogant..

Edited by northwestsnow
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