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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All !The usual seesaw of temperature change at this time of year but a little tease at the the very unreliable  timeframe of proper winter...in day ten from both gfs and ecm WOW!

poland.png

polandx.png

polandxx.png

Omarama_Fallstreak.jpg

polandxxx.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
12 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

T218 nice 1048mb high.

I've printed this one off 

And placed it on my bedroom wall next to Rachel Riley. 

18121200_0212.gif

Precip charts not the best, especially in FI, snow showers would be quite big off that, mainly E, NE, SE though

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Posted
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL

18z looking good! Ridge looks strong

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Precip charts not the best, especially in FI, snow showers would be quite big off that, mainly E, NE, SE though

Yeah very true. I use all other charts too.

I suppose I find the out come of the precip charts interesting to look at 

I'm also learning more about the  high pressures for the UK as we don't get this set up often for the UK in around T240 hrs or less.. 

I find the precip simulation interesting even though not cast iron. 

If it pulls of and we don't get wet and windy from the west 

Which equally could happen.

Going by that chart London could see stranded Range Rovers.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Blue max 90 said:

18z looking good! Ridge looks strong

Its good but i prefer the 12z, however thats coming off a very high base in terms of quality so was unlikely to upgrade again.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its good but i prefer the 12z, however thats coming off a very high base in terms of quality so was unlikely to upgrade again.

Wondering if the 18z will become a hybrid of the ECM and GFS 12z. Interesting to see where this high goes 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Blue max 90 said:

Wondering if the 18z will become a hybrid of the ECM and GFS 12z. Interesting to see where this high goes 

It could end up even better but further into FI, the ridge could be further North and get colder uppers to the East first before the Easterly occurs, this could mean lower 500mb heights over large part of UK, im not saying it will do that but its a possibility.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Ignoring earlier runs, this is a very good chart at 216.  Plenty of cold to tap into!

gfsnh-0-216.png?18  gfsnh-1-216.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Just now, CreweCold said:

There would be ice days for a few, even at this point with a 1040mb high and being mid December. Hard overnight frosts would be likely too.

Indeed, the uppers would be conducive with an easterly flow. 

234 looking very nice

gfsnh-0-234.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I think the models are homing in on the high locating around southern scandi/uk. May I be the first to christen such a high - the brandi high 

Looks a bit Scitish to me

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes the retrogression.

gfsnh-0-252_llu2.png

Amazing consistency from the gfs today it has to be said. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Amazing consistency from the gfs today it has to be said. 

Its gone wrong now but im more bothered about the ensembles by this stage - we need an upgrade with those.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its gone wrong now but im more bothered about the ensembles by this stage - we need an upgrade with those.

What was I saying about a December UK high Feb...

gfsnh-0-324.png?18

Well within the envelope of expectancy.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, CreweCold said:

What was I saying about a December UK high Feb...

gfsnh-0-324.png?18

Yes you did, The ECM seasonal had one of those highs similar to that for January a month or so back, lets hope that its been brought forward and that the proper blocking which has been progged for Feb a lot lately can also be brought forward to Jan after a serious road and pavement cooling in December - i have to say though im extremely cautious about all output lately though.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes you did, The ECM seasonal had one of those highs similar to that for January a month or so back, lets hope that its been brought forward and that the proper blocking which has been progged for Feb a lot lately can also be brought forward to Jan after a serious road and pavement cooling in December - i have to say though im extremely cautious about all output lately though.

I've always maintained that I expect January to be THE month...I hope so too.

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