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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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-8 850's over large parts of the UK and -9s moving in from the east whilst the Atlantic tries to nudge in which screams the potential for battleground / frontal snowfalls to me and still some snow showers coming from the E probably (does anybody have a link to the ECM precip charts, thought I had it bookmarked but must have lost it, cheers in advance) 

ECU0-216.thumb.gif.61c391b5754a75cd8b2c5fc057d1a1f9.gifECU1-216.thumb.gif.43a239b34b57a2a55744a01a29091caf.gif tempresult_uhz2.thumb.gif.0ef7b47e724cc4d7927252700927cae2.gif

 

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Just now, Seasonality said:

I bet there are some who'd still find something to moan about with this chart. 

ECE1-216.gif

Absolutely its still 216h away but apart from that its excellent! 😄 

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

I bet there are some who'd still find something to moan about with this chart. 

ECE1-216.gif

That's a right dumping about to happen for the NE hallf of Britain.

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ECM is phenomenal ends with energy going under, easterlies temporarily relaxed I suspect.

F0E02C4C-1682-4329-9472-860B6074EE53.thumb.png.aae8fdfcc299a5823567af7ad49cc1ee.png

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16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

So now battle is joined between the Euros and the rest.

JMA siding with GFS

JN192-21.GIF?03-12

I'm pretty sure most would go with ECM and UKMO at 144/168 and so would I but clearly nothing is cut and dried.

It's like the "cold" world war 2 Fv3,GEM UKMO&ECM vs the Japanese and German JMA and ICON ( except the old GFS) I think the allies will triumph AGAIN 😉

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ECM is finely balanced at 240hrs

image.thumb.png.1c570c900bd723415cb4caed4c4a5561.png

At this range, just small differences in orientation and position can make all the difference to the weather on the ground.

It's 'high risk' high reward potential for some but fascinating to pour over.

The upper air temps are not that cold so it's unlikelyto be a nationwide snowfest IMHO. Altitude, as ever, will help,

😆

Edited by Purga

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1 hour ago, snowray said:

FV3 much better...Here are all to runs so far out to T180 (UKMO T144), while we await the ECM.

gfseu-0-180-1.png

gfseu-0-180.png

iconeu-0-180.png

gemeu-0-180.png

navgemeu-0-180.png

UE144-21.gif

Well done ECM, you hero, snow showers in the east by D7, then likely battle ground scenario D9/10, lots of heavy snow potential for all of us.:cold::cold-emoji:

JMA awful, just as well it's the JMA so the complete opposite is likely.

Here are the last two from todays 12z runs to add to the others I posted earlier, ECM and JMA at T192.

Also worth bearing in mind that ECM has historically been the most accurate in the mid term range, ie T144-T192. 

ECE1-192.png

J192-21.gif

Edited by snowray

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Well done ECM, you hero, snow showers in the east by D7, then likely battle ground scenario D9/10, lots of heavy snow potential for all of us.:cold::cold-emoji:

JMA awful, just as well it's the JMA so the complete opposite is likely.

Here are the last two from todays 12z runs to add to the others I posted earlier, ECM and JMA at T192.

ECE1-192.png

J192-21.gif

Ec-is amp/placement queen..

So hedge to that on this occasion!

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20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm 12z..

Bungs us in winter proper...

And with given evolution...those 850's could improve..

As the time elapses!!!..

Peach run...with cream to boot....

ECH0-216.gif

and +8 uppers on the East coast of US, about time the pendulum swung our way (if it happened)

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It's very unusual for the ECM to be predicting a cold spell at this range instead of the GFS

Perhaps a very good signal for cold in mid December

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Just now, John Cox said:

It's very unusual for the ECM to be predicting a cold spell at this range instead of the GFS

Perhaps a very good signal for cold in mid December

Yes indeedy, and this is exactly why this run is so exciting. No one beats the ECM in the mid term T144-T192.😁

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1 minute ago, John Cox said:

It's very unusual for the ECM to be predicting a cold spell at this range instead of the GFS

Perhaps a very good signal for cold in mid December

It has been known.. 2012.. 

The ECM does have a tendency to massively over-egg amplification, or at least it used to. Remains to be seen whether or not that issue has been fixed. GFS op an outsider when compared with the GEFS mean so not too concerned for the time being.

Hopefully EPS/Clusters show something closer to what we all want to see and the Op doesn't end up being out on it's own.

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1 minute ago, John Cox said:

It's very unusual for the ECM to be predicting a cold spell at this range instead of the GFS

Perhaps a very good signal for cold in mid December

You have to be exceedingly wary of the ECM, John, major fingers burned a few years ago when basically it lost the plot 3 days out after predicting an ice age.

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4 minutes ago, John Cox said:

It's very unusual for the ECM to be predicting a cold spell at this range instead of the GFS

Perhaps a very good signal for cold in mid December

No it is very usual, happened every time since 15-16 at least: gfs picks up in t+240, disengages, ec picks up 8-10 range and a day later gfs, than GFS gets cold feet at 6-7 days than at day 5-6 EC disengages too

Edited by ArHu3

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4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

EPS day 6 in line with ECM Op & UKMO.

Heights extending up through the UK and into the Griceland region..  No support for GFS Op.

Expect gfs to fall in line if not on the 18z then 00z!!what a wonderful ecm though!!

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40 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I bet there are some who'd still find something to moan about with this chart. 

ECE1-216.gif

Other than it not verifying?😁

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