The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[January Snowstorm]

You would have to say the uppers are a tad under whelming when you consider we have a full blown Easterly showing. The one we got a month ago was actually colder. It isn't cold enough to deliver anything other than very high ground sleet/snow.

Of course the bigger long term picture is great and seeing GP post more often is a very welcome bonus for all of us!

 

[Allseasons-Si]

No disrespect to you @More Snow as i would love to live in the location where you are now,very beautiful is bonny wee Scotland

the uppers(850's temps) are a crucial numerical as to getting cold and snow to the uk as is the dewpoints/dam/wetbulb etc fall into place but a continental feed would be a lower margine for error off a dryer/colder continent if the near continent has cooled of which it will be after the weekend

there is nothing wrong with posting archived charts that are similar to what is being forecasted to try and understand the patterns of past winter weather events and get a match of what may happen in the near future

best x

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

No disrespect to you @More Snow as i would love to live in the location where you are now,very beautiful is bonny wee Scotland

the uppers(850's temps) are a crucial numerical as to getting cold and snow to the uk as is the dewpoints/dam/wetbulb etc fall into place but a continental feed would be a lower margine for error off a dryer/colder continent if the near continent has cooled of which it will be after the weekend

there is nothing wrong with posting archived charts that are similar to what is being forecasted to try and understand the patterns of past winter weather events and get a match of what may happen in the near future

best x

 

 

 

 

Wasnt aimed at you @Allseasons-si as i understand the importance of uppers etc, just wondering why my post was singled out amongst many others that were just as off topic as mine. 

[shaky]

Any news on icon 18z!!any better at 120 hours

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

You would have to say the uppers are a tad under whelming when you consider we have a full blown Easterly showing. The one we got a month ago was actually colder. It isn't cold enough to deliver anything other than very high ground sleet/snow.

Of course the bigger long term picture is great and seeing GP post more often is a very welcome bonus for all of us!

 

You’re mistaken at the ‘peak’ 850hPa temps were between -4 to -6c there was no long easterly fetch, and continent was not that cold. Yet parts of elevated SE England still had a little snow next week much better..

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any news on icon 18z!!any better at 120 hours

Not to 120 but 93 is of no difference.

[Guest]

Anyways pub run is up and will it keep us cold hunters happy? im sure there is going to be some ups and downs as we head toward this cold spell/period as its not the normal winter way for the UK so of course models are going to struggle so the odd poor run must be expected.

[jules216]

38 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Overall, extended modelling seems a little progressive on the shift west of the main high-latitude blocking focus; west-based negative NAO setup arriving a bit soon with too little of an east-based negative NAO interlude beforehand.

As and when we do see the west-based negative NAO it'll be hard to hang onto cold conditions but not out of the question should we see enough of a displacement of the stratospheric vortex toward Siberia; that could feasibly allow blocking to reach further east than usual for a situation where the blocking is focused over the NE of N. America.

Not worth getting too involved with at this time of course; let's hope we can first get a good bout of cold air in during the middle of the month.

It would be intriguing to follow the tendency of this blocking anomaly which has a reasonable chance to advect somewhere in the Arctic.

Interestingly some of the similar strat warmings with vortex displacement events towards Scandinavia occured in around early 2004 and 2006. 

Subsequent height anomalies for JAN-FEB period had an east based -NAO.

It wouldn´t make much sence to me to achieve west based -NAO after such a strong Scandi high anomaly before we get a shot at east based -NAO.

But with sometimes stochastic nature of atmosphere stranger things happened

 

Edited December 4, 2018 by jules216

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Not to 120 but 93 is of no difference.

Yep it's better not as much energy and lows getting held further west.. 

[tight isobar]

Anyway..bk 2 the here...and now -MODEL DISCUSS..(HUNT 4 COLD)..-we have hunted and found!!!!

The 18z gfs-..is again decent early-params..

As we get 3-spinners that..will aid invigor..

Oh dear..its a crying shambolic set of suites...if your looking 4 a march-forward of mild weather.

 

Edit..

And as the gain catches momentum..

Its obliteration for the doorway of mild zonality.

Terrible life...is'nt it?!!!

Edited December 4, 2018 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

Pretty much as you were on the 18z so far up to 132.

[ICE COLD]

Is anyone finding the GFS 18z is coming out very slow ? I’m only out to T99 . All looks good tho . 

[tight isobar]

We elongate...and stretch..

As we gain..

And as the ec 12z..

The shunt is notable..

Real synops of a ready to go into the assylum...trop/strat pv..all layers corrupted!!

Its distrupt on every level...*no -pun intended*

(Minor- factions@north aff/souther ib!!

Edited December 4, 2018 by tight isobar

[GeordieX9v]

Much shallower low this time around

[blizzard81]

120hr fax for Sunday 

[Mike Poole]

So where are we just before the pub run?  I think slightly increased confidence that the Scandi high will be the next significant evolution. My interest at the moment is firmly focused on the strat, a SSW on or around 20 Dec could have such a significant impact on the rest of winter, so early...I will be watching the strat charts.

Anyway the pub run. Rock solid at T162 on building the block...

[Mapantz]

Just now, evans1892 said:

Much shallower low this time around

Perhaps a chart or two to illustrate this.. are you referring to the LP to the Southwest of the UK at T+00? 

[tight isobar]

iso's

And forms...

i'll say no more..

Edited December 4, 2018 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Perhaps a chart or two to illustrate this.. are you referring to the LP to the Southwest of the UK at T+00? 

He means the monster low that was on the 12z to our west 

[Allseasons-Si]

Much better verticle angle to the WAA into Greenland at 168 than the 174 12z.

of which produces a FV3 style evolution at 192

lovely.

 

Edited December 4, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

Wowsers, this at just T180 on the pub run,

that block got into perfect alignment a bit quick, scary!

[weirpig]

Lovely looking charts  it seems on this run the undercut may be just to the north of morroco  much shallower low 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

He means the monster low that was on the 12z to our west 

I knew that blue

I was just making it known that a lurker viewing that might not have any idea what low it might be.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So where are we just before the pub run?  I think slightly increased confidence that the Scandi high will be the next significant evolution. My interest at the moment is firmly focused on the strat, a SSW on or around 20 Dec could have such a significant impact on the rest of winter, so early...I will be watching the strat charts.

Anyway the pub run. Rock solid at T162 on building the block...

 

I think an SSW would be a bit later than that if it does happen but its certainly possible before months end.

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z going for the FV3 big style,no regrets from me

good night.