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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
3 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Surprised there’s not more comment on the control. It’s better than the op. Unfortunately can’t upload charts at the minute 

Here we go. 

tempresult_ehe4.gif

tempresult_gqr0.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Surprised there’s not more comment on the control. It’s better than the op. Unfortunately can’t upload charts at the minute 

snowy short lived cold pool, deepest FI though, around 348

gens-0-1-348.png

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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL

Apprentice question here.  I have looked back to 10-11 days ago for projections of the weather for this week, and Nov 20 cold hunters were happy-ish but by the next day it was game over with the Atlantic pushing through lead up to the seasonal toy hurling competition.  What gives you more condfidence now, that we won’t get a rinse and repeat of zombie zonal in 10 days.  - serious question.  Thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
4 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Apprentice question here.  I have looked back to 10-11 days ago for projections of the weather for this week, and Nov 20 cold hunters were happy-ish but by the next day it was game over with the Atlantic pushing through lead up to the seasonal toy hurling competition.  What gives you more condfidence now, that we won’t get a rinse and repeat of zombie zonal in 10 days.  - serious question.  Thank you.

We never really do but mjo is going through phases 7,8,1 and the global wind index is apparently favorable (mjo phases are easy to follow, for the wind index you need to read Tamara, Glacier point and catacol's posts) so this has some potential. Usually cold scenarios get watered down the closer they come though but who knows, maybe we get lucky 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Canadian warmings are rear but this year has been rare weather wise.

There is a certain feeling of a 09/10 winter this year.

Absolutely why not a Canadian warming thrown in,

solar minimum,

mix a bit of wave activity and mjo.

weakerzonal winds you get a good winter.

And let's not forget the record breaking strat warming back in February.

2008 back end was cold then look what in 09/10 

The vortex is already displaced of the pole over to Scandinavian side very similar to 09/10 solar minimum winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Apprentice question here.  I have looked back to 10-11 days ago for projections of the weather for this week, and Nov 20 cold hunters were happy-ish but by the next day it was game over with the Atlantic pushing through lead up to the seasonal toy hurling competition.  What gives you more condfidence now, that we won’t get a rinse and repeat of zombie zonal in 10 days.  - serious question.  Thank you.

I see one of several scenarios playing out: the short-lived cold pool will disappear; the short-live cold pool will stall over the North Sea; it will slide merrily into France and Spain; it'll expand exponentially and last until late March...? As an outside bet, it'll behave exactly how the GFS suggests...

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM thumbs up so far T144:

image.thumb.jpg.d51d77118b857ce547edf95ab100df0f.jpg

This amplification in the Atlantic west of us  is the push that we need to get into the reliable, it's close now!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Its good from the ec-raw..

And-as again the formats are connecting.

Partial ridge..but with overide....

The polar annom is steadfast..

Along with pac -punching..

Ps stop nicking my wordings!!

ECH1-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

snowy short lived cold pool, deepest FI though, around 348

gens-0-1-348.png

Yes I take back my comment. Only had a quick look. The op looks longer lasting

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS for sure moving in the right direction for coldies..

Are you still depending on Exeter jumping on board?  Their outlook is yo yo Ing ?  Bit like the Ops

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Are you still depending on Exeter jumping on board?  Their outlook is yo yo Ing ?  Bit like the Ops

 

BFTP

I'm always of the opinion they are the pro's and their updates should be absolutely respected and taken note of.

Its an active jet we are looking at so in truth i'm not sure anyone truly knows how Dec is going to pan out Fred, iv'e made my thoughts clear, i felt there was scope for a pattern change, but equally it could change again.

The PV looks disorganized at present so thats a positive for now..

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Canadian warmings are rare but this year has been rare weather wise.

There is a certain feeling of a 09/10 winter this year.

Absolutely why not a Canadian warming thrown in,

solar minimum,

mix a bit of wave activity and mjo.

weakerzonal winds you get a good winter.

And let's not forget the record breaking strat warming back in February.

2008 back end was cold then look what in 09/10 

The vortex is already displaced of the pole over to Scandinavian side very similar to 09/10 solar minimum winter.

1901187903_ECM1-192(2).thumb.gif.ab40f2c4e6ed2927d5273be252bbf6fb.gif

It's ok bit flabby but that's a very beefy block will it won't it 

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

A good flip to cold by the ENS withe Op + Control ad idem, which is a positive sign

image.thumb.png.9d58b610078e0ff2fa025e77c192145f.png

Will ECM be the 'eye in the flointment' though? ☹️

image.thumb.png.05fc0874a2dd6d046305fa125a4f5de6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
1 minute ago, Purga said:

A good flip to cold by the ENS withe Op + Control ad idem, which is a positive sign

image.thumb.png.9d58b610078e0ff2fa025e77c192145f.png

Will ECM be the 'eye in the flointment' though? ☹️

image.thumb.png.05fc0874a2dd6d046305fa125a4f5de6.png

There are defiantly more colder members south of that red line good trend so far today just hope we don't lose the trend!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

ECM gets there tho . Get in . 

EB91B4C6-871C-4403-B86E-6C8DC2C14B95.png

055060C8-C849-4AFB-A148-2485B914EE05.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

GFS vs ECM at 216.  Pretty good consistency 9 days out.  Looking very good to me.

gfsnh-0-216.png?12  ECH1-216.GIF?01-0

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

GFS vs ECM at 216.  Pretty good consistency 9 days out.  Looking very good to me.

gfsnh-0-216.png?12  ECH1-216.GIF?01-0

And look at the east coast of America brrrrrr

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

GFS vs ECM at 216.  Pretty good consistency 9 days out.  Looking very good to me.

gfsnh-0-216.png?12  ECH1-216.GIF?01-0

GFS putting more energy in the southern arm though//

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS putting more energy in the southern arm though//

Indeed, but plenty of time for adjustments in our favour though.  The 240 isn't too far away given where we were yesterday morning!

ECH1-240.GIF?01-0

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Day ten is good as well on the ECM . The trend continues. Brilliant output today . 

5A3ABFC9-252A-4EB0-9421-603303D0C834.png

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