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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Ahh, cold plunge into Europe, this is better even though an adjustment west of the ridge required. Think the EC is trying it`s hardest to join the other crew.

 

ECH0-216.png

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

When you get one comment saying oh dear not looking good then the next one saying up she goes....confused.com

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Don't look if your of a nervous disposition....JMA horror show!

J192-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ec op better with the Atlantic dropping some troughing to our west - previous run pushed the Azores ne and over ran the ridge 

it merely illustrates how uncertain the whole nature of the amplification is - best to plump for the blocking over us - covers most bases ! 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

JMA at 168 is cold and remains below then slightly below average temperature alot of surface cold.

I'm liking the movement of low pressure on the JMA 

 

And the ECM a definite push west with the cold compared to this morning.

More runs needed though but still very optimistic

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

A lot of lala land hunting which is a bit like trying to get the perfect brexit deal. Some interest Wednesday as highest ground in Northern england and to lower levels in the south of Scotland as rumours suggest some white stuff as the next low pushes mild air north eastward. For England Friday Night into Saturday could be interesting due to strong winds. However with things changing quite a bit even at this short time period nothing is guaranteed. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, The PIT said:

A lot of lala land hunting which is a bit like trying to get the perfect brexit deal. Some interest Wednesday as highest ground in Northern england and to lower levels in the south of Scotland as rumours suggest some white stuff as the next low pushes mild air north eastward. For England Friday Night into Saturday could be interesting due to strong winds. However with things changing quite a bit even at this short time period nothing is guaranteed. 

Pit, it`s the search for cold thread.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Take this from ECM at the end of the run!

image.thumb.jpg.1ccb7cc19268f96acf819e6ff36226e2.jpg

 

Deffo, Mike.

 

ECH0-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
13 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Oh dear!  ecm not looking good at all

1804428683_ECM1-240(1).thumb.gif.0f7369c81d7daf5a424f8045c1ba7935.gif

The final frame looks a realistic evolution that would do nicely.

But like you say it's bit far out to be to confident 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is lovely this evening..

Big scandy high and cold and dry for the UK..

Id take that run right now.

I would definitely bank that run. Must admit I was a little nervous watching that run lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is lovely this evening..

Big scandy high and cold and dry for the UK..

Id take that run right now.

We can do with more seasonal weather and the key point is that it will be dry - about time!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I would definitely bank that run. Must admit I was a little nervous watching that run lol. 

Me too mate, i thought 192 was going to be a disaster 

As it is, it turned out really nice- big block to the NE at day 10--

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

As BA stated earlier probably best to go for the form horse of the high settling on top of us. Any sort of ridge up to scandi will then be seen as a bonus. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Nice. A cold pool sourced from the Russian Arctic covering most of Europe. 

ECH0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

And what does that add to the debate? The petty and immature points scoring is just pathetic.  Everyone here is entitled to an opinion.  You don’t like those comments then quite frankly you can bog off.  Grow up!

Some of the people saying we would start seeing charts like these appear now took great length, detail and effort doing so, the zonal for weeks didn't 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Moving on from the ECM D10, I wouldn't be surprised if it took the high NW.

Plenty of blocking around hopefully the strat can take a big hit at the end of the year.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Me too mate, i thought 192 was going to be a disaster 

As it is, it turned out really nice- big block to the NE at day 10--

Let's hope the 00z runs carry on with the upgrades matey. The 12z runs can certainly be classed as upgrades today

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Already looking forward to the ecm ens. Should be the coldest set yet in the extended - fingers crossed! 

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

The big positive this evening is a growing certainty of Europe turning much colder. It wouldn't take much of an Easterly further down the line to bring proper cold over us too.

For me a high in situ transferring eventually to Scandi is the likely route. So we're in the game for a decent cold spell in the lead up to Christmas but as ever it's high risk because a half way house would leave us in no man's 

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