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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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47 minutes ago, Spanish Dani said:

Yes I remember folowing the forum a few years ago in December, there was a huge let down I think it was 2012

I also remember all the models were showing a easterly all the way upto 72 hours only for one GFS run to suddenly show all the energy going over the high and sinking it into Europe then all the other models flipped in the same day can’t remember which year but it was one big letdown I’ll never forget 

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9 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

I also remember all the models were showing a easterly all the way upto 72 hours only for one GFS run to suddenly show all the energy going over the high and sinking it into Europe then all the other models flipped in the same day can’t remember which year but it was one big letdown I’ll never forget 

Yes I was in Dublin and Eire Met had even forecasted snow showers for like 3-4 days time but in the end never happened and Atlantic came back quickly.

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9 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

I also remember all the models were showing a easterly all the way upto 72 hours only for one GFS run to suddenly show all the energy going over the high and sinking it into Europe then all the other models flipped in the same day can’t remember which year but it was one big letdown I’ll never forget 

Could have been December 2012, Tom? Took everyone on here for a ride too, did that one!

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Could have been December 2012, Tom? Took everyone on here for a ride too, did that one!

Didn’t something very similar to this happen in January 2006?

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

Didn’t something very similar to this happen in January 2006?

Let's just say, many any Easterly has gone wrong over the years in fairly short time frames. The hope is with improved computing power and logarithms that we can be more assured of success once we get inside T+144.

 

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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Let's just say, many any Easterly has gone wrong over the years in fairly short time frames. The hope is with improved computing power and logarithms that we can be more assured of success once we get inside T+144.

 

Yes and also worry is that Met only see alternate settled/Atlantic weather , then mild for all around the Xmas time

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UKMO looks green to go at 144 ..thats only my opinion i might add but it looks very very similar to this mornings EC ..

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Superb UKMO

wintry showers moving over to snow showers filtering through scotland into the ENE -

Great blocking signal as well-

3785FC6C-271D-401D-B90F-63856AB7AA3E.thumb.png.4311ca7e22c011ee4cd8e7e8a93f5baa.png

Steve its virtually a copy of the 00z EC Det- if anything slightly better. 🙂

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Friday/Saturday could be quite the wind event, widespread disruptive winds assuming the GFS isn’t over-blowing it

00541349-3905-4942-8BC9-C47EA6C8482C.thumb.png.13ebb5075f05f80b60d7076a61899276.png

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32 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

I also remember all the models were showing a easterly all the way upto 72 hours only for one GFS run to suddenly show all the energy going over the high and sinking it into Europe then all the other models flipped in the same day can’t remember which year but it was one big letdown I’ll never forget 

So do I , it left me feeling very fed up lol!!

Hopefully this won't be repeated.. 🙂

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

So do I , it left me feeling very fed up lol!!

Hopefully this won't be repeated.. 🙂

The positive is that computing power and modelling algorithms have moved on a good way in the intervening years. So hopefully less chance of dangled carrots! 😁

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It was also the UKMO which didn't agree to the Easterly in December not the GFS. Which lead to the rule.of thumb being if the UKMO doesn't back it don't get your hopes up...

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GFS not has much ridging early doors for me on the 12 z.Not a big enough push from the atlantic imo.great ukmo  tho

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3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

It was also the UKMO which didn't agree to the Easterly in December not the GFS. Which lead to the rule.of thumb being if the UKMO doesn't back it don't get your hopes up...

It's not just the UKMO. Having ANY of the mainstream models not going for the E'ly against the others is worrying... I've seen times when the GFS hasn't bought into it and the ECM and UKMO eventually backed down. 

I really do detest easterly evolutions because you just can't bank on them not going wrong until inside 96 hrs. 

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6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

The positive is that computing power and modelling algorithms have moved on a good way in the intervening years. So hopefully less chance of dangled carrots! 😁

Plenty of dangled carrots last year too though where modeled north easterlies ended up as short north and northwesterly incursions (eg. the cold spell that ended up being the one that started 10th of December 2017 was much more impressive 7+ days out

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Yes, the GFS is poor (compared to its 6z run)

GFSOPEU12_168_1.png

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The GFS 12Z shows why we must remain cautious, a downgrade on the previous runs, we've been here before as well. Seems the Atlantic is still too strong.

12_177_mslp500.png

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UKMO + GEM all alligned nice- GFS scattergunning energy all over the option looking unlikely-

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52 minutes ago, snowray said:

Poor ICON 12z, even worse than its 00z run. Hoping for a lot better from the other models this afternoon, UKMO will be all important.😒

iconeu-0-180.png

12z GFS doesn’t look dissimmilar in all honesty...

4B8D9D08-04BD-401B-B582-DAD61B0EFFC9.png

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Good to see GFS being consistent then!

Guess it shows how easily this could go horribly wrong if nothing else.

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Total and utter garbage from the gfs!!and in all honesty knowing our luck its probably gona be spot on°!!!flat as anything!!

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