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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

At least the evening finishes on a brighter note . Regardless of what the GFS does in its later output it’s key to get a better earlier timeframe .

The troughing to the west is not the ghastly flat mess of its 12 hrs run . It’s cleaner and more amplified .

So the drama continues tomorrow morning !

Yes, although it might be a good FI in any case yet.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Excellent 150 on the GFS - all the spoiler lows have gone that were there on the 12z - its a clean evolution.

gfsnh-0-150_ghe6.png

Spot on Feb - and the 168 is looking excellent although the uppers to the east look slightly higher than expected.  Broad-scale though, this looks great!

gfsnh-0-168.png?18  gfsnh-1-168.png?18

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, although it might be a good FI in any case yet.

I put that in just in case the GFS went awol in its later output ! 😀

So far so good and much better upstream .

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Looking so much better at T171 on the 18z . Get in there my son . 

DBF9D6DC-06DF-4B44-A360-7AE02A7A7213.png

627881BA-9976-41DE-BAAB-6F80DC8CD3A7.png

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The gfs slowly coming aboard the ecm train at 168 if not better(as in less toppler) with sharper ridge into Greenland.

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.8e50976f0be3cf9d8dfa315b2cf45859.pngECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.a77a3e7c1202e54397ead12f8b57ad50.png

 

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You didn't seriously think the pub run would let us down did you? 🙂

gfsnh-0-186.png

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Really going all in now, T168:

image.thumb.jpg.242fc058db1c57b0cfd7814a84359344.jpg

I think we can say GFS has joined the party!

Praise be the Lord!!!😅

We have full agreement for once, and Met Office, BBC on board too.

Snow showers moving from the east there.

gfs-0-186.png

gfs-1-186.png

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Stonking chart!

683771624_18zNE.thumb.png.46d1423ab5e970ef6d020f6c88bda8dd.png

Welcome to the party old timer..

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Energy splitting to the west Amen! 

We’re getting there but don’t book the mariachi band just yet . We’ve seen between outputs a lot of chopping and changing .

We need at least another day and solid agreement .

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

It already is

Yes, the feed of really cold uppers has already been cut off now though so although its an absolute stonker synoptically, we are reliant on the uppers to cool further in situ just on the near continent.

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Pub runT192

image.thumb.jpg.6acb0b6ccf148ca06a4051fb874588b1.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d21d271cf7b8f9f58fdf5e9aa1740082.jpg

uppers could be colder I guess but it's the overall pattern that counts, superbly aligned to bring the cold in.

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Spot the difference at T192, uppers could do with being a bit colder though, am I being too fussy?:blink2:

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-198.png

gfs-1-192.png

gfs-1-198.png

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, the feed of really cold uppers has already been cut off now though so although its an absolute stonker synoptically, we are reliant on the uppers to cool further in situ just on the near continent.

All details that are un-important at this range, though.. given 6hrs ago it was showing a Westerly zonal flow I don't think we should be getting hung up on the 850hPa temps at over 200hrs away..

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This is one of those rare runs where every frame is worth posting....  198 is surely close to a 'Boom'

gfsnh-0-198.png?18

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GFS late to the party again .Finally it works out what’s going on.Bbc eggs on their face with monthly forecast from Sat too.

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The synoptics are stunning today/this evening,the 850's will follow nearer the time.

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