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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Looking forward to the ec46 later,will it play ball?

what time does it come out again?

Think it’s 22:05 . But BA will correct me if it’s not , that’s if he’s not asleep 😴😉

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Think it’s 22:05 . But BA will correct me if it’s not , that’s if he’s not asleep 😴😉

That’s about right ...wonder if we will see any consequences of events in the strat later in the ec46 run ........

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I would prefer to have all of the big three on board for cold snow but if I could only have two of the three then it would the ECM and UK met everyone. Maybe the GFS para will change my mind when it comes on line.

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JMA isn't following the script yet it manages to go from a northerly to southwesterly in the space of 24hrs 

JN144-21.thumb.gif.bf3207e40da15011c3de183e2ef44963.gifJN168-21.thumb.gif.45b80b42dbc1a2e0c7741492961f3aca.gifJN192-21.thumb.gif.d6078e9fb0daaa5c59efa19e7036f297.gif

 

J144-7.thumb.gif.5b49f9bb25d4f9c75bf53bd2aae51ff2.gifJ168-7.thumb.gif.e9d0e565474595bec0a260f1e1ad4e8b.gifJ192-7.thumb.gif.b6e8952d2db1a5c5b32f398324cd154b.gif

Edited by Summer Sun

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I know its the chase for cold but before the potential Easterly Friday looks like we could get battered one to watch.

gfs-0-84.png

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4 minutes ago, booferking said:

I know its the chase for cold but before the potential Easterly Friday looks like we could get battered one to watch.

gfs-0-84.png

That mini low looks more like a mini hurricane leaving the states lol!!

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EC46 reasonable.

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120300_504.thumb.png.ff4ac49f4c460f242a02efd97cde7c55.png

Edited by Mapantz
Corrected to show image

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 reasonable.

Spákort gert á VÃ

Thats good to hear Feb-

At least it sounds like its not a disaster- 

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 reasonable.

Spákort gert á VÃ

Weeks 1,2,3 and 4,not a bad set.

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120300_168.thumb.png.4f4b8572245c6b159065344bfed19b19.pngec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120300_336.thumb.png.820863a3a37fde3569a28f442bb64d7e.pngec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120300_504.thumb.png.82285d9bd319fb6f4583729d4fff38e0.pngec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120300_672.thumb.png.0a5c735e095de51053a1f7605336ea0c.png

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looking better at 120-

Indeed 🙂

gfsnh-0-120.png

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Weeks 1,2,3 and 4,not a bad set.

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120300_168.thumb.png.4f4b8572245c6b159065344bfed19b19.pngec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120300_336.thumb.png.820863a3a37fde3569a28f442bb64d7e.pngec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120300_504.thumb.png.82285d9bd319fb6f4583729d4fff38e0.pngec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120300_672.thumb.png.0a5c735e095de51053a1f7605336ea0c.png

Let's just pretend week 4 isn't there lol. 

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats good to hear Feb-

At least it sounds like its not a disaster- 

I take it you can see the chart - basically in an ideal world you would want the low anomaly that is to the West further South East and stronger and the +ve anom over scandi closer to Iceland.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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138hrs 18z GFS vs 144 UKMO.  Better from the GFS

gfsnh-0-138.png?18  Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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EE2F2E1D-C085-4E87-8D18-D8DA662BF25B.thumb.png.95fb571c5d7adcc15c9b1e5c313ae3b3.png

Better wedge of pressure up towards East Greenland at 132hrs on the 18z. 

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I take it you can see the chart - basically in an ideal world you would want the low anomaly that is to the West further South East and stronger and the _ve anom over scandi closer to Iceland.

There is time for that sort of amendment to happen. 

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4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Let's just pretend week 4 isn't there lol. 

Would you look that far out !,i certainly won't but weeks 1,2 and...i stop there,in the med range it's looking good.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

There is time for that sort of amendment to happen. 

There is indeed - in fact i think its very decent actually, on reflection its better than i initially gave it credit for.

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GFS 18z here at T144.  Looks very much like it has turned it's back on the 12z solution, more amplified, but not as strong at this point as the UKMO, I should point out.

image.thumb.jpg.801d52d9a134b9118c720bc2671b95dd.jpg

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Noted northerly...and with the cell eye..and northern extention of sway...we-are aligned for THE WRAP-..18z look like aligning....coming on board...

gfs-0-138.png

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Would you look that farout !,i certainly won't but weeks 1,2 and...i stop there,in the med range it's looking good.

Absolutely. Would rather have it that way round as opposed to the the other way which is what we have become accustomed to over the last few years. 

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This is a lot cleaner from the gfs,trough digging further south out of Newfoundland,no spoiler lows,this is going to be.....

 

gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.67a042006e2cd1cbb397409fa5de73fd.png

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