Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GEFS 6z also looking better . Some cold members now appearing, going towards the -10 850s mark .

9E27C5B3-0EDC-4DAE-83DF-B0455BCA5066.png

Still less than 50% (inc op) that are cold enough for snow. Keep the champagne on ice...lots more ups and downs to come with this one 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Still less than 50% (inc op) that are cold enough for snow. Keep the champagne on ice...lots more ups and downs to come with this one 

Oh there definitely be ups and downs , it’s never plain sailing . Just though I’d post them as there looking a lot better than they were a few days back .

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Just a quick heads up. The meto 16 to 30 day update is much more positive for coldies. The cold theme makes a welcome return in their forecast. 

But the updates are so fluid its difficult to have much confidence longer term..

I remain cautiously optimistic but thats not worth the paper its written on if i were to be honest.

We could do with stewarts input really as the mechanisms at play are defo above my limited pay grade- key for me is 120-168hrs, if we can get that azores high punching a hole in the jet then all options are on the table inc an eastery..

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

But the updates are so fluid its difficult to have much confidence longer term..

I remain cautiously optimistic but thats not worth the paper its written on if i were to be honest.

We could do with stewarts input really as the mechanisms at play are defo above my limited pay grade- key for me is 120-168hrs, if we can get that azores high punching a hole in the jet then all options are on the table inc an eastery..

Exactly! Their updates are flipping back and forth almost as often as the models - Though understandably given the huge uncertainty, does make it difficult to use them to support an idea on either side. 

I'm still expecting high pressure to build across the UK mid month and extend towards Scandinavia, whether or not we tap into deep cold however I'm still on the fence next to Bluearmy, we've cracked open the sandwiches and ordered some cushions. 

Ext. EPS not much help. Means are not much help. Clusters not much help though do show us just how uncertain things are. One positive is there are more EPS/ENS individual members trending colder around mid-month but again.. doesn't tell you a whole lot. 

Edited by Daniel Smith
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

 

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

 

 

 

13 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Exactly! Their updates are flipping back and forth almost as often as the models - Though understandably given the huge uncertainty, does make it difficult to use them to support an idea on either side. 

I'm still expecting high pressure to build across the UK mid month and extend towards Scandinavia, whether or not we tap into deep cold however I'm still on the fence next to Bluearmy, we've cracked open the sandwiches and ordered some cushions. 

Ext. EPS not much help. Means are not much help. Clusters not much help though do show us just how uncertain things are. One positive is there are more EPS/ENS individual members trending colder around mid-month but again.. doesn't tell you a whole lot. 

You guys have hit the proverbial on the head IMO...There's such a high degree of entropy around, at present, that feigning certainty would be the utmost folly?

Edited by Ed Stone
at 'present', even!
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Control is the best, but run at low res

gens-0-1-276.pnggens-0-1-312.png

The control & Op are run at the same resolution I believe 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The control & Op are run at the same resolution I believe 

No, I don't think that's right, the control and the op are run with the same starting conditions (i.e. no perturbations) but the resolution of the control is lower, the same as the perturbations.  So if the control and op differ markedly, it suggests resolution is an issue therefore one should reduce the weight put on the whole suite? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The control & Op are run at the same resolution I believe 

The control run is run at a lower resolution but has no adjustments made to the raw data (same as GFS Op).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

No, I don't think that's right, the control and the op are run with the same starting conditions (i.e. no perturbations) but the resolution of the control is lower, the same as the perturbations.  So if the control and op differ markedly, it suggests resolution is an issue therefore one should reduce the weight put on the whole suite? 

That would make far more sense.. 

I wonder what would happen if you used the same starting data at the same resolution.. I suspect it could still end up being different purely thanks to the chaos theory

Edited by Daniel Smith
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
10 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

That would make far more sense.. 

I wonder what would happen if you used the same starting data at the same resolution.. I suspect it could still end up being different purely thanks to the chaos theory

It would end up exactly the same.

Unless I am misunderstandng what you mean?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I feel quite a bit more optimistic than some on here today. We have had a few good ecm op runs on the bounce which is always a good sign. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
On 25/11/2018 at 14:21, Man With Beard said:

Clusters still indicating push of heights in the Atlantic between 6th and 9th - but split between cool and cold outcomes. Clusters 1, 3 and 5 hold some interest for the colder outcome. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018112500_300.

Hey, thought I'd bump this one from list Sunday up. Many have been complaining that the ensembles are all over the place, and incapable of picking up detail at range, and I was thinking they'd had a difficult week myself, but here's this morning's clusters 6 days on. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018120100_204.

That's not bad consistency from D14 to what is now D9! 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Hey, thought I'd bump this one from list Sunday up. Many have been complaining that the ensembles are all over the place, and incapable of picking up detail at range, and I was thinking they'd had a difficult week myself, but here's this morning's clusters 6 days on. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018120100_204.

That's not bad consistency from D14 to what is now D9! 

I get your point but the first set are for the 7th Dec and the second set are for the 9th Dec. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
13 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

UN72-21.GIF?01-17

 

De Tweet bekijken van @MJVentrice:

If Michael Ventrice is right things are starting to look good for us as this configuration is often a precursor for a ssw

 

 

 

The bonce is on!!

Ventrice is the ace man 4 flux-momentum!!..

And thats 'some plot'...for gain in the euro quadrant.

Also the minimal spikes around the iberian seg-will carry/aid the juice.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • European State of the Climate 2023 - Widespread flooding and severe heatwaves

    The annual ESOTC is a key evidence report about European climate and past weather. High temperatures, heatwaves, wildfires, torrential rain and flooding, data and insight from 2023, Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Chilly with an increasing risk of frost

    Once Monday's band of rain fades, the next few days will be drier. However, it will feel cool, even cold, in the breeze or under gloomy skies, with an increasing risk of frost. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Dubai Floods: Another Warning Sign for Desert Regions?

    The flooding in the Middle East desert city of Dubai earlier in the week followed record-breaking rainfall. It doesn't rain very often here like other desert areas, but like the deadly floods in Libya last year showed, these rain events are likely becoming more extreme due to global warming. View the full blog here

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather 2
×
×
  • Create New...