The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Mike Poole]

FV3 at T360, what strikes me with this and a fair few other runs recently is that the whole purple PV is moved over to the eastern part of the hemisphere, never really seen this before, it's a really interesting development.  

We will have plenty of time to mull over precipitation etc. when and indeed if, this gets into the reliable!

Edited December 3, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

maybe im missing something then..granted im only looking at the GFS and ECM operational runs but neither show any vortex displacement over here?

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018120218&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

18z control run some snow showers from the east then the Atlantic tries to get in = possible battleground / frontal snowfalls (obviously not to be taken to literally at the moment but positive wintry signs continuing)

somewhere could end up with a good dumping of snow if the GFS P comes off 

P15 goes for a reload from the north and probably into the freezer in the week leading up to Christmas

 

control a bit of an outlier later on but still a good set of ensembles and the slightly less cold runs are probably more to do with the position of the high rather than Atlantic influence

  

[snowangel32]

Does anyone know where to access sea temps because surely if we did get lucky the warmer sea temps would produce massive moisture. Wich could cause very heavy snowfall. Still nail biting now until tomoz but blocking now looks odds on.

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 at T360, what strikes me with this and a fair few other runs recently is that the whole purple PV is moved over to the eastern part of the hemisphere, never really seen this before, it's a really interesting development.  

We will have plenty of time to mull over precipitation etc. when and indeed if, this gets into the reliable!

It's essentially as a result of the displacement events we've seen recently (and continue to see progged).

Entirely expected. In some ways, the displacements are doing us more favours at present than perhaps a full on split would. This is because with a split, we can't guarantee that it would occur in such a fashion that would allow blocking to manifest in a location that would benefit us the most. A displacement event (of the magnitude shown in GFS FI) would leave the Canadian sector bereft of ideas in regards to Canadian troughing. I think Feb and northwest have already covered this earlier on

All in all, the PV is having a tough time and it looks as though things may turn terminal for it in the long run.

[Mike Poole]

Strat vortex getting a real pummelling on the FV3 18z, here T384

Not a SSW, more a slow drawn out death! got to have consequences though... I think things are going to get very interesting later this month.

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Does anyone know where to access sea temps because surely if we did get lucky the warmer sea temps would produce massive moisture. Wich could cause very heavy snowfall. Still nail biting now until tomoz but blocking now looks odds on.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Edited December 3, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Tom Quintavalle]

3 hours ago, snowangel32 said:

Does anyone know where to access sea temps because surely if we did get lucky the warmer sea temps would produce massive moisture. Wich could cause very heavy snowfall. Still nail biting now until tomoz but blocking now looks odds on.

Hi sa32,

I see feb91 has sent you the above link. The site on the link below, will give you more specific temperature details, around our coasts at the moment:

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/

Regards,

Tom. 

[swfc]

10 hours ago, markw2680 said:

 

Ukmo looks ok .gFS this morning blows up a bit and a bit more active Atlantic wise

Edited December 3, 2018 by swfc

[Radiating Dendrite]

Normal default zonal garbage from the GFS in low res, but the output before showed a brief northerly and then a developing scandi ridge before a bowling ball low got blown up and thrown at it by goofus.

Edited December 3, 2018 by Radiating Dendrite

[CanadaAl]

Unfortunately too much power in the Atlantic in this run to allow the block to build and settle in Scandinavia. Could very well flip in the next run though. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

UKMO is excellent and would lead to the GFS(p) imo.  

 

BFTP

[SLEETY]

Fantastic gfs parallax again,with the high relocating to where we want it.Also unusual is that all the coldest air in the Arctic is on the European side and not the American side,with all roads leading to the freezer if this is anywhere near correct 

[Radiating Dendrite]

25 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

Unfortunately too much power in the Atlantic in this run to allow the block to build and settle in Scandinavia. Could very well flip in the next run though. 

Yeah, as I said this is fairly typical GFS. It builds the foundation blocks and then goes crazy once someone switches off the hi-res! 

[feb1991blizzard]

After 144, i was not expecting as good a 168.

 

Bullseye innaminnit!

Edited December 3, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Boom! ECM joins the party.

[bluearmy]

That’s six ec ops in which only one has failed to make the scandi ridge effectively (high enough latitude)

so important to get the Atlantic to split the flow and undercut if you’re looking for something to last 

add in the support from the Russian ridge and this is certainly going to attract the interest of those who should know ...... good to see ukmo day 6 is on board 

[Ravelin]

A 20C spread in the 850s for my location around the 11th suggests there's just a little uncertainty of the pattern around then. The Para/control is my preferred outcome, lol. 

 

[Chesil View]

Others have beat me too it but ECM looking good out to 216

[Dave Kightley]

240 ECM is very nice with -8 uppers over the UK  Lovely Scandinavian High! 

Edited December 3, 2018 by Dave Kightley

[Ravelin]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM and the GFS Para ain't a million miles apart at that point, and the Para goes on to lock in the cold out until the end of the run as can be seen in the 850s in my previous post. 

[Dave Kightley]

Will add if you live in North East USA you will be witnessing a 30 odd degree increase in upper air temperature between 192h and 240 on the ECM! Not a good run for you ha

[Seasonality]

Check out the end of the 00z GFS para. UK almost completely covered in snow. Just for sh***s and giggles this far out of course. 

[Dave Kightley]

If you look at the upper air profile on this side of the globe on the ECM at 162h to 240h you will will wonder where all the really cold upper air went in a matter of days.. Great run for the UK but everywhere else less it seems.. Usually happens when it is the UK turn for a cold spell, the cold air goes hiding! 

Edited December 3, 2018 by Dave Kightley