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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Prefer this run as low pressure develops further east into the Med and uppers look slightly colder on this 06z run...just hope it doesn't break down in time for Xmas, history tells us it generally does.

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LP will end up over Italy, brilliant stuff, can the high move towards Greenland now for phase 2?

gfs-0-240.png

Edited by snowray

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Around about the same time last year  we had a slider scenario   gave a foot of snow around here.  Very nice 6z   however  its the gfs  i just cant put any faith in it.   imo  obviously 

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5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Around about the same time last year  we had a slider scenario   gave a foot of snow around here.  Very nice 6z   however  its the gfs  i just cant put any faith in it.   imo  obviously 

Sunday 10th December 2017 that was. It'll be a whole year since then next Monday. Great event would love a repeat.

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Who needs a Scandy high??

Long live the Grice - land high!!

Truly remarkable 6Z, perhaps unlikely but certainly an option on the table, protracted period of High pressure to our north in Mid Dec?

Pretty darn cold persisting and probably intensifying ..

Given the impending Strat warming and potential zonal wind reversal at high latitudes, there remains the chance that once the heights build to the North that they won't be in a hurry to slip South anytime soon.

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I would suggest 6Z would produce some snow for elevated parts of Scotland, and any snowcover will maintain for a good week thereafter..

Hope to see some pictures from the lucky ones- it will be lovely and festive..

As it will for much of the UK, without the snowcover ..

Edited by northwestsnow

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And, following a possible week of cold weather, the 06Z ends with this:

Netweather GFS Image

And that UK-bound LP isn't part of a train...?

Edited by Ed Stone
06Z even!

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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Who needs a Scandy high??

Long live the Grice - land high!!

Truly remarkable 6Z, perhaps unlikely but certainly an option on the table, protracted period of High pressure to our north in Mid Dec?

Pretty darn cold persisting and probably intensifying ..

But it shows Atlantic back with wind and rain later on ? 

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13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Around about the same time last year  we had a slider scenario   gave a foot of snow around here.  Very nice 6z   however  its the gfs  i just cant put any faith in it.   imo  obviously 

Yh wierpig we did quite well last year although it didnt last to long on the ground. But for the Midlands Sliders and Battlegrounds are the way to go. Its rare we get anything substantial from a straight Easterly so i hope from an imby point of view the high migrates to Greenland. But still to far out to nail any details.

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6Z is also another great run in the strat..

Absolutely consistent of warmings NE and NW ...

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2 minutes ago, Spanish Dani said:

But it shows Atlantic back with wind and rain later on ? 

Your not really homing on charts at 324+ hours ?

The run has below average temps for literally 10 days prior to that and plenty of cold frosty weather..

Edited by northwestsnow

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1 hour ago, Stormyking said:

Very interesting charts again this Morning, ECM sticking with its idea, UKMO looks like it would be very decent if there were any runs after 144 and the GFS also looking very nice for the cold and Scandi high potential!

Hopefully the 6z can continue 😄 

1

We have UKMO at t168. It doesn't go any further though for public viewing

ukm2.2018121100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.dc7d5f49c214b7ad8c35cf7bd0f61008.png

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So the charts are flip flopping at 5 day range wich is crucial to where the high ends up and will obviously have ramifications later down the line. But instead you take that and skip 10 days ahead and say the Atlantic is coming bk as if its gospel. Hmmm. Spanish Dani wants the heat lol

Edited by snowangel32

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

We have UKMO at t168. It doesn't go any further though for public viewing

ukm2.2018121100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.dc7d5f49c214b7ad8c35cf7bd0f61008.png

Oh cool thankyou for that 🙂 I literally had no idea about that 

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40 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Sunday 10th December 2017 that was. It'll be a whole year since then next Monday. Great event would love a repeat.

That was a day!! We didn't get much snow on the coast of south Wales but we did see severe gales for an hour in the morning as a low zipped through with temps rising up to about 9C, however just an hour later the winds eased and temperatures fell back to 3C!! Never seen anything like it, it was crazy 😮

this chart shows the Mumbles weather station recordings for that day (nr Swansea) and the low which brought the fun and games to many in one way or another 

image.jpeg

image.png

Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

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gens-19-1-216.png

If had to pick one ensemble to show it would be this one.

By 180 hours 5 ensemble fail to get the high in place, the rest get it there with varying degrees of success.

 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Given those final charts from Stewart I may as well post the weatherbell anomaly chart for DJF as it fits pretty well

this has been consistent from them since September 

68A6157A-A1C6-4AB9-A9D1-447AE080DDA0.thumb.jpeg.36ca8affa6dcbfa7ba9dabaa1b1fc88d.jpeg

That is so pleasing to the eye!!

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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gens-19-1-216.png

If had to pick one ensemble to show it would be this one.

By 180 hours 5 ensemble fail to get the high in place, the rest get it there with varying degrees of success.

 

Yes, that member goes on to give a right ol tonking!

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