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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Total and utter garbage from the gfs!!and in all honesty knowing our luck its probably gona be spot on°!!!flat as anything!!

The majority of the ensembles from the 06z was against the operational.

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

12z GFS doesn’t look dissimmilar in all honesty...

4B8D9D08-04BD-401B-B582-DAD61B0EFFC9.png

Yes, very poor GFS.

UKMO best so far, GEM looking good too.

We are still in the game!

gfs-0-192.png

gem-0-192.png

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UK Met develops this wedge of relatively higher pressure which holds back the Atlantic low, GFS drives the low through...

You would expect the Uk Met to handle energy like this better than the GFS bit we're hanging our hats on the thin edge of a wedge!

 

image.thumb.png.be6cf8817c65c43318f4a02d98ffc75c.png

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I wouldn't worry to much about the old gfs op run but if FV3 para shows something similar then i will take notice.

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Good UKMO but the GFS is dismal with the upstream troughing piling too much energy east.

The UKMO though is different from this morning in terms of evolution so confidence in any solution is low .

It looks a bit more like this mornings ECM in terms of upstream trough set up , the GFS is a flat mess at T144hrs .

 

Edited by nick sussex

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Total and utter garbage from the gfs!!and in all honesty knowing our luck its probably gona be spot on°!!!flat as anything!!

Yes if easterly can go wrong in 4 days then very likely go wrong in  8 days !

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gfs-0-210.png?12

Heights and high pressure is still building over Scandi, even on this run. 

The atlantic looks like its been poked with a stick, and its not happy

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gemnh-0-198.png?12

 

Gem does look nice tonight, hopefully gfs is an outlier 

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14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Watch the GEFS go more wintry now... 

People shouldn't be surprised if the GFS is on the money here- we've seen it before. In the long run, I still maintain it won't make a lot of difference. We're still looking latter December/January for the core of this season's winter weather... And that hasn't changed.

Indeed, most long range forecasts are going for the highest chance of cold weather in January or February.  December more likely to provide transient cold snaps.

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This evening gem still close to ECM and the ukmo not the worst GFS is bit excited tonight shortwave galore.

But it's still not a done deal most likely know by Wednesday Thursday.

But still plenty of interest though.

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This is why I love winter Model watching, the chopping and changing, everything is still a mystery. GFS is a poor run to say the least, but at this stage i'm certainly for one not gonna worry about things until we get to within the 5 day time frame. Yesterday ECM wasn't having any of it, but today its like actually yeah I want some of that, now UKMO looks like it wants some of it on the latest. Now GFS has decided it doesn't want any of it,. Again it goes to show nothing is no where set in stone.

We have the GFS and ICON latest with more energy going over the the high with the cold not quite making it

UKMO and GEM looking really good, which I agree with a lot of others about the UKMO, have always thought they have been solid. So with this reason gives me a little confidence, not to say it won't change on the next run.

We now await the ECM and the Paralelle to update.

In the closer time frame i'm quite looking forward to the some of the stormy weather the charts are showing for the weekend, looks nasty for the North, though reckon there could well be some wintry showers as its moved through too, maybe some thundery showers further South along the coasts.

 

gfs-0-102.png

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Well GFS 12z might not be the eye candy at ground level but up in the strat its consistency is noteworthy..

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Stratospherically, the 12z GFS is a beauty and better than the earlier runs! It ends with a phenomenal displacement of the vortex.

I spotted that too mate, its lovely in the stratosphere!

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15 minutes ago, Don said:

Indeed, most long range forecasts are going for the highest chance of cold weather in January or February.  December more likely to provide transient cold snaps.

Aye Don...Forever chasing snow (and getting wound-up in model-thread hysteria) weeks before it's even expected, is as tiresome as it's unrewarding?

Give it another month and things'll be much better all round.

Edited by Ed Stone

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NAVGEM just out and has gone with the UKMO/GEM camp!

So 3 against 1 so far, 2 if you include the ICON.:oldgood:

navgem-0-180.png

Edited by snowray

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye Don...Forever chasing snow (and getting wound-up in model-thread hysteria) weeks before it's even expected, is as tiresome as it's unrewarding?

Give it another month and things'll be much better all round.

That’s correct.  Anything noteworthy this month will be a bonus IMO.

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GEFS out to 192. Some good runs in amongst them but if I was placing my bets based purely on the GFS and its ensemble suite I'd be going with mid lat / UK high. In essence close but no cigar. That said, its not the only data available so lets see what ECM brings.

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A crucial ECM coming up. Will it go with the UK model or GFS?

Let's hope it's not a half way house which keeps us guessing further.

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

That’s correct.  Anything noteworthy this month will be a bonus IMO.

True but I would prefer seeing this lot coming off and banking some cold and snow, anything could happen in January and February in spite of things looking positive at the moment, we all know how things can change and how we end up with the usual "near misses". 🙂

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GFSP out to +96h now, quite remarkable how different it is to the GFS at such a short timescale.  

gfsnh-0-96.png?12gfsnh-0-96.png?12

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Why people get worked up over the gfs I will never know  now if the ecm shows the same then its time to worry    para already different 

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4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Why people get worked up over the gfs I will never know  now if the ecm shows the same then its time to worry    para already different 

But we have said this many times, it's only the gfs and then the next EC came out and everything looked fine and then the next EC came and followed the gfs... 

 

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