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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

All details that are un-important at this range, though.. given 6hrs ago it was showing a Westerly zonal flow I don't think we should be getting hung up on the 850hPa temps at over 200hrs away..

True but i always look at the GEFS for that and as i always bang the drum (i know it bores some people) but i have never seen a suite where most of the GEFS are around or above -6c at 192 suddenly all collapse at around the 144 range so it is important.

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Lovely lovely dreamy charts from Tonight's GFS, currently the best run i've seen so far on this roller coaster, still a way out but its nice to see the models trying to come on board with one another 😄 

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, the feed of really cold uppers has already been cut off now though so although its an absolute stonker synoptically, we are reliant on the uppers to cool further in situ just on the near continent.

Minimum solar input should help

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probably doesn't matter at that range re 850s but highly marginal. It reminds me a bit of Feb 08 (think it was that year) where synoptically it looked great but delivered a wintry mix rather than snow for many away from high ground. That said, lets get the easterly first and worry about detail later. In reality I reckon it would be a tad colder if that came to pass given time of year etc. Definitely a big step in the right direction though.

Edit: theta values between 10-14 so again marginal albeit only of limited interest that far away. 

 

Edited by Jason M

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I've seen some good charts recently but this one holds the crown for me.

Sorry to post precip charts I know there not cast iron

But snow showers packing in eastern UK and the South.

18121206_0318.gif

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Looks like agreement is growing on a Scandinavian high of sorts early next week. Well done to GP who was first out of the blocks in predicting this!!

Is it cold enough though? We could do with deeper cold than what the 18z is showing

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yeah you don’t see extremely cold weather from the East in Dec if you look back in the archives ,but certainly be cold enough for snow if it persist long enough.Think we will see repeated bout of Easterlies this winter .

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What a chart that is globally,just think for a second if that came off!

gfsnh-0-216.thumb.png.13c2584ee7829c7c9e51518ba749f8f0.png

great chart viewing at the moment and i am glad to take part in this party

ok the uppers are not that cold but it's the trends i am seeing consistantly that keep on churning out.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

probably doesn't matter at that range re 850s but highly marginal. It reminds me a bit of Feb 08 (think it was that year) where synoptically it looked great but delivered a wintry mix rather than snow for many away from high ground. That said, lets get the easterly first and worry about detail later. In reality I reckon it would be a tad colder if that came to pass given time of year etc. Definitely a big step in the right direction though.

Do you not mean February 2005?

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Could see as early as 120 it was going to be good-

We are fast approaching a reliable timeframe now for a decent little easterly ,in December..

Lovely.

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3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Looks like agreement is growing on a Scandinavian high of sorts early next week. Well done to GP who was first out of the blocks in predicting this!!

Is it cold enough though? We could do with deeper cold than what the 18z is showing

Probably just cold enough with the winds from the east, if it carries on like this though that will become a concern of the past very quickly, as the long draw takes hold, pub run T240:

image.thumb.jpg.e7aab7b6c6959f35419b9b58c7d3c235.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a6428904d65cbb4d6d090dc635aa1d4f.jpg

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Do you not mean February 2005?

probably 👍

Of course in Feb the solar input is against us. Anyway, it will have changed again in a few hours.

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Almighty pennine blizzard at 288 from a selfish point of view.

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Here's our nationwide blizzard at T288!😍

gfseu-0-288.png

gfs-1-288.png

gfseu-2-288.png

Edited by snowray

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11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Minimum solar input should help

I think that is a crucial point actually- the days don't come much shorter than mid December..

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Almighty pennine blizzard at 288 from a selfish point of view.

Not before it passes over me first😘

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The reason the 850 temps are not great is because the initial artic incursion goes straight down the north sea instead of down through Scandinavia. This is quite wasteful. We need similar synoptics but that initial incursion to occur further east...

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Almighty pennine blizzard at 288 from a selfish point of view.

Looks like the last cool spell previous,i see a re-occuring theme there,hopefully with better uppers.

gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.1c8b0c0e436f916e1252dd1982a976e8.png

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Just now, The Eagle said:

The reason the 850 temps are not great is because the initial artic incursion goes straight down the north sea instead of down through Scandinavia. This is quite wasteful. We need similar synoptics but that initial incursion to occur further east...

Problem with that is you then run the risk of no cold uppers reaching us!

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Pity far SE missing out as slightly milder air moves in, but most of the UK with decent snow cover just 10 days before Christmas.:snowman-emoji::reindeer-emoji::ball-santa-emoji:

gfs-16-288.png

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