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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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144hr   mmm  is it going under?.  better ridging to the north.

gfsnh-0-144.png?6

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Is that a Murr sausage on the GFS 6z at T129 ? Or is it too small ? 

F5DE857A-BE0F-4224-91F0-DBE14FBB3B0A.png

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06 being  too progressive as usual,wait for the 12z

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Better trough disruption out to 152hrs 

156.thumb.png.b7c255ebe8df5deb0ccf24f995aaaa6a.png

The high has moved a little too far North-Westwards though, with no forcing on the low pressure system it'll push through the UK rather than go to the South - Somewhat similar to this mornings ECM

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… of course, there is always the danger of the high/block drifting too far west to our north, into NE Canada, which allows the Atlantic trough to merge with low heights to the NE and allowing low pressure to be pulled NE across the UK - as per 06z GFS.

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4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

06 being  too progressive as usual,wait for the 12z

But far less progressive than yesterday when it still had the bowling ball low too far East. At least now it is picking up the trough disruption. GFS is always 24-48 hours behind in these situations. 

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Just now, Nick F said:

… of course, there is always the danger of the high/block drifting too far west to our north, into NE Canada, which allows the Atlantic trough to merge with low heights to the NE and allowing low pressure to be pulled NE across the UK - as per 06z GFS.

This is actually where I see things going to be honest.

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It would appear there's more chance of Teresa may going under than this low but we live in hope!! hopefully sm comments come to fruition over the next few days ete

Edited by swfc
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I think the low pressure needs to be further south over next few runs it should trend further south ..

96E5E7A9-7A51-4359-BC14-02AEB392D71D.png

2E965D37-31C2-40C3-93D1-9659B0845E22.png

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Not sure why the positioning or track of that Low is so important. Unless you have the Jet swinging around the high back towards the UK there will be no deep cold backing west.

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From blizzards to briquettes in 48-hours - another 06Z turnaround. No worries, there's plenty of winter still to come.:cold:

Netweather GFS Image

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

From blizzards to briquettes in 48-hours - another 06Z turnaround. No worries, there's plenty of winter still to come.:cold:

Netweather GFS Image

Which is good, seeing as it's actually still AUTUMN! Easy to forget the start of winter is still a couple of weeks away yet!

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7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Which is good, seeing as it's actually still AUTUMN! Easy to forget the start of winter is still a couple of weeks away yet!

Exactly my point, Paul.:santa-emoji:

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10 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Which is good, seeing as it's actually still AUTUMN! Easy to forget the start of winter is still a couple of weeks away yet!

The British Isles - a magnet for mundanity 

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The steps away from cold in the 15D period increase on the ENS.

12z 

543718B4-5C6E-4FF0-A2EA-D23D89633D3D.thumb.gif.b0be80ce28b56ddd3867b2bd070e48d3.gif

00z

7E7C3F9E-0142-403E-BFB8-6704A290D741.thumb.gif.fd380e17ed5369739a06ef9afb5faae6.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The steps away from cold in the 15D period increase on the ENS.

12z 

 

00z

7E7C3F9E-0142-403E-BFB8-6704A290D741.thumb.gif.fd380e17ed5369739a06ef9afb5faae6.gif

Yes, overwhelming now in the extended period for a spell of BBQ's, yet only days ago we were talking shovels, scarfs and gloves.

GFSAVGEU06_312_1.png

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, overwhelming now in the extended period for a spell of BBQ's, yet only days ago we were talking shovels, scarfs and gloves.

GFSAVGEU06_312_1.png

I have a bad feeling about this, this blocking isn’t doing us any favours, seems like I need to get the BBQ out!

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, overwhelming now in the extended period for a spell of BBQ's, yet only days ago we were talking shovels, scarfs and gloves.

GFSAVGEU06_312_1.png

LOL, not sure I’ll be getting the BBQ out, but yeah the deep cold doesn’t look like hitting the UK at this moment in time.... 

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13 hours ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

The pendulum seems to be swinging back now towards deep cold by the months end. The Atlantic has never looked like coming back in anyway, but I think the great charts we were treated to a few days ago may soon be back on the table. Really like the projected set up for the end of the month, as I think it is very close to becoming epic, and for me at the moment, we are again now trending in the right direction.  

I'm not sure about deep cold. The calendar date cannot be ignored - and the risk that the trough stalls out west is real. As posted last night high AAM on a downward phase of the cycle wont be doing anything to help push that trough through, and it will have to push through a long way to deliver a proper easterly feed. My gut is, that from the position below, we see the Euro height stabilise with the trough stuck (feeding more mild air up over the south) before the next pacific cycle kicks in and helps force the ridge north once again.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.thumb.png.18cb6d77718a29226ec03ffbaab67631.png

Edited by Catacol
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12 hours ago, booferking said:

Yes i can also confirm this.😜

Screenshot_20181118-224903_Chrome.jpg

That's a classic MJO phase 8 December response for the atlantic sector. Quite possible. But maybe we might be a bit slower getting there - heights to move north from Europe first prior to retrogression. NWP Models often advance the pattern too fast.

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