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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure about that shaky..

UKMO/EC were both very nice this morning..

Yup forgot to add that this mornings runs seem to have broken that trend but its been happening a lot recently!maybe a data issue!!

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21 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Tim, have a look at summers graph, nothing is an outlier post the 9th, anything possible.

Sorry Stuie but if it lies outside of the envelope of ensembles then is an ‘outlier’ , doesn’t mean it’s definitely wrong as the op is at the highest resolution 

CF549108-F092-4DC5-9104-792DB50EC0DC.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks to have the low in the Atlantic a bit closer to the UK and Ireland than ECM 

UKMO                                                               ECM

ukm2.2018121012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6f08ef957f2429b67c3c3495b60e9bfb.pngecm2.2018121012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.390b54304286520765b0f54eb5a2ea9b.png

Let me try and get this right, I prefer the UKMO`s Low as it is elongated, heading NE and would not plough through any ridge.

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Sorry Stuie but if it lies outside of the envelope of ensembles then is an ‘outlier’ , doesn’t mean it’s definitely wrong as the op is at the highest resolution 

CF549108-F092-4DC5-9104-792DB50EC0DC.jpeg

No need to apologise mate, overlooked, nice zooming.

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1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

I’d be interested in that day 10 ECM chart. Straight Easterlies don’t bring snow to West Lancashire generally.

It’s fun watching the chaos elsewhere but we only got a light dusting in March. 

A battleground scenario however would get me polishing the bulb in the back garden spotlight. 👍

And 20miles to your east in the foothills of the penines it was waste deep in drifts...granted i have 600ft altitude to help but location wise my best wind direction is east or north east winds..

Onto UKMO, i actually prefer the ukmo 168, it suggests to me a lot of energy going into the southern arm..

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Wish these model outputs would stop flirting with us... 

 

ECMWF looking promising though!

Edited by BlazeStorm

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37 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

It’s 9 days away. 

Pretty to look at but the timeframe to moan at. 

Bring it within 4 days then your post has some legs. 

Well I'll give you a hint about my post. It starts with a j, ends with an e and has an ok in the middle. But I'm assuming you knew that and you're being ironic. ;)

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7 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Yes just seen bbc weather outlook going for Easterly winds it’s getting very interesting .😁

OMG, really? Game on big time then!:yahoo:

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very happy with EC mean tonight...

And happier still Darren Brett is ramping up a big scandy anti cyclone next week..

I've just spat my strong Dutch lager out 

Darren Betts has said what the biggest mild

Ramper in history.😂

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2 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

I’m ready to jump down off the fence and hopefully Bluearmy will be joining me!

I’m 60/40 deep cold into the UK next week. High pressure will build this weekend turning things colder, good support for high pressure to extend and build across Scandinavia thereafter. 

Lots to resolve before deep cold touches our shores, but we’re a step closer this evening. Fantastic day 8 GEFS mean. 

927223EA-B081-42A5-84E6-44189B9573F3.thumb.png.a9c3bfc56a6ae7c029a36b11761b8291.png

 

I'm willing to agree on your comment "High pressure will build this weekend turning things colder, good support for high pressure to extend and build across Scandinavia thereafter." As I mentioned last Monday, there was a growing consensus even then, that between the inter/intra-model runs, the GFS, in particular, wanted to bring in HP dominance around December 6th through to 10th or thereabouts. As for deep cold, we need the ECM D9 and D10 charts showing such scenarios to be there at D4 or D5 in my experience, which means by the end of this working week, we will KNOW whether SNOW is something worth shouting about, for the run-up to the middle of December. Winter proper appears to be lurking close-by.

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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13 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

And either way, absolutely stunning prospects later on. If the vortex thinks its struggling now, it has a nasty surprise coming its way in the next few weeks. We would have to consider ourselves very unlucky if we haven't had a good cold spell by the end of January

 

And this is the important point, even if the next 7-10 days doesn't deliver what we're all after, the vortex is so distressed the window of opportunity is wider than usual.  We often require a couple of bites of the cherry to get the 'proper' cold in for the UK and this could be one of those times, however, I'm very confident that we're going to see something significant by early January.  Time will tell of course!

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Hope 18z smells the scandy flavoured coffee..

Feel much more confident with the been going for it.

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56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very happy with EC mean tonight...

And happier still Darren Brett is ramping up a big scandy anti cyclone next week..

Yeah..

A few days ago the BBC monthly was going for mild Westerlies all the way through, goes to show just how little attention BBC forecasts are worth now they’ve ditched the Met.

I’m hoping to see a backtrack on the GFS 18z tonight..

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56 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean @ T+240 hours, it certainly ain't mild!!..let's hope the power of positive thinking can darken those shades of blue on subsequent runs!..nobody will be more delighted than me if we can get some entrenched cold..and hopefully SNOW in the run up to christmas!:santa-emoji::cold-emoji:❄️:reindeer-emoji:

EDM0-240.GIF

Welcome back Frosty.!!!!!, models except GFS looking good, often happens though

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Looking forward to the ec46 later,will it play ball?

what time does it come out again?

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