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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Blue is correct of course, the 120-168 timeframe is now critical, its so finely balanced so wouldn't be at all suprised if there is a big split in the ens..

Weirdly NW, it has been around the 9th for days now and not pushed out further. i take that as time to reel in not keep searching but makes the next few days really nervy.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

But the main thrust is Exeter, why?

In response to NWS commenting on their changing outlook John.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Blue is correct of course, the 120-168 timeframe is now critical, its so finely balanced so wouldn't be at all suprised if there is a big split in the ens..

Given the clusters out to day 10 both looked amplified but the spread by day9/10 was huge to our north. We want to lose the greens to our north on the spreads and see some blues appear 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Given the clusters out to day 10 both looked amplified but the spread by day9/10 was huge to our north. We want to lose the greens to our north on the spreads and see some blues appear 

What time doe the ECM ens come out, Blue?

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
19 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

You know the cold potential has come back when there are over +150 members here!

 

And when you’ve got 5 pages to catch up on instead of 1.  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Blue is correct of course, the 120-168 timeframe is now critical, its so finely balanced so wouldn't be at all suprised if there is a big split in the ens..

Crucial to the model, aye. To the weather, less so?

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

One trend to make note of even in the "less" exciting runs of earlier and carried on tonight is all models (that go to that range) are starting to make a move with the PV over into the Siberian side. This ties in well with upcoming attacks on PV and potential strat warming into final third of month. 

Should add the sun has hit big 200 of spotless days - hopefully stays this way for next month or two.

Edited by Bullseye
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Early reaction from the ECM ensembles, here the mean at T192 and at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.356d1806daaa37c4137655c4384bf095.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.dff71f9fdf4bf396fa636bc00bbaec16.jpg

Looks to me like it supports what we've seen in the 12z op runs so far to be honest, building heights from the Azores, then on towards Scandi, 

Re the uncertainty going forward, here the spread T240:

image.thumb.jpg.3ecc782295f720b4d5a647c250e3c338.jpg

The uncertainty is in the corridor heading for us but we should know that by now!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Hmm, OP a bit of an outlier compared to the ENS.

EDH0-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I would say that the 12z eps and spreads are more in line with the 00z op than the 12z ...... uncertainty remains strong from the euro model 

Can we go middle of the road? The 12z big cold into Europe, 00z, nothing really soo...

 

Edit: ridic splitting hairs I know but...

Consistency to the 9th, OP back from it`s previous milder outlier.

graphe_ens3.png

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I would say that the 12z eps and spreads are more in line with the 00z op than the 12z ...... uncertainty remains strong from the euro model 

That's a little disappointing....

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Much closer agreement throughout this evening between the ECM mean and Op

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.737e87e540cea4c0e3282378ba3b1bd3.png

Huge spread towards end with the op going straight through the middle!

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Much closer agreement throughout this evening between the ECM mean and Op

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.737e87e540cea4c0e3282378ba3b1bd3.png

That’s on the 850s.  Synoptically there is quite a variance between the mean and op at days 9/10.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Looking at the above ECM ensembles and the below from GFS it’s now almost certain we will see a cold spell starting in a weeks time. Question is how cold and how long will it last and of course will there be any snow ? 

 

B1EE6F66-3153-4F2B-9FD4-522A11A0D16D.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looking at the above ECM ensembles and the below from GFS it’s now almost certain we will see a cold spell starting in a weeks time. Question is how cold and how long will it last and of course will there be any snow ? 

 

B1EE6F66-3153-4F2B-9FD4-522A11A0D16D.jpeg

1

At the moment it looks fairly low if the snow row is right but of course it's all subject to change at this range

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.90e0bb0b1ee3b55dfd6d99379a1d2270.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

At the moment it looks fairly low if the snow row is right but of course it's all subject to change at this range

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.90e0bb0b1ee3b55dfd6d99379a1d2270.png

And IF we get a feed from the East/NE, we await the precipitation...

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

 

all  i say watching  the  models  in fantasy world not  good  for the  sanity!! exp aft 200  hr!!

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
24 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

And IF we get a feed from the East/NE, we await the precipitation...

ENS give very good support to winds N backing to NE

image.thumb.png.2bbfbb74f57045df66b90e7271ea9799.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
18 minutes ago, Purga said:

ENS give very good support to winds N backing to NE

image.thumb.png.2bbfbb74f57045df66b90e7271ea9799.png

 

Sorry for being a pedant Purga, but I think northerly winds veer northeast...?

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