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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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I'm not going to watch EC, i feel i might be a curse lol.

Joking aside its fascinating model watching, UKMO looks identical to GEM at 144 and 'up she goes' springs to mind..

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4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

The real interest lies in the final week of December into January given the stratospheric vortex will be under intense pressure and may well have collapsed. Synthesising the GWO attracted to a phase 6-7 evolution suggests a proper episode of Greenland blocking (and more identifiably from the composites distinctive -ve height anomaly in the North Atlantic) and impacts of the strat warming being overlaid with that pattern.

1508976804_janphase6.thumb.gif.fab647e32ba452723a07ff35c6a11130.gif791861883_janphase7.thumb.gif.460923f2ddf98c6d5bd2d030e3eb9f4c.gif

 

Completely agree RE time scales

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ECM at 144 is 👍. Sure it will get posted by someone shortly

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ECM @ 144hrs

image.thumb.png.ff52f07cd258847fc7df25a7ba846f2f.png

UKMO @ 144hrs

image.thumb.png.b2fe88b9f4ba9b15a929f56dfd71254c.png

Both good - take your pick!

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ECM T168 is brilliant...sorry cant post chart.:clap:

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T168 850 chart, pretty similar to the FV3.

Edit: but with less cold in Europe.

 

ECH0-168.png

Edited by Stuie W

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, builds a cracking block. And this is only a week away now

image.thumb.jpg.598f33c5a17241ba1472fd66c5dbe1b8.jpg

Caution: 7 days is still FI, but that's a lovely chart!

Edited by mulzy

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Just now, Stuie W said:

T168 850 chart, pretty similar to the FV3.

 

ECH0-168.png

Its better than FV3.

Well done ECM and UKMO for consistency, 10/10!

Long may it continue.:oldgrin:

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So now battle is joined between the Euros and the rest.

JMA siding with GFS

JN192-21.GIF?03-12

I'm pretty sure most would go with ECM and UKMO at 144/168 and so would I but clearly nothing is cut and dried.

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168h Beautiful! 

Capture.thumb.PNG.cb7deb577e77e6b0009c322ccb0e7c86.PNG

 

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

So now battle is joined between the Euros and the rest.

JMA siding with GFS

JN192-21.GIF?03-12

I'm pretty sure most would go with ECM and UKMO at 144/168 and so would I but clearly nothing is cut and dried.

Very true, Mucka, Dec 9th is will I ridge or will I throw this forum into I told you so.

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2 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

168h Beautiful! 

Capture.thumb.PNG.cb7deb577e77e6b0009c322ccb0e7c86.PNG

 

It is indeed although its the 192!

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

It is indeed although its the 192!

Unfortunately but hopefully we can get it to 0h! Oh well I can dream! 😄 

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is indeed although its the 192!

PV looks stretched too..

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ECM is being consistent with its last run that is a positive! 

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