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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

1927653389_ECM0-240(1).thumb.gif.7eb3b94dcea3fa8477fe44da69c49b7a.gifAnd look at the cold to our east blimey 09/10 winter Olympics in London lol 

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Make no bones....ECM will lead to a lot of proper cold coming from the East.  An excellent model run day, 3-4 days more of this......winter is IN with agreement.  Re East coast of US...indeed US...mild approach to Xmas coming me thinks

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

ECM is in on the action. Huge cold pool covering Europe. 

ECE0-240 (2).gif

8.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

Jet stream charts very interesting, from North, then the east and then at the end of the run, it look like more energy is going to be heading into the southern arm of the Jet with is in Southern Spain, hopefully happy days ahead for us coldies, and hopefully we can have it till Christmas, although that maybe too much to ask and obviously if these charts verified.

hgt300.png

hgt301.png

hgt302.png

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset

A nice dry ,cold and sunny run up to Christmas will help the retail sector no end.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
8 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

A nice dry ,cold and sunny run up to Christmas will help the retail sector no end.

Yes its a lovely run...

Look forward to a temprature watch by day 9/10.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
38 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

And look at the east coast of America brrrrrr

Sorry mate, East Coast US not too bad, think your comment is regarding Canada.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Not checked the output since this morning, but very pleased to see that things are coming along nicely now.  Blocked well before Christmas seems to be the repeated scenario, and lots of very cold air being shown for Europe once we get that easterly flow, giving the potential of some very cold air for us eventually.  I can hear Bing Crosby tuning up his voice already !

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well you get to T240 and the ECM mean is saying yes, this cold period is going to start, what next, open to question, 

image.thumb.jpg.eecc136ca3e78a348171cc4ed06823af.jpg

at 10 days this is one hell of a signal from the ECM mean.  Not a bad first day of winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Nice to see all models heading in the cold direction.How cold? and whether we get snow still to be decided but lovely trend as we head deeper into December that's for sure. I might even start to feel festive if this carried on lol.?️?️?️

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The means seem to edge the upper ridge a little further east, run by run. The ops keep building those scandi ridges but the truth may end up with a cold block over nw Europe .........

the amplification looks pretty certain but how that plays out for the uk remains very uncertain 

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

excellent output  from all models however I will hold back my excitement until the Met Office fully come on board remember folks these charts are still 10 days out let us  not get too carried away just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
1 minute ago, syed2878 said:

excellent output  from all models however I will hold back my excitement until the Met Office fully come on board remember folks these charts are still 10 days out let us  not get too carried away just yet.

like usual lol

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Massive drop in the GFS ensembles compared to earlier ?? (White, second set are from earlier and black from this evening )

6A2C2FC7-0256-42A3-82C9-753341AB08BE.jpeg

3E2F82AB-F75C-40DF-888F-C2BB1F3BB6B6.png

Thank goodness for that, Tim...for a second there, I thought you were all hallucinating!:fool:

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The means seem to edge the upper ridge a little further east, run by run. The ops keep building those scandi ridges but the truth may end up with a cold block over nw Europe .........

the amplification looks pretty certain but how that plays out for the uk remains very uncertain 

Shown on the Geopotential mean

image.thumb.png.71d3829bfff3c7e91b76c4d5faa46df9.png

A good chance here but finely balanced especially at this range.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
On 26/11/2018 at 19:07, gottolovethisweather said:

Ah, those weekend model suite wobbles strike again and again. The trend is our friend and despite not following the model runs myself, I am happy to go with the consensus that the 2nd week of December is where coldies should be focussing their attention, even if it is purely a dry cool/cold settled spell to kick things off. The 10-day plus forecasts on the BBC news channel which I tend to watch religiously should start picking up on such signals later into the week, with cold weather getting a mention again.

 

I have not been viewing the NWP outputs myself, just relying on you guys but little has changed in my mind from my thoughts this past Monday. A drier, potentially colder than average period of weather could well be heading our way by the end of the next working week. Who knows what week two and the middle of December might offer us? But all eyes on the 10-15 dayers from here on in. Beggars cannot be choosers as my thoughts are well known over the weekend wobbles, but I just hope these charts are still showing some cold/very cold solutions come Monday and Tuesday. Bring on something crisp, sunny and cold please, weather gods, 15 to 16c down South today and tomorrow by Christ!

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

 

any thing could happen after 200  hr in deep- fantasy world!!!

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