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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Major improvement on the EPS with heights building Northwards across the UK and into Scandi days 7-10. 

Ext. EPS 10-15 a very muted signal difficult to see which way it’s going so the clusters later this evening will be of interest

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36 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Depends who you call a knowledgeable one on here! But all joking aside, imo never dismiss the Met Office, they're genuinely one of the best in the world. 

I agree - I was talking about the weight I put on the depth of knowledge in here and how much I learn here from the analysis etc. Was actually meant as a compliment to many who post here and not a dig at the met office. Hey ho 🙄

 

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Let's not get in to a "Met Office vs. Knowledgeable Poster" debate in here, please. 

Agreed. There's no debate in it for me. The meto offer a fantastic service that has to be made easily understandable for the general public for whom a 40% chance of cold weather in 10 days time means nothing, for example. 

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1 minute ago, c00ps said:

I agree - I was talking about the weight I put on the depth of knowledge in here and how much I learn here from the analysis etc. Was actually meant as a compliment to many who post here and not a dig at the met office. Hey ho 🙄

 

My apologies for any misunderstanding. 

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Really.....?

See you next year guys, maybe there'll be no dispute as to professional opinions when we hit the 'epic' winter we've all been waiting for. It really could happen this year. I hope it does. Even though my family could have to temporarily live in a caravan through mid winter. Good luck... 

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9 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

My apologies for any misunderstanding. 

No apologies needed you had a respectful reply unlike some others...

It’s going to get interesting in the upcoming week. So much potential on the cards...let’s hope it all aligns 

Edited by c00ps

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This is a positive going forward, a way to go but going in the right directionimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9e

5D88B1BD-F201-4695-B336-40C9DE29E175.jpeg

Edited by fromey

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3 minutes ago, fromey said:

This is a positive going forward, a way to go but going in the right directionimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9e

5D88B1BD-F201-4695-B336-40C9DE29E175.jpeg

Yah, it's good...but not quite Carlsberg 😎 I'd prefer to see a spike here 

pole30_nh.gif

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3 minutes ago, jcw said:

Yah, it's good...but not quite Carlsberg 😎 I'd prefer to see a spike here 

pole30_nh.gif

Slowly slowly catchy monkey!! 

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32 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Really.....?

See you next year guys, maybe there'll be no dispute as to professional opinions when we hit the 'epic' winter we've all been waiting for. It really could happen this year. I hope it does. Even though my family could have to temporarily live in a caravan through mid winter. Good luck... 

I'm sorry to hear that Bobby. Hope it all works out for you and your family. 

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Eyes down for the pub run then, and just to make it clear what we are watching for, is here at T138, there is quite a distance between the low exiting to the east of the UK and the next one right the way across the Atlantic exiting the US:

image.thumb.jpg.fb7d23e4a901147ff1ae1a42e6aeb5dc.jpg

What's at stake is the extent to which a ridge can be pushed up in between, as starting to show T168

image.thumb.jpg.23738cf5e967da592d736c877d76f1b5.jpg

This will become our block.

Edited by Mike Poole

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Eyes down for the pub run then, and just to make it clear what we are watching for, is here at T138, there is quite a distance between the low exiting to the east of the UK and the next one right the way across the Atlantic exiting the US:

image.thumb.jpg.fb7d23e4a901147ff1ae1a42e6aeb5dc.jpg

What's at stake is the extent to which a ridge can be pushed up in between, as starting to show T168

image.thumb.jpg.23738cf5e967da592d736c877d76f1b5.jpg

imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eThis will become our block.

Yep and are block is right up at T192 mike .👍

608355A8-B6B1-4DAD-871D-DEA05CBFDC7F.png

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Eyes down for the pub run then, and just to make it clear what we are watching for, is here at T138, there is quite a distance between the low exiting to the east of the UK and the next one right the way across the Atlantic exiting the US:

 

What's at stake is the extent to which a ridge can be pushed up in between, as starting to show T168

 

imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eThis will become our block.

Another stonker coming up here.

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Pub run T300, block yes, UK high yes, will it move NE to allow the cold to flood in behind for the chance of snow?  We'll see...

image.thumb.jpg.92a9dcf72d5f95eb0a6c71b5521f1ea0.jpg

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Cold and Frosty leading into Xmas!

Capture.thumb.PNG.d8ddee832c6068e3704ea6b23362da3c.PNG

What's not to like 🙂

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It all went wrong with the PV strong but strat wise another very good run.

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Yep let’s remember it’s still quite far out so the ops will change run to run . Still a good run mind . If we can’t have blizzards , then cold and dry is the next best thing . That would be cold day and night . 

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I wonder actually if we are missing the bigger picture on this run, compare this chart at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.23c32257c9ebe57a0da27e94d928b6ad.jpg

2 segments of the vortex (purples) the larger one over Canada and the pole,  then this by T360:

image.thumb.jpg.88642ba91d1b405ed9228462c5bdad84.jpg

Ripped apart with entrails towards the east, reflected in the position of the strat vortex, here T384:

image.thumb.jpg.807233be6993967847c672cc43395ab8.jpg

As I said earlier today, it's a long way from home!

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I presume our zonal contingent have booked some emergency holiday to shelter from the incoming colder weather?

Fantastic move forward across the board today, stronger support on the GEFS/EPS for a pattern change to something colder, albeit far more settled. Day 10 Clusters offering a signal forward for the first time in what feels like weeks, 62% strong for high pressure over the UK extending Northwards towards Scandi. We can't discount the 37% that don't quite make it, but a vast improvement nonetheless.

590106199_Day10.thumb.png.39a324f5b46f542ab1a8d87b8fd7a18b.png

Just for fun, T360 shows a signal for blocking over Greenland and Scandinavia but also low pressure over the UK, all fairly equally represented within the EPS

Day15.thumb.png.42e7649425c125d0356783c3d3bf872e.png

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How's this for a good run, JMA 12z at T264, ideally placed block - the block is going to happen now I think, it's a question of where, but here's good:

image.thumb.jpg.be72f2bcb717017a7d551bc3b5da26f5.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.cb951e27175c4c7c681387863d210ee8.jpg

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Not a terrible mean chart by any stretch of the imagination. Not anywhere close to zonal either!

MEAN.thumb.png.58200e42356fc4bedd3318b74e99925d.png

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Not a terrible mean chart by any stretch of the imagination. Not anywhere close to zonal either!

MEAN.thumb.png.58200e42356fc4bedd3318b74e99925d.png

Heights need to be further north but not bad as you say.

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