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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Majority keep the UK cold, likely a block encompassing UK/Scandy/Benelux..

click on the link and we can actually see the change from previously- more colder members..

Unfortunately dutch doesn't machine translate very but the dutch met office gives guidance for the plumes, from the 8th 50% of members go for zonal, 20% for an incomplete block with the high sinking eastwards and 30% for a true block

 

 

https://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verwachtingen/extra/guidance-meerdaagse

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

I don't like the sound of this, I presume this *could* mean the jet stream is going to become even stronger? Honestly I dread to hear the words snowstorm in the eastern US & El Nino as it reminds me of the mild but very stormy winter 2013/14 

image.jpeg

yes not looking so good now,especially as that ties in with the latest METO update for the longer term.Oh well

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Eyes down for the 12s then, and I'm expecting the signal for blocking to increase v the 0z,  first out the traps ICON, here T180:

image.thumb.jpg.2a2f2af03aa2646c538997643ddd1d7e.jpg

And it's looking good!

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

yes not looking so good now,especially as that ties in with the latest METO update for the longer term.Oh well

Obviously the actual weather will be whatever it happens to be at that range. But in a way the Meto are also going with general climatology here as much as anything else. It is often the case that a dry and cold spell in mid December raises people's hopes of something seasonal for the festive period and puts a few pennies in the bookies coffers only for it all to get blown away a few days before the big day.

However it's still s long way off and much like Blue Army I'm sitting on the fence but keeping my fingers crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Ukmo at t144 is looking good. Ah Steve has covered this above.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looks a bit more amplified than its 6z run at 156hrs..

Indeed. Look at the cold air it would introduce to the north

6D0B363E-7505-4FC9-BCE1-328FCAA1445E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmmmm, perhaps a small shift towards something more amplified this evening!!

It’ll be gone by morning only to be back again by tomorrow evening.. seems to be a trend.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Fundamental difference on this run  is the “new” low in the Atlantic. 

86D25FF2-8D92-44E1-A6EE-979B0433B46B.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Hopefully, the HP will transfer into Scandinavia?

Netweather GFS Image

Couldn't be better:

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Cohen speaks of an event next weekend and you reference events between 2 and 4 weeks .......... incidentally, Exeter speak of settled and cold 

I wouldn’t normally comment but some less experienced members may be confused 

then turning unsettled and stormy again they said ,which seems to happen if very cold weather hit the Eastern Seaboard of USA .Anyway very nice gfs run 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs undercutting in fi 

Yes and where's the next one going, and where's the vortex going, big changes on the GFS, here at T222

image.thumb.jpg.6ae0d423041e782ff74bdf17aadfa4c6.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

This could be an epic FI, retrogression and another blast of WAA heading up the West of Greenland to help that - could be one massive Block here.

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