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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m noticing some changes to the strat height forecasts today .... I wouldn’t be counting any chickens at the moment re size of displacement or any split to follow  .... also the eps much more mean upper ridge in our vicinity in the extended ........ a watching brief for a few runs methinks ...... 

Does that translate to an uptick in optimism or downtick?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Thought I might post the latest GEFS ensembles, just to clarify things a bit:

GEFS Ensembles Chart GEFS Ensembles ChartGEFS Ensembles Chart

A steep rise in pressure towards month's end...Otherwise?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
47 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

For those looking out for Christmas weather, ECM  ensemble mean 12z certainly doesn't rule out something from a northerly direction, will take a few days before the uncertainty is resolved, ECM mean T240:

image.thumb.jpg.a58cc0beaf3b700e1300014a65d8e23b.jpg

The models have been playing about with some kind of (brief-ish) Northerly/North-Westerly flow on and off in the last few days on their runs, so certainly could be possible. Would be kinda nice to have something a little white for Christmas. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does that translate to an uptick in optimism or downtick?

 

Glad I wasn't the only.one who couldn't understand that one.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Thought I might post the latest GEFS ensembles, just to clarify things a bit:

GEFS Ensembles Chart GEFS Ensembles ChartGEFS Ensembles Chart

A steep rise in pressure towards month's end...Otherwise?

 

That looks possible. Those lines on that last chart do seem to show a bit of a trend of going up towards the end of December.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

That looks possible. Those lines on that last chart do seem to show a bit of a trend of going up towards the end of December.

Sorry RS, my bad; it's the temperature graphs that don't clarify anything. The rise in pressure was the only 'trend' I could find!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does that translate to an uptick in optimism or downtick?

Let you know after I have seen the clusters .....either big support for mid lat high in our vicinity or something with more traction than that .... could be the start of a new scandi ridge ...... ties in wirh a developing west Russian trough 

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl

Speaking on twitter to a guy tonight who literally loves all things vortex related, he is massively optimistic about the current and future warming's, believes a split is likely, not UK based but still thinks a Xmas northerly for us is not out the question either.

Lets hope he is reliable

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
51 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

Speaking on twitter to a guy tonight who literally loves all things vortex related, he is massively optimistic about the current and future warming's, believes a split is likely, not UK based but still thinks a Xmas northerly for us is not out the question either.

Lets hope he is reliable

From what I've been reading on here the chances of an SSW looks good as we are no longer focusing on T384 charts. I do believe SSW events do increase our chances of cold substantially but if we get a split vortex then we must avoid a lobe falling into the North Atlantic. It can happen and an SSW is therefore not a guarantee of UK cold.

A fair bit of time before it comes into play though but its easy to see why we chase SSW events so much as the payoffs can be great, as seen with February this year. Fingers crossed.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
27 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Sorry RS, my bad; it's the temperature graphs that don't clarify anything. The rise in pressure was the only 'trend' I could find!

It’s okay, not really your fault, Ed. To be fair, I probably just misinterpreted your post, somewhat.  

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
47 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

The models have been playing about with some kind of (brief-ish) Northerly/North-Westerly flow on and off in the last few days on their runs, so certainly could be possible. Would be kinda nice to have something a little white for Christmas. 

Other than Turkey breast?!

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

I was wondering whether strat stuff, particularly debates, could be better placed in the strat thread? Otherwise the strat thread becomes rather redundant. I know it's entirely relevant to this thread but I feel the content/science is too complicated for new members (including me at times as well) and what this thread is really for, ie. GFS, ECM runs etc. 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I was wondering whether strat stuff, particularly debates, could be better placed in the strat thread? Otherwise the strat thread becomes rather redundant. I know it's entirely relevant to this thread but I feel the content/science is too complicated for new members (including me at times as well) and what this thread is really for, ie. GFS, ECM runs etc. 

That's fine but would a simple picture paint a thousand words? Warming at 10 hpa showing for a few days now

Screenshot_20181215-214515.png

Edited by JeffC
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
16 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Other than Turkey breast?!

Just happen not to be overly keen on turkey breast. It’s not bad, but prefer chicken more. Just as longs as something white occurs on Christmas Day, then that would be fine.

(well, hopefully the models could just make some of the white stuff magically appear on that day anyway lol ❄️)

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
correcting mistakes
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just happen not to be overly keen on turkey breast. It’s not bad, but prefer chicken more. Just as longs as something white occurs on Christmas Day, then that would be fine.

(well, hopefully the models could just make some of the white stuff magically appear on that day anyway lol ❄️)

Fair enough, don't mind a bit of leg or breast,but accompanied with at least 4" of snow that would be all the more welcome!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
13 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I was wondering whether strat stuff, particularly debates, could be better placed in the strat thread? Otherwise the strat thread becomes rather redundant. I know it's entirely relevant to this thread but I feel the content/science is too complicated for new members (including me at times as well) and what this thread is really for, ie. GFS, ECM runs etc. 

I agree and disagree. 

While the models aren't showing anything of particular interest I think it's okay to talk about the goings on in the Stratosphere, especially given the Strat forecasts are also on the GFS and ECM runs. 

It helps to know whats happening in other areas that relate to our weather because then it can be used to "predict" what the models are showing and how what they're currently suggesting might be wrong. 

Plus, I feel like the Strat thread is way, wayyy above many peoples heads (often including mine) where as in this thread, Strat talk tends to be far more, simplified I guess. 

Anyway. Extended EPS seems to suggest a signal for high pressure just West and then over the UK by day 15, not really a HLB that'd bring cold, clusters will be more revealing of course

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

4 inch of snow may cause shrinkage  Jeff

What, even more? 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Hate to spoil the fun, but probably best to get back with the model chat. Who knows how many inches we’ll get (if the white stuff does happen).

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

Couple of tweets from Ian F regarding timings of SSW. 

Screenshot_20181215-224723.thumb.jpg.f1ccbb1129464ddc28b8da86cf9c0c3c.jpg

So all still to play for and suggestions of GFS being slightly to aggressive at this given time?... 

 

 

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