The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Polar Maritime]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm of the opinion that the new GFS is a lot better than the last...?

It's certainly been over-ruling the old Pete.

[Yarmy]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm of the opinion that the new GFS is a lot better than the last...?

Marginally, and not enough to particularly favour one over the other yet (imo)...

Both still way off the ECM/UKMO. 

Edited November 26, 2018 by Yarmy

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Marginally, and not enough to particularly favour one over the other yet (imo)...

Both still way off the ECM/UKMO, though. 

I think it was day 8/9 where the difference showed .......

[Yarmy]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think it was day 8/9 where the difference showed .......

The 0z is better at Day 10 currently...

...but significantly worse at Day 10 on the 12z runs...

So who knows? Presumably they are still messing with it prior to putting it live so perhaps comparisons are unfair, but it doesn't look like the big improvement you'd hope.

 

[Sweatyman]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

some very cold and snowy runs beginning to appear on the GFS and ECM for my location

not exactly a surprise is it!

[Ventnor Viking]

GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs

The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI 

Edited November 26, 2018 by Shaftesbury Snow

[feb1991blizzard]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think it was day 8/9 where the difference showed .......

To be honest though at D9, surely you're not a million miles away from chocolate fireguard territory for operational forecasting anyway.

[Smiler1709]

2 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs

The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI 

Wow bold statement pal, the models flip and change more than my underpants. Things could look very different in the next 2 weeks. Long range signals 2 weeks ago showed northern blocking and a cold start to December. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs

The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI 

Late jan???? Can i have saturdays lottery numbers please.

Edited November 26, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Mucka]

GFS 12z has already made a significant move toward the Euros and UKMO by comparison is more consistent re Arctic/Scandi block building.

UKMO

GFS 00z/12z comparison.

Watch for GFS to continue to correct toward Euros should ECM repeat tonight.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs

The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI 

Are u for real ? . Yes we’re gonna be in for some zonal for the next 10 days , but come on writing off the whole of December . I will quote your post in 10 days and I bet you it will look completely different to what we’re having now . See ya in ten days

[ArHu3]

8 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs

The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI 

We are entering mjo phases 7,8 and 1 should give us some blocking potential in 2 weeks from now 

Edited November 26, 2018 by ArHu3

[SMU]

All 4 afternoon models look good for pattern change ~168 onwards--

Not sure what all the doom is TBH...

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

The 0z is better at Day 10 currently...

...but significantly worse at Day 10 on the 12z runs...

So who knows? Presumably they are still messing with it prior to putting it live so perhaps comparisons are unfair, but it doesn't look like the big improvement you'd hope.

 

IMO Yarmy, we won't see any 'quantum leaps' in computer modelling until there's been a quantum leap in computers themselves...? Not meaning to be over-pessimistic, but I think the law-of-diminishing-returns is king, right now...

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

We are entering mjo phases 7,8 and 1 should give us some blocking potential 

But aren't we currently very close to the 'circle of death'?

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

All 4 afternoon models look good for pattern change ~168 onwards--

Not sure what all the doom is TBH...

Glad you popped in Steve . Like I just said above it will all look completely different in 10 days time (for the better) . 

[Ventnor Viking]

1 minute ago, Smiler1709 said:

Wow bold statement pal, the models flip and change more than my underpants. Things could look very different in the next 2 weeks. Long range signals 2 weeks ago showed northern blocking and a cold start to December. 

Not a bold statement at all. 

Long term models weren't showing that, IF I remember rightly it was only the GFS mainly and ECMWF didn't at all, which was hated for being accurate.

By pattern change I mean proper blocking etc not just transient notherlies. Can you suggest anything different short term  and why? Apart from all this background signal talk which guarantees nothing

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Whilst the most of us wait for cold, at least the weather doesn't look boring, with frequent bouts of wind and rain crossing the country for the next week or so. Luvvly Jubbly.

 

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But aren't we currently very close to the 'circle of death'?

Looks to have edged well out by the looks of things but I'm no expert and know very little about MJO diagram charts maybe someone with more knowledge can answer the question?

Edited November 26, 2018 by booferking

[Yarmy]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

IMO Yarmy, we won't see any 'quantum leaps' in computer modelling until there's been a quantum leap in computers themselves...? Not meaning to be over-pessimistic, but I think the law-of-diminishing-returns is king, right now...

Well, I mean relative to itself. For all the investment put in, there's still a yawning chasm between it and the ECM/UKMO.

[Ventnor Viking]

7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Are u for real ? . Yes we’re gonna be in for some zonal for the next 10 days , but come on writing off the whole of December . I will quote your post in 10 days and I bet you it will look completely different to what we’re having now . See ya in ten days

Gladly. Let's talk then.

Ten days ago it was let's wait until next week or we will see upgrades in 48-76 hours.....which didn't happen.

I'll post something later to keep you all happy with my fingers crossed and a wink saying "God that mild South westerly looks cold....we will be blanketed"

I think desperation and excited takes over logic sensibleness sometimes.

 

[SLEETY]

gfs has the  right  idea,trying to get the high to retrogress towards greenland .Could be a belter fl coming up

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

Gladly. Let's talk then.

Ten days ago it was let's wait until next week or we will see upgrades in 48-76 hours.....which didn't happen.

I'll post something later to keep you all happy with my fingers crossed and a wink saying "God that mild South westerly looks cold....we will be blanketed"

I think desperation and excited takes over logic sensibleness sometimes.

 

If you can't see a strong signal for a pattern change then you are not looking in the right  places tbh.

It is always fair to say we cannot know it will happen but to say there are no signs of it in the output is simply incorrect IMO.

 

[Johnp]

24 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs

The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI 

Late January?

More like late next week according to this GFS.

[SLEETY]

yes nearly there at 252 hours let’s hope it’s a new trend it’s found

 

Easterly incoming!! We are on the train again

Edited November 26, 2018 by SLEETY